Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, seven Republican-dominated Southern states, including Texas and Georgia, are the most likely to engage in gerrymandering — the drawing of congressional maps that favor one political party over the other, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal-leaning policy institute. Nine states, including New York and Virginia, are expected to draw more-balanced maps than they did after the 2010 census, due to procedural overhauls or because the state is no longer under single-party control. California, Illinois and several other states could see fights over how to improve representation for communities of color. Highest risk are states that combine single-party political control of the redistricting process with fast growth and demographic change. They also will not be required to obtain preapproval to use maps under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. High-risk states are slower growing but are under single-party control and are no longer covered by Section 5.

Source: “The Redistricting Landscape, 2021-22,” Brennan Center for Justice, Feb. 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/44mtxw25

Data for the graphic are as follows:

State Gerrymandering Risk Category
Alabama High risk
Alaska Not applicable
Arizona State to watch
Arkansas Not applicable
California State to watch
Colorado More balanced maps likely
Connecticut Not applicable
Delaware Not applicable
District of Columbia Not applicable
Florida Highest risk
Georgia Highest risk
Hawaii Not applicable
Idaho Not applicable
Illinois State to watch
Indiana Not applicable
Iowa Not applicable
Kansas Not applicable
Kentucky Not applicable
Louisiana More balanced maps likely
Maine Not applicable
Maryland Not applicable
Massachusetts Not applicable
Michigan More balanced maps likely
Minnesota Not applicable
Mississippi High risk
Missouri Not applicable
Montana Not applicable
Nebraska Not applicable
Nevada Not applicable
New Hampshire Not applicable
New Jersey Not applicable
New Mexico Not applicable
New York More balanced maps likely
North Carolina Highest risk
North Dakota Not applicable
Ohio More balanced maps likely
Oklahoma Not applicable
Oregon State to watch
Pennsylvania More balanced maps likely
Rhode Island Not applicable
South Carolina High risk
South Dakota Not applicable
Tennessee Not applicable
Texas Highest risk
Utah More balanced maps likely
Vermont Not applicable
Virginia More balanced maps likely
Washington Not applicable
West Virginia Not applicable
Wisconsin More balanced maps likely
Wyoming Not applicable

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