Energy Warfare

Introduction

People walk down a dark street in Kyiv, Ukraine, during a blackout caused by Russian attacks on the country's energy infrastructure. Russia's invasion has unraveled the traditional global energy order. (Getty Images/LightRocket/SOPA Images/Sergei Chuzavkov)

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Overview

The conflict in Ukraine, now almost a year old, has increasingly become a war over energy access and supplies — or what one observer has called “World War E.”1

As the battlefield situation has tipped in Ukraine's favor, Russia's battered invasion force has focused its firepower on Ukraine's civilian energy infrastructure. Intense missile barrages and drone attacks have destroyed electricity substations in every corner of the country, leaving millions of civilians without power or heat as they begin 2023. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said Ukraine's power grid is a legitimate military target, but the United Nations warns that its destruction could constitute a war crime against noncombatants.2

That is only one front of this emerging energy conflict. European countries responded to the original invasion last year with sanctions on Russian exports, including those of oil and natural gas — and they are now moving to purge all forms of Russian energy from their economies.3

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses Congress on Dec. 21 to plead for continued U.S. economic and military aid to beat back Russia's invasion. Within days, Congress approved additional assistance. (AFP/Getty Images/Mandel Ngan)

Moscow reacted to the sanctions by shutting down the pipeline that delivered its natural gas to many of Ukraine's European allies, forcing them to compete in global markets for scarce alternative supplies. Then the pipeline was damaged by a series of explosions that raised suspicions of Russian sabotage. Some analysts say the Kremlin hopes the pain of a long, cold winter will induce European governments to end their support for Kyiv. Others say Russia's gas cutoff is final, reflecting the worst tensions between Russia and the West since the Cold War.4

Most recently, the European Union (EU) halted all purchases of Russian oil while the Group of Seven (G-7) major industrialized nations imposed a price cap on Russian oil shipments to the rest of the world.

These tit-for-tat moves and countermoves reflect the weaponization of Russian energy supplies and European markets and the addition of a costly and disruptive dimension to the war.

With an end to the war nowhere in sight, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Washington just before Christmas to plead for continued U.S. economic and military aid during Oval Office talks with President Biden and at a joint meeting of Congress.

“In two days, we will celebrate Christmas,” Zelenskyy told the packed chamber. “Maybe candlelit. Not because it's more romantic, no, but because … there will be no electricity. Millions won't have neither heating nor running water. All of these will be the result of Russian missile and drone attacks on our energy infrastructure.”5

Two days later, Congress cleared a $1.7 trillion spending bill for fiscal 2023 that includes at least $44.9 billion in economic and military aid for Ukraine, bringing the total of U.S. expenditures on the conflict to more than $100 billion.6

For veteran analysts, today's energy war comes at a particularly uncertain time for a global economy that is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels but is slowly transitioning to renewable energy sources due to rising concerns over climate change. As a result, these analysts say, the war is causing the old global energy order, with its long-established geopolitical norms, supply chains and markets, to unravel. And the new energy landscape reflects the subsequent crisis: global shortages, extreme price volatility of oil and gas and a major reshuffling of global energy flows, as Russia, other major producers and consumer countries scramble to adapt.7

“The global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine” is “delivering a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity” and is “causing profound and long-lasting changes” in the world's energy markets, the U.N. International Energy Agency (IEA), the world's leading energy authority, said in October.8

Moscow's willingness to cut off its European natural gas customers, who depended on Russia for nearly half of their gas supplies, is just one example of how the war has upended the global energy order. Another is Saudi Arabia's decision to join Moscow in slashing production, despite fierce opposition from the White House — a move that has opened fractures in the nearly 80-year-old U.S.-Saudi Arabian oil relationship.9

A gasoline station in Tustin, Calif., displays its increased prices on March 8, 2022. While U.S. gasoline prices have fallen significantly since then, the conflict in Ukraine has roiled energy markets. (Getty Images/Los Angeles Times/Gary Coronado)

Another example is the EU's recent move to halt all purchases of Russian crude oil, which follows the bloc's embargo on Russian coal earlier this year. In addition, the G-7 imposed an unprecedented sanction on global seaborne shipments of Russian crude: a price cap of $60 per barrel. To strengthen the West's leverage over Moscow, the sanction also forbids European actuaries, such as Lloyds of London, which have long dominated energy markets, from insuring vessels carrying Russian crude to non-European countries, unless the oil is sold at a price at or below the cap.10

“The idea is to get the oil on the market, but at a reduced price [that is] enough to make the Russians want to produce it, but not so much that they're making a ton of money to fund their war effort,” said Samantha Gross, an energy analyst at the Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank based in Washington.11

It is far too early to tell whether the price cap will work. Many energy analysts are skeptical of the West's power to dictate the price of oil to one of the world's largest petrostates. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin banned the sale of oil and refined petroleum products from Feb. 1 to July 1 to any nation that implements the price cap. Analysts say they are waiting to see if Putin's ban takes enough oil off the market to raise prices, suggesting Russia's oil revenues could remain high despite its sales ban.12

Long Description

Meanwhile, the established energy flows between producers and consumers, what veteran oil analysts call energy “trunk lines,” have become another victim of the war-induced unraveling. Most of the Russian oil that once supplied Europe with 2 million barrels a day — 40 percent of Moscow's crude exports — is flowing via pipeline and tankers to China and India. Those countries, in turn, will buy less oil from Latin America and West Africa, says Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based energy consultancy.13

“So, we shouldn't be naive enough to expect that [because of the price cap] China and India are not going to continue buying Russian oil. They will,” says Lipow.

Since the cutoff of natural gas from Russia, European governments have secured some natural gas and oil from producers in Africa, Australia, Azerbaijan, Norway, the Persian Gulf and the United States to help get them through this winter. They managed this by outbidding their competitors, says Rachel Ziemba, an energy expert with the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank. But she notes developing nations that lack good credit and available funds to compete have been the losers in these bidding wars. (See Short Feature.)

“These are tectonic shifts. Global markets were built on these trunk lines, of [natural gas] supply going between Russia and Europe, and both oil and gas between the Middle East and Asia,” said Roger Diwan, a veteran oil analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, a data and analytics firm in London. “We don't know how this market is going to function after a certain date. The adjustment will be dramatic…. It's going to be confrontational, and it's going to be volatile.”14

Just how volatile became clear in September, when a series of powerful explosions blew huge holes in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines running between Russia and Germany beneath the Baltic Sea. Swedish investigators later discovered traces of explosives at the damage sites, indicating that sabotage was involved. Western intelligence agencies strongly suspect Russia was behind the blasts, but Moscow has denied any involvement and blamed Britain. London has dismissed the accusation.15

The Washington Post, citing nearly two dozen diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine European countries, said Russia may not be responsible for the attack, but it may not be possible to determine conclusively who was behind it. Others maintained that Russia remains the prime suspect.16

Robert McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based energy consultancy, believes the Kremlin ordered the sabotage so its state-owned energy giant Gazprom could claim force majeure — the legal term for unforeseeable circumstances that prevent fulfillment of a contract — in a German lawsuit for failing to fulfill its contractual supply obligations. “They can say, ‘Oops, somebody blew up the pipeline. We can't be held liable,’” he says.

But McNally, a senior energy adviser to former President George W. Bush, adds that he also sees the sabotage as an irrevocable declaration that Russia was divorcing itself from Europe with regard to energy because of the EU's support for Ukraine. “It was done to cause Europe dismay and panic,” he says.

Some analysts say the explosions also sent a warning to Norway and other European countries that their gas pipelines under the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea also could be targeted. Norway has since deployed troops to guard its energy infrastructure, Germany has stepped up security for its power grid, and Italy has increased naval patrols along its Mediterranean pipeline routes.17

Long Description

Alex Munton, a Houston-based analyst who follows natural gas markets for Rapidan Energy Group, says Russia's halt of natural gas shipments to Europe has caused severe shortages and skyrocketing prices on the small amounts of gas trickling in from alternative producers.

Before the Ukraine invasion, when supplies were plentiful, Munton says, European customers were paying around $12 per million British thermal units (mBtu) during the winter and $6 per mBtu in summer, when demand was lower. Now, he says, they are paying $40 per mBtu — still far less than in August, when gas prices in Europe reached $100 per mBtu.

“In terms of oil, that's the equivalent of paying $600 for a barrel,” Munton says. That would be nearly eight times the current price of oil on the global market.18

The high prices have forced European countries to make unpleasant and sometimes drastic changes to their energy use. “Coal is back for home heating,” Munton says. “So are oil-fired power plants. Germany had planned to close its nuclear power plants, but now they're keeping them online.” On the commercial side, Munton adds, Europe's ammonia industry has closed due to the gas shortage, and its heavy industry is operating at a much lower level.

With no alternative market for most of the natural gas it sold to Europe, Moscow has slowed production in western Siberia, triggering higher gas prices, particularly in Europe, for the foreseeable future, many analysts say. And worries over high energy prices now trump climate concerns as the strongest driver for a faster transition to renewables, some say.

“The geopolitics of the war in Ukraine and energy security at an affordable price will make this energy transition happen potentially much more rapidly than any concerns over climate,” Munton says. “The only question is: Can renewables deliver?”

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol is optimistic, citing the tens of billions of dollars that Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will invest in companies that are researching and developing energy sources and technologies that will reduce carbon emissions. For example, the measure will fund a nationwide infrastructure of electric vehicle recharging stations. Birol also points to multibillion-dollar green energy initiatives underway in China, the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. Fossil fuel use could peak within a decade, spelling the end of the gasoline era, the energy agency predicts.

“Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — not just for the time being, but for decades to come,” Birol said. “Even with today's policy settings, the energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this an historic and definitive turning point toward a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system.”19

But others argue that forecast is unfounded. “The IEA did not cite any evidence to justify its new policy-driven peak demand forecast when it was introduced,” McNally says. Such predictions could mislead investors, he adds, and “exacerbate collapsing investment in conventional energy supply, threatening vital energy supplies the world will need later this decade.”

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Background

Ongoing Fight for Oil

The weaponization of energy in wartime is nothing new.

Oil became a much sought-after and much targeted commodity in both world wars. During World War I, U.S. companies controlled 70 percent of the world's oil production, which they shipped across the Atlantic to supply Britain and France's newly mechanized forces. The oil eventually fueled U.S. forces once they entered the war in 1917. Meanwhile, Germany and its allies relied on coal to power their trains but lacked sufficient oil to fuel their trucks, tanks and aircraft.20

Britain also needed oil to fuel its globe-spanning naval fleet. It leveraged its military gains on the Eastern Front to seize control of most of the oil-producing nations in the Middle East. In a speech after the Allied victory in 1918, British conservative statesman Lord George Curzon, triumphantly declared: “The Allies floated to victory on a wave of oil.”21

In 1941, the United States cut off oil sales to Japan in retaliation for the Japanese invasion of French Indochina, an action that prompted Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor and the U.S. entry into World War II. Meanwhile, British and Soviet troops invaded Iran to prevent its oil fields from falling into Nazi hands and to secure Allied supply lines to the Soviet Union.22

During the Cold War, in 1953, the CIA and British intelligence toppled Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh out of fears he might share Iran's oil wealth with the Soviets. After the 1973 October War in the Middle East, Arab producer nations withheld their oil to punish supporters of Israel. When Islamic revolutionaries overthrew Iran's pro-Western monarchy in 1979 and later took U.S. diplomats hostage in Tehran, President Jimmy Carter led an international effort to boycott Iran's oil. Later that year, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan sparked fears of a takeover of the oil-rich Persian Gulf, prompting Carter to warn that the United States would defend the region as a vital U.S. asset. The turmoil roiled oil markets, constantly raising prices.23

An abandoned Iraqi tank sits in the Kuwaiti desert in 1991 as an oil well burns during the first Gulf War. Former President George H.W. Bush, concerned about energy security in the unstable region, pushed for the U.S.-led offensive to liberate Kuwait after Iraq's invasion over disputed oil reserves. (AFP/Getty Images/Pascal Guyot)

In September 1980, mounting tensions between Iran and neighboring Iraq erupted into a full-scale war in which their oil facilities became prime targets. The air strikes and pipeline shut-offs that occurred during the eight-year conflict severely reduced the oil exports of both nations, raising global oil prices yet again. As a result, President Ronald Reagan bolstered U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf to protect Arab oil facilities and tankers carrying oil to allies.24

In 1990, a dispute between Iraq and Kuwait over the Rumaila oil field straddling their border led to Iraq's August invasion and occupation of the nation. President George H.W. Bush declared that Iraq's move threatened both the economy of the United States, which imported half of its oil from the Persian Gulf, and the independence of Kuwait's neighbor, Saudi Arabia, whose protection Bush called a U.S. “vital interest.” Over the next six months, a U.S.-led coalition of international forces massed in Saudi Arabia and went to war to liberate Kuwait in January 1991. By the end of February, Iraqi forces had surrendered. But before that, they set fire to more than 700 Kuwaiti oil wells, creating an environmental disaster and a health hazard for thousands of U.S. and coalition troops.25

In a different type of consequential global event, the world was rocked by COVID-19 in March 2020, which quickly grew into an international pandemic. Lockdowns reduced the demand for oil, resulting in falling prices. To raise prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel formed in 1960 to exert stronger control over oil markets, cut production by an unprecedented 10 million barrels a day.26

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Current Situation

Unsettled Markets

As the global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to play out, analysts say oil and gas markets remain volatile, buffeted by the conflicting pressures of new Western sanctions on Moscow and fears of a worldwide recession.

These analysts say they are waiting to see whether the sanctions remove significant amounts of oil from global markets, pushing prices higher, or if lingering concerns over a global economic slowdown reduce energy demand and lower oil prices.

“Energy markets right now are really uncertain,” said Gross, the Brookings energy analyst. “There are strong forces pulling in opposite directions.”27

Two new sanctions, which took effect Dec. 5, aim to reduce Russia's ability to fund its military campaign against Ukraine. They include the EU boycott of most seaborne Russian crude oil, as well as the G-7's $60-per-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil exports. The cap also requires that Europe's shipping lines, maritime insurance companies and banks that dominate the oil industry comply with the cap. A third sanction, an EU boycott of Russia's seaborne refined petroleum products, or distillate, is slated to go into effect on Feb. 5.28

It is still unclear how much Russian crude oil and petroleum distillates the EU boycotts could take off the global market. In a Dec. 14 report, the IEA predicted that the sanctions would cost Russia sales of about 400,000 barrels a day by the end of 2022. The IEA also predicted that Russian oil production would fall from the current daily level of 11.2 million barrels to 9.6 million barrels by the end of the first quarter in 2023, a drop of 14 percent.29

The impact of the G-7's price cap is also unclear. Putin has declared that starting on Feb. 1, and for the following five months, Russia will not sell its crude oil or refined oil products to any country that observes the cap. Putin also has threatened to cut production, which could raise global oil prices and cushion his revenue losses.30

By offering discounted prices, Russia has so far been able to redirect most of the crude it once sold to the West to customers in China, India and NATO-ally Turkey, which have now become its biggest oil buyers, says Lipow, the Houston-based consultant. These are some of the new global trunk flows that are replacing the old order's Russia-Europe supply line.

“This is an unusual time,” says Rapidan Energy Group's McNally, especially for someone trying to predict the future price of oil amid such global turbulence. Looking back at his three decades as an energy consultant and White House adviser, he recalls the market upheaval from the Gulf War and the 2008 financial meltdown. But he stresses those crises occurred one at a time and years apart.

“Now we're dealing with two energy crises at the same time,” he says. “On one hand, there's the EU boycotts of Russian oil and distillate and the price cap, which should take oil off the market and make oil prices go higher. On the other hand, there's this risk of recession, which would cause oil demand — and prices — to go lower. So, you've got two moving targets.”

Limited Supplies, Options

The unpredictability surrounding the oil market was underscored in the aftermath of the October decision by OPEC+, the cartel made up of OPEC members and 10 other oil-producing countries, to reduce production quotas by 2 million barrels a day in order to stabilize oil prices. Those prices had fallen from $139 per barrel in March soon after Russia invaded Ukraine — a record high based on fears of reduced supply — to $85 per barrel by September, a drop spurred by recession concerns.31

Cartel officials hoped the production quota cut would stabilize prices at around $90 per barrel, according to Kate Dourian, an oil expert with Middle East Economic Review and a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute think tank in Washington.

But prices have continued to fall due to reduced demand, which analysts attribute to China's recent COVID-19 lockdowns, rising interest rates and a worsening global economic outlook. On Jan. 6, benchmark Brent crude was trading in London at around $79 per barrel.32

Delegates at an Oct. 5 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia in Vienna discuss their plan to cut their collective crude output by 2 million barrels day to halt declining oil prices. (Getty Images/Anadolu Agency/Askin Kiyagan)

Meanwhile, Rapidan gas specialist Munton says the energy crisis created by Russia's cutoff of natural gas exports to Europe continues to inflict damage on both sides.

For example, he notes, the gas that European governments have secured from Norway, Qatar and the United States represents a fraction of the 140 billion cubic meters of gas they imported via pipelines from Russia in 2021.33

The subsequent shortages are keeping European gas prices high, requiring a return to coal- and oil-fired power plants in some countries and forcing many Europeans to bundle up inside their homes to stay warm.

Meanwhile, Putin's gas cutoff to Europe also has left Russia with few alternative customers and limited means to supply them, Munton adds. Russia continues to export gas to non-European customers from the western Siberian fields aboard specialized tankers in the form of liquified natural gas. But the western Siberian plants can only liquify 57.4 million metric tons/cubic meters of gas annually, according to a November Statista report.34

Realistically, Munton says, the Asia-Pacific region is the only export option for Russia's excess natural gas supply. But unlike the oil that Russia has been able to redirect via pipelines and tankers from Europe to China, India and Turkey, the gas that used to go to Europe is far more problematic. That gas comes from fields in western Siberia, where a matrix of pipelines transported it to Europe before the Ukraine war. But Munton says no pipeline exists to redirect the gas eastward to China.

Russia and China have been talking for several years about building such a pipeline, which would cost as much as $80 billion to build and require a decade to complete, Munton says. The two sides have been unable to reach an agreement that would allow construction to begin, he says.

“Both sides have a lot of power in that negotiation,” Munton says. “Russia holds the gas; China has the market. But who's going to pay for the pipeline? Who's going to sink all the capital into building this thing, with all the risk that it carries? And what's the price of the gas going to be? You're not going to build a pipeline without knowing the customer is going to buy the gas at an agreed price. So, it's become an absolute beast of a project with a very uncertain outlook.”

In the meantime, he says, most of the Russian gas that used to go to Europe remains off the market, and gas prices will remain “in orbit” for the foreseeable future.

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Outlook

More Expensive, More Demand

Professional Putin watchers see no end in sight for the war in Ukraine. But veteran energy analysts predict that, in the developed world at least, the energy crisis spawned by the war will wind down within the next year or two.35

By then, they say, Western countries that once depended on cheap Russian energy will have secured new suppliers and built infrastructure to receive their exports, establishing new energy trunk lines to replace the old energy flows.

“There's going to be a redirection of the energy flows,” Rapidan's McNally says. “Energy markets can be pretty dynamic, flexible and accommodating.”

But McNally cautions that financing, contracting and insuring the tankers needed to transport oil and liquified natural gas to Europe from the United States and the Persian Gulf will make that energy far more expensive than what arrived via pipeline from Russia.

Diwan of S&P Global Commodity Insights says those costs are driving developed economies to invest billions of dollars in renewable energy sources. “What you see is a big relocation of resources toward clean energy, with a lot of capital available, even in a not-very-favorable global economic environment,” Diwan says. “It will look better in 12, 18, 24 months, when we're on the other side of the inflation mountain.”

IEA's Birol has trumpeted initiatives such as the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, predicting its billions of dollars of investment in green energy development will reduce reliance on fossil fuels and help slow global warming.36

With multi-billion-dollar green energy initiatives also underway in China, the EU, India, Japan and South Korea, Birol predicted fossil fuel use in the developed world could peak within a decade.37

Others are not so convinced.

In mid-December, Bloomberg energy columnist Javier Blas wrote that he has seen no signs of a peak in oil consumption, neither in current data nor any reliable short- and medium-term forecasts. Indeed, he noted the IEA itself recently predicted global oil demand would actually grow by 1.7 million barrels a day this year, despite continued inflation, rising interest rates and the lingering economic effects of the coronavirus in Asia.

“It's difficult to see any signs pointing to a zenith in oil demand,” he said. “To achieve the Holy Grail of peak oil demand, first the world needs to show signs that consumption growth is starting to slow down — and quite materially. That's yet to happen.”38

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Pro/Con

Will the energy crisis sparked by the Ukraine conflict hasten the global transition to renewable sources?

Pro Christy Goldfuss Chief Policy Impact Officer, Natural Resources Defense Council. Written for CQ Researcher, January 2023 Russia's brutal assault on Ukraine is being funded by fossil fuel money — increasing energy prices around the world and driving home, once more, the urgent need to speed up the shift to clean energy. Every bit of clean, renewable power from the wind and sun generated in the United States or its allies strikes a blow against Russia's ability to wage war against its neighbors and hold the world hostage to its fossil fuel exports. A continuing dependence on oil, gas and coal, in fact, is a strategic Achilles’ heel — at home and abroad. It whipsaws our families and businesses with global price hikes and supply shocks beyond our control. It feeds the military machinery of belligerent petrostates such as Russia. It empowers them to wield energy supplies as a weapon. It also distorts the global balance of power, allowing nations that do not share American values to undercut U.S. diplomacy. The answer from the fossil fuel industry and its Capitol Hill backers is, as always: “drill more.” The plain truth is, we can't drill our way to energy security. If we could, we would have done so by now. In just the past decade, U.S. crude oil production has risen by 80 percent, averaging 11.4 million barrels per day in the first 11 months of 2022. If you add hydrocarbon liquids produced from oil and gas wells and refined much like crude oil, total domestic production rises to 17.7 million barrels per day — an all-time record. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, that is enough to meet 87 percent of U.S. oil demand — if the fuel stayed in the country. However, it does not. The industry exports 9.6 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined petroleum fuels and lubricants, twice as much as just a decade ago. And only one-fifth of that goes to Europe. Twice as much — about 4 million barrels per day — is exported to five countries: Canada, China, India, Mexico and South Korea. Domestic production can never shield the country from global price and supply shocks, especially since the oil industry prioritizes sales overseas to the highest bidder. That's why investing in renewable power is the true path to energy security. No matter how much the industry drills, U.S. consumers remain dependent on oil — and the dictators who manipulate oil prices for their own designs. The way to break free of the tyranny of fossil fuels is to speed up the shift to clean energy. Russia's savage assault on its neighbor is one more reason to do it now.

Con Emmet Penney Editor-in-Chief, Grid Brief, contributing editor at Compact Magazine, Host of Nuclear Barbarians podcast. Written for CQ Researcher, January 2023 Much of the world is pursuing a transition to renewable energy in response to the current energy crisis created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The United States, for example, has just committed a record amount of money for renewable energy deployments with its Inflation Reduction Act. The political reality cannot be denied. But what of the physical reality? Can the transition to wind and solar work? No. The goal of the transition is to decarbonize society by electrifying more human activities using mostly wind and solar. But these sources generate electricity intermittently. They can't be called on to generate electricity when you need them. Battery storage cannot affordably be built to accommodate wind and solar, either. We cannot increase demand while destabilizing supply without also increasing the price of electricity and the likelihood of blackouts. Decarbonization with renewable energy has only worked with a large amount of hydropower, but there are only so many rivers to be dammed. Elsewhere, in Ontario, Canada, and France, decarbonization has been achieved using nuclear power. Indeed, the story of the past year has been a tale of coal's resurgence (sometimes with renewables' help), rather than a transition away from fossil fuels. The push for renewables-only electricity will mean greater fragmentation of electricity production and/or higher emissions. Consider California, which has invested billions in renewables. Local communities have taken to diesel generators to stabilize their electricity supply. California now has a diesel aggregation equal to 15 percent of its total electricity capacity, or 24 times the size of its battery storage capacity. Or take Germany, where coal has reclaimed its crown — due to its nuclear phase out and the loss of Russian gas imports — despite tens of billions spent on the transition to renewables. Had California and Germany invested in nuclear instead, their grids would already be clean. The truth is, wind and solar were never meant to work alone — they were to pair with just-in-time natural gas, which can ramp up when the sun sets or the wind lulls. Renewables have only met with success where they have combined with natural gas to phase out coal. This was previously understood by both the natural gas industry and environmentalists who worked together against coal. But that coalition has perished and, with it, that understanding. Sadly, more pain will be required to relearn this lesson as political aspirations crash into physical reality.

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Discussion Questions

Here are some issues to consider regarding energy warfare:

• Why has Russia cut off its energy exports to most of Europe? How are countries responding to this move? Do you think these strategies are fair?

• What is Nord Stream, and why are the recent attacks on it significant?

• How has the limited energy supply affected developing countries?

• Why are these energy market disruptions happening at an especially fraught moment?

• How did the international fight over control of Iran's oil shape that nation?

• What is OPEC, and how does it influence the global energy market?

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Short Features

Energy Wars Hit Developing World Hardest

In Sierra Leone's capital, Freetown, in West Africa, violent clashes this past August between police and citizens protesting the soaring price of gasoline left 25 dead, including five police officers. In Indonesia, more than 600 similar protests had erupted by October, compared with just 19 in 2021. In Ecuador, there were more than 1,000 gasoline price protests in June alone.1

In Sri Lanka, where the COVID-19 pandemic decimated both foreign remittances and the country's tourism industry, the rising costs of oil imports have nearly depleted government coffers. To settle a $251 million bill for past Iranian oil supplies, Sri Lanka resorted to barter, sending Iran $5 million worth of tea leaves every month.2

All around the world, the price of oil and gas has fluctuated wildly as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, its cutoff of natural gas supplies to Ukraine's European allies and the West's retaliatory sanctions against Moscow's global energy exports, the largest in the world. The resulting shortages and rising prices of heating fuel are forcing millions in the West to endure a cold winter. But nowhere is the suffering more acute than in the developing world, according to United Nations officials.

“It is not the U.S. who will suffer the most from the high energy prices,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), a key U.N. observer organization and a leading authority on global energy issues.3

Hardest hit, he said, are the oil-importing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America because of the high prices caused by the war and the strengthening U.S. dollar. These nations must now shell out more of their own currencies to pay for the oil on the international commodities market, which only accepts hard currencies issued by a nation that is seen as politically and economically stable. Unlike Europe, where governments are spending billions of euros to provide citizens and businesses with energy subsidies to ease their financial strain and avoid social unrest, most developing countries pass on their high energy importation costs to their citizens, who earn far less income than Westerners.4

According to a recent global survey by Kiplinger, a personal finance news publication, the cost of a gallon of gas is $5.09 in India, $6.16 in Jordan and $6.45 in Malawi. By contrast, Americans pay, on average, $3.90 per gallon and see average annual salaries of about $50,000 to $55,000, compared with $4,000 or less in the three developing countries.5

University students demonstrate against recent gasoline price hikes in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, in September 2022. The war in Ukraine and other factors have led to rising worldwide energy costs, which disproportionately affect the Global South. (AFP/Getty Images/Chaideer Mahyuddin)

Reports from across the Global South tell of families who can no longer afford to fill their car's gas tank or pay their electricity bills. Meanwhile, businesses are forced to find other power sources to survive.

For instance, in a beauty salon in Nigeria, stylists used their cellphone flashlight apps to illuminate their workspaces, rather than pay the high fuel prices for the shop's gasoline-powered generator. In Manila, Dione Dayola, the driver of a minibus, said spiraling fuel costs since the Ukraine war began had reduced his daily earnings from $15 to $4. “How do you expect to live on that?” asked Dayola, a father of two.6

In his introduction to the IEA's latest annual world energy forecast, Birol said some 70 million people in low-income countries — whose homes only recently became connected to their national electricity grids — would likely be disconnected because they no longer can afford to pay the high electricity costs. The agency added that 100 million people in developing countries no longer would be able to afford to buy clean cooking gas, forcing many to cook with firewood, potentially accelerating deforestation.7

“That is a global tragedy,” said Birol, adding: “It is not only an energy crisis with which we are dealing: many countries also face a food security crisis and increasingly visible impacts of climate change.”8

Marcello Estevão, the World Bank's director for macroeconomics, trade and investment, expressed concern that the high energy prices may be the final straw that will drive many developing nations — already burdened with growing inflation, rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar — to default on tens of billions of dollars of outstanding loans to wealthy countries, development banks and private creditors. He noted that a wave of defaults would make borrowing money for these nations even harder, inflicting greater economic pain on their citizens and likely stoking more protests.9

On the eve of the war in Ukraine, “close to 60 percent of the poorest countries were already in debt distress or at high risk of it,” Estevão said. “In such conditions, history shows, one more surprise is all it takes to touch off a crisis.”10

In response, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres castigated oil and gas companies for the tens of billions of dollars in profits they have earned from high energy prices. He urged governments to tax these profits and use the funds to support vulnerable populations around the world. He also said the dangers of climate change require all countries to limit their use of fossil fuels and, together with private sectors and development banks, accelerate their transitions to green energy.11

According to data from the U.N. Sustainable Development Group, the organization has distributed $225.8 million so far in seed money to 61 low-income nations to help them develop affordable, clean energy.12

“Multilateral development banks need to take more risks,” Guterres said.13

— Jonathan Broder

[1] Efrem Gebreab et al., “Fuel protests gripping more than 90 countries,” BBC, Oct. 17, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-63185186.

[2] Emily Schmall, “Sri Lanka Economy Has ‘Hit Rock Bottom,’ Putting Pressure on President,” The New York Times, April 27, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/world/asia/sri-lanka-economic-crisis.html; “Sri Lanka plans to pay off Iran oil debt with tea,” BBC, Dec. 22, 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59753873.

[3] Lee Ying Shan, “IEA says developing nations are the No. 1 casualty of the energy crisis,” CNBC, Oct. 25, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/iea-developing-nations-the-number-one-casualty-of-the-energy-crisis.html.

[4] Ibid.; Kate Abnett, “European governments spend half a trillion euros on energy crisis — report,” Reuters, Sept. 21, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/european-governments-spend-half-trillion-euros-energy-crisis-report-2022-09-21/.

[5] David Muhlbaum, “Gas Prices Around the World,” Kiplinger, Nov. 28, 2022, https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/shopping/cars/604410/gas-prices-around-the-world.

[6] Patricia Cohen, “Skyrocketing Global Fuel Prices Threaten Livelihoods and Social Stability,” The New York Times, July 2, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/02/business/economy/gas-prices-global.html.

[7] “World Energy Outlook 2022,” International Energy Agency, October 2022, https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099-5530-48f2-a7c1-11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf.

[8] Ibid.

[9] Marcello Estevão, “Are we ready for the coming spate of debt crises?” World Bank Blogs, March 28, 2022, https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/are-we-ready-coming-spate-debt-crises.

[10] Ibid.

[11] “UN chief urges support for world's most vulnerable as energy prices skyrocket: Remarks,” U.N. Sustainable Development Group, Aug. 3, 2022, https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/un-chief-urges-support-worlds-most-vulnerable-energy-prices-skyrocket-remarks.

[12] “Global Overview,” UNSDG Data Portal, U.N. Sustainable Development Group, 2022, https://uninfo.org/.

[13] “UN chief urges support,” op. cit.

Bibliography

Books

Epstein, Alex, Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas — Not Less, Portfolio, Penguin Books, 2022. An energy expert argues that the benefits of fossil fuels will continue to far outweigh their side effects, including climate impacts, for generations to come.

Jahren, Hope, The Story of More: How We Got to Climate Change and Where to Go from Here, Vintage Press, 2020. An award-winning paleobiology professor at the University of Oslo, Norway, explains climate change as the inevitable result of overconsumption on a planet where resources are finite.

Short, Philip, Putin, Henry Holt and Co., 2022. A comprehensive biography of Russia's autocratic president by a former Moscow correspondent for the BBC.

Yergin, Daniel, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations, Penguin Press, 2020. A leading energy analyst reviews geopolitical developments through the lens of energy, national rivalries, changing technologies and climate change.

Articles

“How the West's price cap on Russian oil could roil energy markets,” The Economist, Nov. 30, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3ds74css. The British newsweekly questions whether the $60 price cap that the G-7 and the European Union (EU) imposed on Russian oil sales outside Europe will work, given Russia's refusal to sell oil to any country that abides by the price cap.

Chestney, Nina, “Analysis: Exposed Europe steps up energy defences after Nord Stream ‘sabotage,’” Reuters, Sept. 30, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5bx27ead. A journalist reviews the various security measures European governments are taking to protect their power grids, pipelines and other energy infrastructure following the explosion that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 undersea pipelines.

Denning, Liam, “The Global Energy Order Is Unravelling Fast: Welcome to World War E,” Bloomberg Opinion, Oct. 14, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bdh74n3u. A columnist explains how the energy sanctions resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine reflect the unraveling of the established global energy order that has dominated markets since the 1970s.

Gross, Samantha, and David Dollar, “Podcast: Oil, gas Russia, OPEC — What's happening in world energy markets?” Brookings Institution, Oct. 31, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/385d5jm2. Two energy analysts provide a detailed explanation of the tectonic changes that world energy markets are going through as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that have ensued.

Meredith, Sam, “Russia has cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely. Here's what you need to know,” CNBC, Sept. 6, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2n6mhh57. A London-based energy and climate journalist says the gas supply cutoff reflects the Kremlin's weaponization of energy to force Europe to lift its Ukraine-related sanctions on Moscow — or face a cold, dark winter.

Mills, Robin, “OPEC+ to Cut Production, but Should Heed Energy Market Shifts,” The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Oct. 17, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2u7up2w7. An energy analyst argues that to minimize Western criticism, OPEC should cast its controversial cut to oil production quotas as a move to assist members in energy transition and economic diversification.

Sanger, David E., and Ben Hubbard, “OPEC Move Shows Limits of Biden's Fist-Bump Diplomacy With the Saudis,” The New York Times, Oct. 5, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yc783y3a. An explainer on how the decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas despite U.S. opposition underscores what some see as deep animosity between President Biden and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud.

Reports

“EU sanctions against Russia explained,” Council of the European Union, Dec. 16, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/mr3c6bjb. A detailed explanation of all the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

“World Energy Outlook 2022,” International Energy Agency, November 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3555m2hx. The United Nations agency's annual report provides in-depth analysis and insights on the global implications of the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Dourian, Kate , “Gulf Countries on the Front Line of Energy Security,” The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Oct. 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/y973d4rr. A veteran Middle East energy reporter analyzes the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production quotas by 2 million barrels, concluding that market volatility in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine justified the effort to stabilize oil prices.

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The Next Step

Costs

“Cost of living: Northern Ireland's £600 energy payment roll-out begins,” BBC, Jan. 2, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/y88xz772. Households in Northern Ireland will receive a £600 government energy payment to help defray the high cost of energy.

Cooper, Charlie, and Victor Jack, “Europe's energy prices slump. Just not on your bill,” Politico, Jan. 3, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/yckfuc9w. Despite a decrease in natural gas wholesale prices at the moment due to mild temperatures and demand cuts, European consumers will not immediately see their bills fall, as energy firms typically buy gas well in advance.

Penn, Ivan, “Why Are Energy Prices So High? Some Experts Blame Deregulation,” The New York Times, Jan. 4, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/54tr7hhn. States that have deregulated their electricity markets are more likely to have higher costs compared to those with regulated markets.

Markets

“EU Works On Overhaul Of Power Market To Lower Energy Bills,” Yahoo, Jan. 3, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/4seytrbj. European Union officials plan to reform the bloc's energy market to help ease the expensive cost of fossil fuels.

“How the West's price cap on Russian oil could roil energy markets,” The Economist, Nov. 30, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/muff9sey. The United States and its allies have used a variety of tools to try to simultaneously keep Russian oil off world markets while keeping prices contained.

Somasekhar, Arathy, “Oil dives 4%, trade choppy on worries about China, global economy,” Reuters, Jan. 4, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/ynfpsujz. Global crude oil prices recently dropped, largely due to increased Chinese export quotas for refined oil, a slowdown in major economies and the growing strength of the U.S. dollar.

OPEC

“How The OPEC Meeting On Production Influences Oil And Gas Stocks,” Forbes, Oct. 16, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/zfkmt5s6. The oil cartel controls 40 percent of global production and 60 percent of all oil traded on world markets, giving it great influence over both prices and stock values of the commodity.

Hay, George, “UAE will look to a world beyond OPEC,” Reuters, Dec. 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2bdaxhrz. Due to growing new interests, including the desire to pump more oil, the United Arab Emirates plans to distance itself from OPEC.

Philipson, Tomas J., “Biden Turns the U.S. Into a Shadow Member of OPEC,” The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 13, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/42pzp4cp. A U.S. economist argues that while President Biden has publicly criticized OPEC, his administration has allowed the cartel to achieve record profits by constraining U.S. oil supply.

Ukraine

“New types of energy generation will appear in Ukraine this year,” The Odessa Journal, Jan. 4, 2023, https://tinyurl.com/msup6rjt. Ukraine plans to develop new kinds of modular, mobile power generation facilities.

Lister, Tim, Olga Voitovych and Victoria Butenko, “Ukraine keeps patching up its power grid. But Russia's barrage could force more Ukrainians to flee as winter bites,” CNN, Dec. 10, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/48av3mux. As Russia increases its missile attacks on Ukraine's grid, Ukraine works to restore power and secure supplies while winter brings freezing temperatures.

Sytas, Andrius, and Marek Strzelecki, “Eastern Europe holds the key to keeping Ukraine's power on,” Reuters, Dec. 21, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/4vww5dz5. Eastern Europe maintains power grids compatible with Ukraine, which could be used to supply equipment needed to provide the nation with heat and light during the winter.

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Contacts

American Enterprise Institute
1789 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-862-5800
aei.org
Conservative think tank with expertise on Russian foreign policy and defense issues; publishes policy papers and hosts in-person and online conferences.

American Petroleum Institute
200 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Suite 1100, Washington, DC 20001
202-682-8000
api.org
The largest U.S. trade association for the nation's oil and natural gas industry.

Atlantic Council
1030 15th St., N.W., 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005
202-778-4952
atlanticcouncil.org
Independent think tank with several European- and Russian-related programs; produces policy studies and hosts symposia and conferences.

The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-797-6000
brookings.edu
Nonpartisan think tank that conducts in-depth research on energy, climate and foreign policy issues; produces books, analytical papers and online conferences.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-483-7600
carnegieendowment.org
Nonpartisan think tank offering analysis and symposia focusing on international political, economic and strategic developments, including those involving energy and climate.

Center for European Policy Analysis
1275 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004
202-551-9200
cepa.org
A nonpartisan research institution focused on transatlantic issues, including governance, defense and energy; advises businesses on European strategic landscape.

Center on Global Energy Policy
1255 Amsterdam Ave., First Floor, New York, NY 10027
212-853-2475
energypolicy.columbia.edu
Research center at Columbia University that produces reports, articles and commentary on energy and climate issues; provides experts for media commentary.

Center for Strategic and International Studies
1616 Rhode Island Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-887-0200
csis.org
Centrist think tank with a comprehensive international security program that generates Ukrainian- and Russian-related policy papers, country studies and holds conferences.

European Council on Foreign Relations
120 New Cavendish St., London W1W 6XX
+44 (0) 20 7227 6860
ecfr.eu
International think tank that conducts independent research on European foreign policy, energy and security issues.

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Footnotes

[1] Liam Denning, “The Global Energy Order Is Unravelling Fast: Welcome to World War E,” Bloomberg Opinion, Oct. 14, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-14/the-global-energy-order-is-unravelling-fast-welcome-to-world-war-e-l98fblxh?sref=TssnZ5qa.

[2] Ivan Nechepurenko and Marc Santora, “Lavrov defends strikes on civilian infrastructure as six million people in Ukraine remain without power,” The New York Times, Dec. 1, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/01/world/russia-ukraine-war-news?action=click&module=10us-russia-briefing&variant=1_signup&state=default&pgtype=Article&region=body&context=storyline_push_signup&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare#lavrov-ukraine-energy-strikes.

[3] Emma Charlton, “Russian energy imports to Europe are falling — here's what that means for the energy transition,” World Economic Forum, Dec. 13, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/12/europe-russia-energy-imports/.

[4] Sam Meredith, “Russia has cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely. Here's what you need to know,” CNBC, Sept. 6, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/energy-crisis-why-has-russia-cut-off-gas-supplies-to-europe.html; Christopher Jungstedt, “Explosive Residue Confirms Nord Stream Sabotage in Swedish Probe,” Bloomberg, Nov. 18, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/nord-stream-explosions-were-caused-by-sabotage-sweden-concludes?sref=TssnZ5qa.

[5] “Full Transcript of Zelensky's Speech Before Congress,” The New York Times, Dec. 21, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/us/politics/zelensky-speech-transcript.html.

[6] Akayla Gardner, “Biden Signs $1.7 Trillion Funding Bill That Includes Ukraine Aid,” Bloomberg, Dec. 29, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-29/biden-signs-1-7-trillion-funding-bill-that-includes-ukraine-aid?sref=TssnZ5qa.

[7] Ibid.

[8] “World Energy Outlook 2022 shows the global energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure future,” International Energy Agency, Oct. 27, 2022, https://www.iea.org/news/world-energy-outlook-2022-shows-the-global-energy-crisis-can-be-a-historic-turning-point-towards-a-cleaner-and-more-secure-future.

[9] David E. Sanger and Ben Hubbard, “OPEC Move Shows the Limits of Biden's Fist-Bump Diplomacy With the Saudis,” The New York Times, Oct. 5, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/opec-biden-saudi-arabia.html; “From where do we import energy?” Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html.

[10] “EU sanctions against Russia explained,” Council of the European Union, Jan. 5, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/; Jan Strupczewski, “G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in, Russia will only sell at market price,” Reuters, Dec. 5, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-price-cap-russian-oil-kicks-russia-will-only-sell-market-price-2022-12-05/.

[11] Samantha Gross and David Dollar, “Oil, gas, Russia, OPEC — What's happening in world energy markets?” Brookings Institution, podcast, Oct. 31, 2022, https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/oil-gas-russia-opec-whats-happening-in-world-energy-markets/.

[12] Matt Stevens, Ivan Nechepurenko and Matthew Mpoke Bigg, “Moscow Insists It Will Not Comply With Oil Price Cap,” The New York Times, Dec. 6, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/04/world/russia-ukraine-war-news; Alexander Marrow and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Putin bans Russian oil exports to countries that implement price cap,” Reuters, Dec. 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-bans-russian-oil-exports-countries-that-imposed-price-cap-decree-2022-12-27/.

[13] “How the West's price cap on Russian oil could roil energy markets,” The Economist, Nov. 30, 2022, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/11/30/how-the-wests-price-cap-on-russian-oil-could-roil-energy-markets.

[14] Derek Brower and David Sheppard, “The week that could unravel the global oil market,” Financial Times, Nov. 28, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/3c15dd27-9b7a-4905-aaa6-f6009b1aec50.

[15] Anna Ringstrom and Terje Solsvik, “Nord Stream leaks confirmed as sabotage, Sweden says,” Reuters, Nov. 18, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/traces-explosives-found-nord-stream-pipelines-sweden-says-2022-11-18/.

[16] Shane Harris et al., “No conclusive evidence Russia is behind Nord Stream attack,” The Washington Post, Dec. 21, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/.

[17] Nina Chestney, “Analysis: Exposed Europe steps up energy defences after Nord Stream ‘sabotage,’” Reuters, Sept. 30, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exposed-europe-steps-up-energy-defences-after-nord-stream-sabotage-2022-09-30/.

[18] “Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract,” MarketWatch, accessed Dec. 15, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/brn00?countrycode=uk.

[19] “World Energy Outlook 2022,” op. cit.

[20] Oliver Gliech, “Petroleum,” International Encyclopedia of the First World War, Jan. 7, 2015, https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/petroleum.

[21] James A. Paul, “Great Power Conflict over Iraqi Oil: The World War I Era,” Global Policy Forum, October 2002, https://archive.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/185-general/40479-great-power-conflict-over-iraqi-oil-the-world-war-i-era.html; Gliech, op. cit.

[22] Daniel Yergin, “Blood and Oil: Why Japan Attacked Pearl,” The Washington Post, Dec. 1, 1991, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1991/12/01/blood-and-oil-why-japan-attacked-pearl/1238a2e3-6055-4d73-817d-baf67d3a9db8/; “Britain Fights for Oil Nationalism,” The New York Times, 2000, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/041600iran-cia-chapter1.html.

[23] Fid Backhouse et al., “1953 coup in Iran,” Encyclopedia Britannic, May 10, 2022, https://www.britannica.com/event/1953-coup-in-Iran; Michael Corbett, “Oil Shock of 1973-74,” Federal Reserve History, Nov. 22, 2013, https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74; “Jimmy Carter shuts down oil imports from Iran,” History.com, Nov. 15, 2021, https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/carter-shuts-down-oil-imports-from-iran; and “Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977-1980, Vol. XVIII, Middle East Region; Arabian Peninsula,” Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v18/d45.

[24] “Iran-Iraq War,” Encyclopedia Britannica, Nov. 29, 2022, https://www.britannica.com/event/Iran-Iraq-War.

[25] “Persian Gulf War,” Encyclopedia Britannica, Jan. 5, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/event/Persian-Gulf-War.

[26] “OPEC, oil nations agree to an unprecedented production cut,” The Associated Press, Politico, April 12, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/12/opec-oil-nations-10-million-barrel-cut-182372.

[27] Gross and Dollar podcast, op. cit.

[28] Rona Rita David, “EU Embargo on Russian Oil, Implications and Consequences,” Energy Industry Review, Dec. 8, 2022, https://energyindustryreview.com/oil-gas/eu-embargo-on-russian-oil-implications-and-consequences/; Strupczewski, op. cit.

[29] Grant Smith, “Oil Prices May Rally Next Year as Russian Exports Sink, IEA Says,” Bloomberg, Dec. 14, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/crude-prices-may-rally-next-year-as-russian-oil-exports-sink-iea-says?sref=TssnZ5qa.

[30] “Russia's Initial Response to Oil-Price Cap Holds Back From Retaliation,” Bloomberg, Dec. 14, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/russia-s-initial-response-to-crude-oil-price-cap-holds-back-from-retaliation.

[31] Kate Dourian, “Gulf Countries on the Front Line of Energy Security,” The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Oct. 19, 2022, https://agsiw.org/gulf-countries-on-the-front-line-of-energy-security/.

[32] “Brent crude oil continuous contract,” op. cit.

[33] “A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russia's Natural Gas,” International Energy Agency, March 3, 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas.

[34] “Selected natural gas liquefaction plants in Russia as of November 2022, by annual capacity and status,” Statista, November 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1262329/lng-liquefaction-capacity-by-plant-russia/.

[35] Eugene Rumer, “Putin's Long War,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dec. 9, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/09/putin-s-long-war-pub-88602.

[36] “World Energy Outlook 2022,” op. cit.; Bella Isaacs-Thomas, “What the Inflation Reduction Act does for green energy,” PBS Newshour, Aug. 17, 2022, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/what-the-inflation-reduction-act-does-for-green-energy.

[37] Ibid.

[38] Javier Blas, “Peak Oil Demand Is Nowhere in Sight,” Bloomberg Opinion, Dec. 14, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-14/peak-oil-demand-is-nowhere-in-sight.

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About the Author

Jonathan Broder is a Washington-based reporter and editor. He was a senior writer for Newsweek, a senior editor at Congressional Quarterly and served as a foreign correspondent in the Middle East, South Asia and the Far East for the Chicago Tribune. Broder's writing also has appeared in The New York Times Magazine, The Washington Post, Smithsonian and the World Policy Journal, among other publications. His most recent report for CQ Researcher was on the war in Ukraine.

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