The GOP's Future

Introduction

Supporters of Donald Trump gather at Trump Tower in New York City on March 5 in a show of loyalty to the former president. Many Republicans see Trump as the future of the Republican Party, but others worry that he cannot win a general election. (Getty Images/Anadolu Agency/Tayfun Coskun)

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Overview

Sen. Pat Toomey's vote to convict President Donald Trump in the February impeachment trial ignited strong condemnations from his fellow Pennsylvania Republicans. Several county parties censured him for what they called his betrayal of the former president.

“We did not send him there to vote his conscience,” said Dave Ball, who chairs the Washington County GOP in western Pennsylvania. “We did not send him there to do the right thing…. We sent him there to represent us, and we feel very strongly that he did not represent us” — even though Toomey supported Trump's position in 85 percent of his Senate votes.1

The other Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in the House, to convict him in the Senate or to reject Trump's quest to reverse his loss in the election have received similar treatment.

In an effort to discredit the former president in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riot, the Lincoln Project reproduced a Donald Trump tweet from November denying he had lost the election. His false claims of election fraud have divided the Republican Party. (Screenshot)

Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska was rebuked by his state's Republican Party for voting to convict, prompting Sasse to reply that it was party leaders who were out of step with the public: “Most Nebraskans don't think politics should be about the weird worship of one dude.”2

Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois was condemned by members of his own family after voting to impeach. Eleven relatives accused him of joining “the devil's army” and lamented “what a disappointment you are to us and to God!”3

These conflicts signal the split in Republican ranks over the party's future and whether it should follow Trump's lead with his America First themes, or move on to new leaders who are loyal to traditional Republican values. The dilemma facing the party, political analysts say, is that Trump retains an iron grip on his base: Repudiate him, and the party risks losing the support of this base. But embrace Trump, and the party risks alienating the broader electorate that rejects Trump's policies and bombastic style.

With Trump maintaining a hold over the GOP, “this is the state of the Republican Party: fractured, out of power and bitterly fighting over core tenets of democracy,” wrote McKay Coppins, author of a book on the party's future. “[And] the future of the party he's leaving behind is less certain than ever.”4

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky illustrates the dilemma facing Republican leaders, according to analysts. He is trying to distance GOP senators from Trump's unpopularity with the public while not alienating the former president and his supporters. McConnell voted to acquit Trump in the impeachment trial, but condemned him in a floor speech, saying the president incited the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

Ignoring McConnell's vote against conviction, an angry Trump responded by calling the senator “a dour, sullen and unsmiling political hack” and “a stone-cold loser,” demonstrating the Sisyphean task McConnell set for himself. Trump also announced he would back intraparty challengers to Republican incumbents who did not support him in a way that he found adequate.5

Polls show the degree to which Trump remains highly popular with the GOP grassroots. An April survey by YouGov and The Economist, for example, found that Trump has an 82 percent favorability rating among self-identified Republicans; among all U.S. adults, it is 40 percent.6

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“Right now, he is the Republican Party,” Republican pollster John McLaughlin said. “He's literally the most popular figure we have ever had in the conservative movement.”7

Most Republicans accept Trump's false contention that he won the presidential election and Democrat Joe Biden was declared the victor and inaugurated only because of widespread fraud — an argument that the courts and election officials have rejected. A majority of GOP House members sided with Trump and voted in January to block certification of the election results in some states.8

State and local party organizations attacked officeholders such as Toomey because the party leaders are “responding to the activist base and Republican primary voters,” says John Pitney Jr., a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in California, who previously worked for the Republican National Committee and other GOP groups.

Political historian Matthew Dallek of George Washington University in Washington, D.C., describes Trump's core supporters as people “who believe that the system has screwed them.” They are mostly white, live outside urban areas and do not have a college degree, Dallek says.

Gary Abernathy, a conservative columnist for The Washington Post who has been a Republican officeholder in Ohio, says these supporters “felt Trump was someone who for the first time went to war for them.”

Support for Trump stems from “the growing, globalization-driven divide between prosperous, highly educated metropolitan areas and the left-behind rural areas and post-industrial towns,” said Geoffrey Kabaservice, who used to work for the Republican Main Street Partnership and is director of political studies at the Niskanen Center, a Washington think tank. The counties that Biden carried produced 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2018, for example. In California, Trump counties produced just 5 percent of the state's GDP.9

Trump's Republican critics, such as the Lincoln Project, a group founded by disgruntled Republicans to oppose the president, say his personal popularity within the GOP has come at a steep price, both politically and ideologically. Trump's overall approval rating never topped 50 percent during his four years in the White House.10 Because the former president appeals primarily to older, white, male Americans, these critics and some scholars argue that party membership and support will decline as the country becomes more ethnically and racially diverse.

“The party needs to recruit more minorities, women and the young,” says Joseph DiSarro, a political science professor at Washington & Jefferson College and a member of the Pennsylvania Republican State Committee.

Biden won 57 percent of women's votes last year, according to surveys of voters leaving polling places or early voting sites, along with substantial majorities of people of color, whose share of the electorate is steadily increasing. White voters are projected to constitute less than half the electorate by 2045.11

In Georgia, where Democrats narrowly won the presidential electors and both U.S. Senate seats in the last election, white suburban women have been switching to the Democratic column while more young people and people of color are moving into the growing state.12

But Democrats are not without challenges, DiSarro notes. Blue collar workers, once a mainstay of Democratic support, have defected, he says. And Biden drew a smaller percentage of Latino and Black support than Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016, although he more than made up the difference among white voters. Some analysts said that some minority voters reacted negatively to Democrats' liberal positions on social issues.13

Sarah Chamberlain, president and chief executive officer of the Republican Main Street Partnership, an association of center-right Republicans who focus on issues and governing, says Republicans can win minority and youth votes “if we start addressing the issues they care about.”

Republicans are also warring over whether the party should return to its traditional values — free trade, small government, lower federal deficits and an internationalist foreign policy — or continue Trump's anti-free trade, anti-immigration, America First policies.

In a new memoir, former House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, wrote that today's Republican Party would be unrecognizable to conservatives from earlier eras. Citing the influence of Trump, conservative media and radical anti-establishment reformers, Boehner said “I don't even think I could get elected in today's Republican Party anyway. I don't think Ronald Reagan could either.”14

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who is a Trump critic, said, “We need to be focused on the future…. And for us as a party going forward, we have to embrace the Constitution and we also have to put forward positive solutions.”15

The conflicts between ardent Trump supporters and more-traditional Republicans will play out in the 2022 congressional GOP primaries and already are erupting within the House and Senate.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy fended off efforts by some GOP representatives to remove Cheney from the No. 3 House Republican leadership position after she voted to impeach Trump. He also persuaded his caucus not to punish newly elected Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia for comments that many of her colleagues found offensive — including supporting the QAnon conspiracy theory, which accuses leading Democrats of being Satan-worshipping pedophiles.

According to Cheney, Trump “does not have a role as a leader of our party going forward.” But in Greene's view, “The party is his. It doesn't belong to anyone else.”16

All Republicans must stick together to have a chance at retaking control of Congress in two years and of the White House in 2024, McCarthy argued. Greene still lost her committee assignments in action by the House's Democratic majority and 11 Republicans.17

Since the attack on the Capitol, tens of thousands of Republicans have changed their voter registration status to Democrat or independent, and a Gallup Poll found that Democrats hold a 7-point lead over the Republicans in party identity.18

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Thanks to smaller states' disproportionate representation in the Senate and Republicans' advantage in redrawing congressional districts to their liking, known as gerrymandering, GOP representation in Congress is higher than the proportion of votes cast for Republicans overall. The Electoral College's tilt toward small states enhances the prospects of GOP presidential candidates. Republican nominees won the popular vote in just one of the last eight presidential elections, yet captured the White House through the Electoral College three times. And Republicans in several states are passing laws that critics say are aimed at making it harder for Democrats' traditional supporters to vote.

As Republicans grapple with the best way to move forward, these are some of the questions they are debating:

Will Donald Trump maintain his leadership of the Republican Party?

Republican activists and independent analysts agree that former President Trump exerts a powerful hold on his party. But many Republicans worry that this could become a fatal stranglehold over the long term, even though they need Trump's support to turn out his devoted voters for other candidates.

In polling this year, three-fourths of Republicans said they want Trump to play a prominent role in the party going forward, and nearly half want him to remain the party's head. Trump himself said in late April that he will likely decide after the 2022 midterms whether to seek another term.19

Nearly all of those attending February's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) — an annual gathering hosted by the American Conservative Union — approved of his performance in office and said the GOP should stick with his policies. Two-thirds said he should run again, although fewer, 55 percent, said they would vote for him.20 Among Trump supporters, three-quarters would vote for him again.21

Perceptions are different outside the party, however. A February Quinnipiac poll found just one-third of all U.S. adults want Trump to play a major role in the GOP going forward, for example.22

“Outside the Republican Party, people are going to associate Trump with the Jan. 6 insurrection,” says Claremont McKenna College's Pitney, “and that's a pretty heavy weight. Notwithstanding some marginal gains here and there, Trump's brand is a barrier to gains among Hispanic and Asian voters.”

Inside the GOP, however, Trump is “the most important voice for Republicans,” says Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union.

Columnist Abernathy finds it remarkable how much Trump has changed the party. The GOP previously supported free trade, for instance, and now it is “pretty much isolationist.” Trump also “brought in a whole lot of new people who are blue collar workers,” he says, and “remade the Republican Party as more of a populist party.”

Yet Trump's popularity carries costs for the party, and many activists and observers expect his influence to fade over time.

Trump's popularity among his base is preventing Republicans from preparing adequately for the 2024 presidential campaign, because he commands so much attention and is hinting that he might run again, some analysts say.

Former President Trump addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 28 in Orlando, Fla. A straw poll of attendees showed 55 percent said they would vote for him if he ran again in 2024. (Getty Images/Joe Raedle)

“So long as he is around, he has frozen the field” of potential 2024 candidates, says the Niskanen Center's Kabaservice. “Any attempt to distance themselves from Trump, or to assert themselves as candidates, will be seen by the Trumpian masses as disloyalty.”

Normally after a party loses a presidential campaign, “you would see potential presidential candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire” in December, said Alex Conant, a Republican operative who was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's communications director for his 2016 presidential campaign.23

Republican activists also worry that fear of Trump's harsh response to criticism is blocking the tough-minded analysis of the presidential campaign that parties usually conduct after a defeat.

“Despite a historic loss, there has been absolutely no introspection in the party,” said Brendan Buck, a Republican operative who worked for former GOP House Speakers Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Boehner. According to Conant, this is partly because “a lot of our voters don't think we actually lost.”24

Looking toward 2024, “the nomination is Trump's for the taking,” said Marc Thiessen, who was chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush and is now a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank.25

Abernathy, however, says he expects Trump's standing, “even among his base, to diminish slowly but surely — and it will be slowly. I think it will become clear to people that Trump's not going to win a general election again, although he would win a primary.”

Thiessen noted the bare majority of CPAC attendees who said they would vote for him. “That is not a repudiation of the former president,” he added. “It's a grudging recognition by many of his most ardent loyalists that, despite their adoration of him, there might be better candidates to advance his ideas.”26

Abernathy agrees, saying the party should “find new leaders who embrace Trumpism. If you've got someone who can pick up the mantel of Trumpism and not be a constant distraction, you'd be on to something pretty powerful.”

Trump critics question this logic. Political historian Dallek points out that Trump lost the popular vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, becoming president only because the Electoral College tilts toward small, Republican-dominated states. In addition, Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress on his watch.

Financial and legal challenges also diminish Trump's prospects, according to some political analysts. He reportedly will have to repay more than $300 million in personally guaranteed business loans over the next four years. His hotels and resorts have suffered financially because of pandemic-caused travel restrictions and his personal unpopularity.27

Trump is under investigation by at least six law enforcement agencies and faces 29 civil lawsuits against him or his companies, according to a Washington Post count.28

Georgia's secretary of state and the Fulton County district attorney in Atlanta are probing Trump's attempts to reverse the presidential election results in Georgia. Manhattan's district attorney and New York state's attorney general are conducting multiple probes of Trump's tax payments and whether he misled lenders about the value of his properties. The District of Columbia's attorney general is investigating whether Trump misused donations for his 2017 inauguration and whether he violated a law against “inciting or provoking violence” when he spoke on Jan. 6 to the crowd that a short time later invaded the Capitol in a riot in which at least five people died and 140 police officers were injured.

The lawsuits range from relatively routine disputes, such as a complaint about bedbugs at the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, to defamation charges from two women whom Trump criticized after they accused him of sexual assaults. He also is fending off neighbors who contend that he cannot legally live full time in his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach.29

Are businesses deserting the Republican Party?

Yale University management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld routinely hosts discussions among Fortune 500 CEOs, but what he heard 40 executives say on a Zoom call on Jan. 13 was “stunning.”

All said Donald Trump was unfit to be president. All said businesses should stop contributing to the Republican lawmakers who voted to overturn the results of the presidential election. Ninety-six percent said Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

Three months later, about 90 executives were Zooming again, this time to talk about their opposition to voting restrictions adopted by the Republican-dominated Legislature in Georgia and introduced by GOP lawmakers in states around the country. Responses discussed during that April 10 call ranged from denying campaign contributions to the legislation's supporters to delaying investments in states where restrictive measures become law.30

No action came out of that call immediately. But individual companies — including telecom giant AT&T, hotel operator Marriott and mega-retailer Walmart — already had announced cutbacks in political contributions to members of Congress who voted against certifying Biden's election on Jan. 6 — the same day Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. Others stopped all political giving. Still others — such as grocery retailer Kroger — announced a pause in giving while they reconsidered their political involvement.31

Most of the companies left open the possibility of resuming contributions. But the Charles Schwab brokerage went further by eliminating its political action committee (PAC).32

A participant in a “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6 in Washington was part of a crowd that heard Trump urge his supporters to continue fighting the certification of Democrat Joe Biden's Electoral College victory. (Getty Images/Robert Nickelsberg)

Jamie Dimon, CEO of the financial firm JPMorgan, who announced a six-month pause, said that “no one thought they were giving money to people who supported sedition.” Yet “we had sedition and insurrection in D.C.” on Jan. 6, he said.

Republican reaction was swift. Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Texas, who voted against certifying Biden's election, accused the companies of “bowing down to the left-wing mob.” Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who supports new voting restrictions in his state, said, “Texans are fed up with corporations that don't share our values trying to dictate public policy.”33

Senate Republican Leader McConnell told companies on April 5 to “stay out of politics,” warning that “corporations will invite serious consequences if they become a vehicle for far-left mobs to hijack our country from outside the constitutional order” — comments he began walking back the next day.34

Scott Reed, a GOP strategist and former U.S. Chamber of Commerce adviser, said the companies “are making short-term, rash decisions” and “are going to regret it. Shutting down your PAC while this new regime takes place in Washington that's focused on re-regulating industries is a big mistake.”35

First-quarter congressional campaign finance reports reveal that corporations did cut back their contributions compared with two years ago, especially to Republicans who voted to overturn the election. Those Republicans lost 80 percent of their business support while other members lost 35 percent. But so much money is flowing into congressional campaign coffers that it may not matter.36

In recent years, about 8 percent of House members' contributions and 3 percent of senators' came from business political action committees.37 That percentage probably would have declined in the first three months of this year even if business contributions stayed stable, because donations from other sources have grown so much.

But a New York Times analysis of campaign data found that Republican lawmakers capitalized on the “Stop the Steal” campaign and the Jan. 6 riot to raise money from an angry GOP base. Two highly vocal Trump defenders, Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas, each received more than $3 million in campaign donations in the three months following Jan. 6.38

Cruz's haul was about three times what he raised in the first quarter of 2017. Two-thirds of the money came in small donations from individuals.39

House Republican Leader McCarthy, who voted against certification, said his Take Back the House 2022 committee raised $21.6 million to support GOP House candidates, about $5 million more than it raised in the first quarter of 2020, a congressional election year. This year's receipts included $771,900 in large contributions from 11 individuals, and nothing from business PACs.40

Republican representatives who voted to impeach Trump also raised substantial amounts. Rep. Cheney raised about $1.5 million, much more than she received in previous first quarters. Most of her contributions came from wealthy individuals and corporate PACs, with just about 11 percent in donations of $200 or less.41

“It's obvious that there's a strong market for Trumpism in the Republican base,” former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida said of the fundraising successes on both sides of the Trump chasm. “There is also a strong market for truth-telling and supporting the Constitution.”42

Many corporate executives had a rocky relationship with Trump throughout his presidency, Sonnenfeld says.

They were happy with a 2018 Republican-crafted income tax law that cut the top individual rate to 37 percent from 39.6 percent and the corporate rate to 21 percent from 35 percent, he says. But they did not like the trade conflicts Trump initiated and the increased budget deficits. Some companies clashed with Trump over gun control, climate change and immigration.

Sonnenfeld foresees a long-term change in corporations' approach to politics, but adds that “if the Democrats go off the edge on the other side,” things could change.

Claremont McKenna College's Pitney says corporations will likely hedge their bets: “A lot of it is going to be the finger in the wind. If they think Republicans are likely to do well, we'll see more access money flowing to the Republicans.”

Will the Republican Party split in two?

About 120 anti-Trump Republicans gathered by Zoom in early February to discuss forming a new center-right political party. Participants included former elected officeholders and officials from the Trump, Reagan and two Bush administrations.43

At the same time, Trump supporters gathered in several states to form new parties with names like Patriot and MAGA Patriot. Trump himself considered organizing a new party, according to some reports. A February CBS News poll found that one-third of Republicans would join such a party and 37 percent might join.44

One thing the pro- and anti-Trump groups have in common: Politicians and political analysts say the efforts have little chance to succeed.

While some Republicans fret that their party could split in two, more worry about a fragmentation that leaves the GOP alive but divided and weaker.

Most Republicans on the Zoom call did not favor creating a new party, according to discussion co-host Evan McMullin, a former chief policy director of the House Republican Conference who ran as an anti-Trump independent presidential candidate in 2016.45

The pro-Trump meetings — in Florida, Georgia, Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio and other states — tended to be sparsely attended, and some were led by people who did not know how to put their ideas into practice. In attempting to register their parties with the Federal Election Commission, two organizers accidently created political action committees affiliated with Trump's political organization — which disavowed the groups. Trump himself rejected forming a new party in a speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 28.46

“The structural barriers to establishing a new party are daunting,” Claremont McKenna College's Pitney says.

“Third-party movements have happened,” historian Dallek notes, citing Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive Party in 1912, George Wallace's American Independent Party of 1968, Ross Perot's Reform Party in 1992-96 and the pro-segregation Dixiecrats of 1948. But, he adds, none ultimately succeeded.

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Dallek sees little third-party appeal for anti-Trump Republicans when many Americans view President Biden as a moderate. “Most of the suburban voters had a viable alternative in the Democrat,” Dallek says. “I think it would be more achievable if [the more liberal] Bernie Sanders became the dominant force in the Democratic Party.”

Pitney says the threat to the GOP “is not splitting but leakage. Some people will remain in the party and grumble, and some will drop out.”

The registration changes since the attack on the Capitol are evidence of that leakage, he says. At the beginning of an odd-numbered year, “taking the trouble to change your registration is a symbol of considerable dissatisfaction.”

Schlapp of the American Conservative Union, however, says the re-registration trend has likely reversed since the “really dark day” of the Jan. 6 riot caused a significant drop in Trump's poll numbers.

The Niskanen Center's Kabaservice sees a three-way division within the party: the “Never Trumpers,” the “MAGA faithful” and those who “put up with the costs of Trumpism to get what they see as the benefits,” such as conservative public-policy victories. “This three-way split will run through the Republican Party for the foreseeable future,” he says, but that does not mean that any group will leave the GOP.47

Columnist Abernathy says the anti-Trump faction is too small to pose a significant threat to the party, and Schlapp agrees. “No one who's a Never Trumper will play a prominent role in national [Republican] politics,” Schlapp says, because “the overwhelming majority of Republicans approve of Trump and his policies” — although he acknowledges that some elected officials in swing districts benefit from distancing themselves from Trump.

GOP communications consultant Liz Mair said Trump's Republican critics face a dilemma.

“Many of us — who would otherwise consider ourselves Republicans — increasingly feel that either Mr. Trump goes, or we go,” she said. “Many former Republicans who deeply dislike Mr. Trump have already done so.” But she added, “If you leave, the people you abhor stay and get to run the whole show. If you stay, you can at least ask questions, offer criticisms, block some objectionable actions and fly the flag for people like you.”48

Despite declaring loyalty to the GOP, Trump is sowing division within the party. He denounces Republicans who opposed some of his actions and told his supporters not to contribute to the party's fundraising organizations, for example.

The criticisms have taken a toll. McConnell's approval rating among Republicans nationwide dropped 29 percentage points to 41 percent after he declared Trump responsible for the Capitol riot and Trump responded with scathing criticism, according to polling by the Morning Consult data analysis company. Similarly, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the chamber's No. 2 ranking Republican leader, suffered a 16-point drop after he voted to certify Biden's victory, and Trump called for a primary challenge. Thune's approval remained a positive 69 percent, however.49

The outside chance that a large number of suburban Republicans will abandon the GOP, according to Kabaservice, will come true if Trump's “racism, misogyny, cavalier attitude toward the pandemic and general Know-Nothingism have permanently pushed them away from the party.” Then, “future political demographers will consider Biden Republicans as the 2020s equivalent of Reagan Democrats of the 1980s.”50

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Background

Radical Republicans

For nearly three-quarters of a century, the Republican Party was home to African Americans.

The party was founded in 1854 to oppose slavery's expansion in the West. After the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861, party members pressed for abolition as a means of building support for the war. President Abraham Lincoln, a Republican, issued the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863, freeing enslaved people within the rebellious states. When the war ended in 1865, congressional Republicans pushed hard for the 13th Amendment that abolished slavery throughout the nation. So-called Radical Republicans in 1865 launched a 12-year effort known as Reconstruction to reform the South and protect the civil and voting rights of Black Americans.51

These efforts ensured the loyalty of African Americans until 1936, when Democrat Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal persuaded a majority of Black Americans to vote Democratic at the national level. Roosevelt received 71 percent of the Black vote for president in 1936, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.52

Southern segregationists' continued power in the Democratic Party kept most African Americans in the GOP, however, with a majority identifying as Republican through 1944.53

This alignment of Southern whites voting Democratic and African Americans voting Republican broke down further as leading Democrats voiced support for the civil rights movement, which was fighting to integrate public spaces and expand the political rights of African Americans.

John F. Kennedy reached out to civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. during the 1960 presidential campaign, and as president he sent a civil rights bill to Congress in 1963. After Kennedy's assassination in November of that year, President Lyndon Johnson continued to lobby for the measure. It passed in 1964 as the most far-reaching civil rights legislation in U.S. history, outlawing racial discrimination in employment and forbidding segregation in hotels, restaurants and stores. Johnson also waged a self-proclaimed War on Poverty that was popular with Black Americans.54

During the 1964 Democratic National Convention in Atlantic City, N.J., a billboard promoted the presidential campaign of Republican nominee Barry Goldwater, a conservative senator from Arizona. (Someone added a tart rebuttal underneath.) He lost badly but made inroads in the Democratic Solid South. (Getty Images/Bettman)

The shift was accelerated when conservative Barry Goldwater — a Republican senator from Arizona who voted against the civil rights legislation — captured the GOP's 1964 presidential nomination. He promised to scale back the federal government and protect states' rights. Goldwater lost in a landslide to Johnson. But his opposition to civil rights and support for states' rights appealed to many white Southern voters who helped him carry five Southern states that traditionally had voted Democratic as part of the so-called Solid South. When he signed the Civil Rights Act, Johnson famously observed that he had signed away the South for a generation.55

Richard Nixon, who secured the GOP nomination in 1968, built on Goldwater's support in the South by appealing to white voters. That was a tumultuous year in the United States as civil rights and anti-war demonstrations spread and riots erupted nationwide following King's assassination in April. Nixon campaigned on the need to restore “law and order” and sought support from “the great silent majority of my fellow Americans.”

As Nixon prepared for his 1972 re-election bid, individuals funded by his campaign broke into the Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate complex in Washington in an attempt to tap phones. They were caught, and Nixon's involvement in a coverup of the campaign's involvement led to the Watergate scandal.

Nixon resigned the presidency in August 1974 to avoid being impeached by the House, and Democrats romped in that November's midterm elections. Gerald Ford, who succeeded Nixon as president, lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrats gained one seat in the House and one in the Senate, plus an independent senator who caucused with them.

Four years later, however, Republican nominee Ronald Reagan defeated Carter and pulled the GOP to the right. Republicans also reduced the Democratic majority in the House and captured the Senate for the first time since Republican Dwight Eisenhower's landslide presidential win in 1952.

Reagan, a former actor and two-term California governor, ran as a conservative, emphasizing lowering taxes, shrinking the federal government, strengthening national defense and promoting “traditional family values.” He also supported allowing prayer in public schools and opposed the Equal Rights Amendment to guarantee women's legal equality and other liberal causes. Reagan benefited from the growth of conservative Christian political activism, which was motivated, among other issues, by opposition to Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court ruling that said the Constitution protected a right to abortion. He increased Republican support among white blue-collar voters who had once been Democratic supporters but now became known as Reagan Democrats.56

Worsening Partisanship

Despite the Republican successes of the 1980s — the economy rebounded after the deep 1981-82 recession, the Cold War ended and U.S. military power reached new heights — President George H.W. Bush, who succeeded Reagan in 1989, was unable to win a second term in 1992.

The Democrat who beat Bush, Bill Clinton, experienced setbacks in his early years as president. His attempt at comprehensive health care reform failed, and Rep. Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., led a fierce Republican attack against Clinton and congressional Democrats in the 1994 campaign.

The result: Republicans captured the House in 1994 for the first time since 1952 and retook the Senate, which they had lost in 1986. Many political analysts and politicians say the Gingrich era greatly worsened partisanship and made compromise in Congress even harder to achieve. The political climate further deteriorated in 1998, when the Republican-controlled House impeached Clinton on charges he lied under oath and obstructed justice in a sex scandal involving 21-year-old White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Backers of Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, rally in Austin, Texas, in November 2000 as the nation awaited a recount to determine who won the presidential election. A Supreme Court decision awarding the election to Bush embittered Democrats and helped intensify partisanship. (AFP/Getty Images/Mike Nelson)

In his new memoir, former Rep. Boehner called the impeachment politically motivated: The second-ranking House Republican, Majority Leader Tom DeLay, “believed that impeaching Clinton would win us all these House seats, would be a big win politically, and he convinced enough of the membership and the GOP base that this was true.”57 (The Republicans instead lost House seats in 1998.)

In a historically close election two years later, Republican George W. Bush lost the popular vote to Clinton's vice president, Al Gore Jr. But Bush won the Electoral College and the presidency after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Bush's favor in a case involving a lengthy Florida recount, a state that Bush won by just 537 votes.58

Bush had campaigned as “a uniter, not a divider.” Nevertheless, partisanship worsened during his eight years in office. Many Democrats were bitter about Clinton's impeachment, the GOP-dominated Supreme Court's role in resolving the 2000 election and Bush's decision to invade Iraq after al Qaeda's attacks on the Pentagon and New York City on Sept. 11, 2001. The administration's botched response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 in New Orleans drew further criticism, and Bush's approval rating dropped to as low as 25 percent during his second term.59

Democrats, meanwhile, were gaining strength in urban areas and among the African American electorate while the Republicans were solidifying their control of rural areas and the South. The GOP ran especially strongly with whites who were disenchanted with the globalized economy and alarmed over demographic changes in which the shares of Black, Hispanic and Asian American people were growing.60

These white Republican fears worsened after Barack Obama became the nation's first Black president in 2009. Michael Tesler, an assistant professor of political science at Brown University, said his research found that racial polarization increased during the Obama presidency.61

The Obama years also saw the rise of the tea party, a conservative movement that sought lower taxes and federal spending and tighter immigration controls. It appealed to white Republicans, many of whom resented government benefits to groups they regarded as undeserving of help, including ethnic minorities.62

Some Republicans and conservatives even asserted — falsely — that Obama was not born in the United States and thus was ineligible to serve as president. A leading voice of this “birther” movement was Donald Trump, who questioned Obama's legitimacy in an effort to curry favor with conservative whites.63

Racial attitudes helped the GOP gain white voters between the 2012 and 2016 elections, according to three scholars who analyzed voting data. Between 6.7 million and 9.2 million white voters switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016, they said.64

Obama himself, in a recently published memoir, wrote: “It was as if my very presence in the White House had triggered a deep-seated panic, a sense that the natural order had been disrupted. Which is exactly what Donald Trump understood when he started peddling assertions that I had not been born in the United States and was thus an illegitimate president.”65

Trump insisted he did not use racial appeals, declaring in a 2020 presidential debate that “I'm the least racist person in the room.”66

Trump's Takeover of the GOP

Trump entered the presidential race in 2015 as a highly unlikely candidate. Formerly a Democrat, he had never held public office and was known primarily as a real estate tycoon and host of a reality TV show called “The Apprentice.” He was able to stand out in a large field of Republican politicians by emphasizing his business background, by holding raucous rallies in which he insulted his opponents and by marketing his “Make America Great Again” slogan. Cable television could not look away.

Donald Trump speaks at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland on July 21, 2016, after securing the nomination for president. The businessman and former reality-TV star bested a large field of Republican politicians in the primaries and went on to pull off an upset in the general election despite losing the popular vote. (Getty Images/CQ Roll Call/Tom Williams)

In the general election, Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million to Democratic nominee Clinton but won the Electoral College in an upset that stunned pollsters. Although he secured the presidency, Trump complained that Clinton won the popular vote only because of fraud — a false claim that laid the groundwork for his 2020 efforts to retain the presidency.67

Once in office, Trump's continuing unpopularity with the general public contributed to Republicans losing control of the U.S. House in 2018 and the Senate and presidency in 2020.

He did achieve several policy victories. Trump successfully cut taxes and regulations. He appointed three conservative justices to the nine-member Supreme Court and more than 200 judges to lower federal courts. He reduced immigration substantially. He relocated the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, withdrew from a 2015 deal limiting Iran's nuclear program and pulled the United States out of the 2015 Paris climate accord.

But critics panned his leadership as the COVID-19 pandemic spread in spring 2020, eventually killing more than 562,000 Americans by mid-April 2021 — a toll that could have been held to near 100,000 had Trump acted earlier and more decisively, according to Deborah Birx, Trump's White House coronavirus response coordinator. The pandemic also devastated the economy, at least for a time.68

Trump presaged businesses' 2021 falling-out with Republicans by clashing with corporate executives over such policies as free trade, the environment and the relocation of factories abroad, going so far as to advocate boycotts of specific companies.69 He clashed with allied governments, questioned the usefulness of the NATO alliance and developed friendly personal relations with authoritarian leaders such as Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

He and his staff pushed “alternative facts,” a term used by White House adviser Kellyanne Conway. The Washington Post's fact-checking database tallied 30,573 false or misleading Trump statements during his four-year term.70

Following his loss to Biden, Trump insisted he had won in a landslide. He produced no supporting evidence that the election was stolen from him, and he lost more than 60 court cases in which he tried to get the results overturned.71

His effort to “Stop the Steal” culminated on Jan. 6 when his speech at a rally near the White House inspired his supporters to march to the Capitol to disrupt the certification of the electoral votes.72

“It is difficult to conceive of a more anti-democratic and anti-conservative act than a federal intervention to overturn the results of state-certified elections,” former House Speaker Ryan said of Trump's actions.73

The early assessment of historians is that Trump was one of the worst — if not the worst — president in U.S. history, according to a New York Times survey of scholars. In the most recent formal survey — Siena College's poll of 157 presidential scholars in 2018 — Trump ranked third from the bottom, above only James Buchanan, who directly preceded Abraham Lincoln, and Andrew Johnson, who followed the assassinated president in 1865. Several scholars in The Times' survey predicted that Trump would finish last in the next such survey.74

Since the Siena report, said Eric Rauchway, a history professor at the University of California, Davis, “Trump was the first president to be impeached twice and the first to stir up a mob to try to attack the Capitol and disrupt his successor from becoming president.”75

Trump, unsurprisingly, disagreed, declaring in 2018 that “nobody's ever done a better job than I'm doing as president.”76

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Current Situation

Voter Rights

Democrats in Congress and Republicans in more than 40 states are battling to determine how hard — or easy — it will be to vote in upcoming elections.

In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp signed legislation on March 25 that generally stiffens election regulations in that state. The law, passed by Republican legislators with no Democratic support, adds voter ID requirements for absentee voting, reduces mail-in voting opportunities, decreases access to drop boxes for returning absentee ballots, limits use of mobile voting units to emergencies and forbids distributing food and beverages to people waiting in line to vote, a wait that can take hours. Elections officials are allowed to make stationary water-dispensing facilities available.

The legislation also increases the number of days available for in-person early voting. It standardizes early-voting hours as 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. but allows local officials to open polls as early as 7 a.m. and close as late as 7 p.m.77

Republicans said the new rules are needed to increase public confidence in Georgia's elections. “The people that are still governing in the General Assembly wanted to do something about the problems that they saw with this election,” Kemp said. “And that's exactly what they have done.”78

But Democrats and civil rights activists noted that three recounts certified the 2020 Georgia presidential vote as accurate.

President Biden condemned the law as “Jim Crow in the 21st century” and said the Justice Department is investigating whether it can challenge the legislation. “Recount after recount and court case after court case upheld the integrity and outcome of a clearly free, fair and secure democratic process” in 2020, Biden said.79

Businesses joined in condemning the legislation in Georgia and other states.

Hundreds of companies signed a two-page ad that appeared in The New York Times and The Washington Post on April 14. The effort was organized by Kenneth Chenault, former CEO of American Express, and Kenneth Frazier, CEO of the Merck pharmaceutical firm. Signers included Netflix, Starbucks, Amazon and MasterCard.

Other companies, such as Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines and Coca-Cola, criticized laws in Georgia and elsewhere without signing the ad. Major League Baseball moved this year's All-Star game from Atlanta to Denver.80

Senate Republican Leader McConnell accused the companies of “dabbling in behaving like a woke parallel government.” The Georgia House voted to rescind a tax break benefiting Delta, but the Legislature adjourned before the Senate acted on the bill. U.S. Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., said he would draft legislation to remove professional baseball's antitrust exemption.81

Opponents of a Georgia measure to impose stricter voting requirements demonstrate inside the state's Capitol in Atlanta on March 8. Similar bills have been pushed by Republicans in 47 states to prevent what they say is election fraud. (Getty Images/Megan Varner)

The Georgia legislation is part of a nationwide movement by Republicans to restrict access to the polls to prevent what they say is fraud. The efforts follow 2020 elections that featured record turnouts and a declaration by a federal watchdog agency that the voting was “the most secure in American history.”82

Lawmakers in 47 states have proposed more than 360 bills to make voting more difficult, according to a March 24 count by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. At the same time, legislators have proposed more than 840 measures to make voting easier in another set of 47 states, the center reported. Those plans would increase access to mail voting and early voting, make voter registration easier and restore the right to vote to people who lost it because they were convicted of a crime.83

In Washington, congressional Democrats are promoting two bills — H.R.1 and H.R.4 — that would outlaw many of the restrictions being pushed by Republicans at the state level.

H.R.1 passed the House in March and is awaiting action in the Senate. It would require automatic voter registration, expand absentee voting, guarantee the ability to vote early and restore voting rights to people convicted of criminal violations.

In addition, it would ban gerrymandering by mandating independent redistricting commissions. It would overhaul campaign finance regulations, including offering a 6-to-1 match of federal funds to small donations for candidates for Congress and requiring stricter disclosure of so-called “dark money” contributions, which currently can be anonymous. It also would require presidential and vice presidential candidates to disclose their income tax returns.

Hans von Spakovsky, head of the Election Law Reform Initiative at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, said that some of the bill's provisions “would make things much worse, usurping the role of the states, wiping out basic safety protocols, and mandating a set of rules that would severely damage the integrity of the election process.” Supporters of the bills respond that the changes are needed to overcome voter suppression measures adopted by state legislators.84

H.R.4 has not passed either chamber yet. It would restore the ability of the federal government under the 1965 Voting Rights Act to review proposed changes in state elections laws in some circumstances, an authority that was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2013.85

Michael Li, an elections expert at the Brennan Center, says the Republican attempts to limit voting are “puzzling” because the GOP did reasonably well in the high-turnout voting last year, with Trump winning more than 74 million votes — a record for a Republican nominee.

Republicans flipped 14 Democratic-held seats in the House and did not lose control of a single state legislature. The U.S. Senate is tied, with Democrats in charge only because Vice President Kamala Harris can break 50-50 votes.

Republicans continue to control 30 state legislatures and 27 governor's mansions. Trump would have won the Electoral College by flipping just 42,918 votes in three states — Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona — out of more than 155 million votes cast.86 Because of their control of state legislatures and governorships, Republicans will have the power to redraw 181 congressional districts before the 2022 elections, Li says.

“I think, given what you saw, you can't necessarily correlate high voter turnout with good news for Democrats,” he says.

Midterm Prospects

Many analysts say Republicans can look to the 2022 midterm elections with optimism because the party that wins the presidency usually loses congressional seats two years later. The GOP's prospects also are boosted by the just released 2020 census, which showed population changes will increase the number of U.S. House seats in some states carried by Trump last year, including Texas and Florida, while decreasing the number in some states won by Biden.

Some of the GOP advantage might be blunted by the fact that much of the population growth was in groups that tend to vote Democratic, according to Kelly Ward Burton, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

Unless Congress changes redistricting laws nationwide, gerrymandering will help Republicans next year as well. They will control redistricting for 187 congressional seats, while Democrats will control 75 seats. But Democrats will be defending just 14 Senate seats to the Republicans' 20.87

Schlapp of the American Conservative Union says Republicans will benefit politically if Democrats continue to press their policy priorities without GOP support. “I think that means they're going hard left for the next four years, and we're going to have a national conversation about whether this country is going to become socialist.”

Others warn Republicans could suffer if far-right Trump supporters win primaries and campaign on such issues as restricting immigration, resisting public health guidance on the pandemic and questioning the accuracy of the last election. “You're running against a unified Democratic control with history on your side for winning back seats, and they could very well squander that,” said Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.88

Claremont McKenna College's Pitney predicts that “everything will depend on how well Biden and the Democrats do [in governing]. If we have a strong recovery, if we avoid trouble at the border and if we get past the pandemic, I think the Democrats have a reasonably good chance of holding their own.”

So far, Americans give Biden a positive approval rating and rate Congress higher than at any time since 2009. An average of polls by the political website FiveThirtyEight puts Biden's approval level at 54.5 percent as of April 25. Trump never broke 50 percent throughout his term, although most presidents since World War II scored higher than Biden at this stage of their terms. Even though Congress' approval rating has risen, it still was just 36 percent in a Gallup Poll published March 23.89

During the campaign and after his election, Biden promised to pursue bipartisanship to get things done in Washington. But, as Schlapp notes, that has not worked so far.

Biden pushed his $1.9 trillion stimulus and COVID-relief bill through Congress without a single Republican vote, using a rarely available procedure called reconciliation to avoid the need to muster 60 votes to end a filibuster. Sen. Sanders, I-Vt., the Senate Budget Committee chair, said he is preparing to use the procedure again to move multitrillion-dollar infrastructure legislation.90

Reconciliation cannot be used for the election bills because it is restricted to budgetary legislation. So, if Democrats cannot attract at least 10 GOP votes on election legislation, passage could come only by altering or eliminating the filibuster rule — actions many but not all Democrats have long advocated. As a senator, Biden was reluctant to eliminate the filibuster. But he said recently that he is open to requiring senators to speak continuously on the Senate floor to keep a filibuster going, as used to be the case.91

Contributing to bleak prospects for cooperation is the announced retirement of legislators known for working across the aisle. One of them, GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, complained of “partisan gridlock” in “an increasingly polarized country where members of both parties are being pushed further to the right and further to the left.” The outcome, he lamented, is “too few people who are actively looking to find common ground.”92

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Outlook

GOP's Challenges

Many political analysts say the Republican Party's future depends on how Trump conducts himself and whether Biden and congressional Democrats succeed in taming the pandemic and revitalizing the economy.

Most say Trump would secure the GOP nomination if he ran for president again in 2024, but many add that winning the general election would be much harder.

The party's challenges include broadening its appeal to women, minorities and the young; healing internal divisions that widened during Trump's campaigns and presidency; and reconciling the conflicting policies favored by traditional Republicans and the new blue-collar voters that Trump drew to the party.

Dallek, the historian, expects “Trump and Trumpism to remain a powerful force within the party,” but much depends on how the former president participates in upcoming primaries and general elections. Supporting Trump-like candidates who win elections and help retake control of Congress “strengthens Trump's grip on the party,” Dallek says. But “it's not as if Trump has this brilliant path for a Republican majority,” he adds, noting the setbacks of the previous two election cycles.

Former President George W. Bush is a Trump critic. But “one thing for sure,” Pitney of Claremont McKenna College says, “it's not going to be the Bushes' party,” even if Trump is sidelined. “There's no question that most rank-and-file Republicans see him as their leader.”

Pitney says the investigations and lawsuits help Trump “because he will claim he's being persecuted,” but also will hurt him “because he's going to have to spend a lot of his own money and time on defense.”

One way the GOP can broaden its base is “to make serious inroads within the new groups that are moving into this country,” DiSarro of Washington & Jefferson College says. He says the party's traditional support for small business could win votes from immigrants, because many open small businesses as his immigrant father did.

Abandoning Trump's caustic rhetoric could help Republicans attract young people, say columnist Abernathy and Pitney, who both recall hearing many youths say of the former president: “He's cruel.”

Many business executives will remain alienated from the GOP if Trump's policies and abrasive personality continue to dominate the party, Yale's Sonnenfeld says. Business leaders “don't like the isolationism,” he says. “They don't like the racial and gender divisiveness, the immigration policies, and the recklessness on deficits.

There is a good chance that traditional Republicanism — which favors free trade, lower government spending and robust defense and foreign policies — will “regain its luster,” the Niskanen Center's Kabaservice said. But that is not guaranteed, he added, noting that working-class voters were drawn to the GOP Trump's nontraditional policies such as trade protectionism.93

Abernathy says that Republicans' prospects in future elections have been enhanced by their successes outside Washington. “A big, important event was the Republicans increasing their majority in state [governments] across the country,” he says. As a result, GOP-controlled governments are able to draw federal and state legislative districts to favor their candidates in more states than Democrats can.

That advantage could be negated by both congressional and citizen efforts to require that district boundaries be drawn by nonpartisan or bipartisan panels, the Brennan Center's Li says.

Prospects for the citizen efforts look better than in Congress because of growing public support, but likely will take longer to accomplish, Li says.

“Gerrymandering is an issue that resonates with voters now in a way that it didn't 10 or 15 years ago,” he says. “Now we talk with reformers who tell us that they went door to door getting petitions signed, and it seems everybody was ready to sign — Democrats and Republicans.”

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Pro/Con

Is sticking with Donald Trump the Republicans' best bet for winning in 2022 and beyond?

Pro Lindsey Graham U.S. Senator, Republican, South Carolina. Excerpted from interviews with Fox News, Feb. 16, and Axios, March 8, 2021 I want us to continue the policies that I think will make America strong. I believe the best way for the Republican Party to do that is with Trump, not without Trump. I could say: That's it. It's over. It's done. That's just too easy. What's hard is to take a movement that I think is good for the country and try to get the leader of the movement, who has got lots of problems facing him and the party, and see if we can make a go of it. Mitt Romney didn't do it. John McCain didn't do it. There's something about Trump. There's a dark side, and there's some magic there, and what I'm trying to do is just harness the magic. To me, Donald Trump is sort of a cross between Jesse Helms, Ronald Reagan and P.T. Barnum. It's just this bigger-than-life deal. He could make the Republican Party something that nobody else I know could make it. He can make it bigger. He can make it stronger. He can make it more diverse. Why do people like President Trump so much in the Republican Party? He was a damn good president. He rebuilt the military. He brought order to chaos at the border. He cut our taxes. He destroyed the caliphate, put Iran in a box and put three great justices on the Supreme Court and hundreds of conservative judges throughout the federal judiciary. President Trump is the most consequential Republican in the party…. President Trump [is] the hope of the future of conservatism…. I know Trump can be a handful, but he is the most dominant figure in the Republican Party. We don't have a snowball's chance in hell of taking back the majority without Donald Trump…. He was a hell of a president on all the things that conservatives really believe in. It was a consequential presidency. I'm sorry what happened on January the 6th. He'll get his fair share of blame. But to my Republican colleagues in the Senate: Let's try to work together, realize that without President Trump we're never [going to] get back in the majority. And to President Trump: You're [going to] have to make some changes for you to reach your potential. At the end of the day, we're [going to] hang separately or we're going to hang together as Republicans.

Con Gary Abernathy Washington Post Columnist and Former Republican Elected Official. Written for CQ Researcher, April 2021 Donald Trump arguably brought millions of new voters into the Republican Party, overcame all odds to win the 2016 election, received more votes in 2020 than any Republican in history and left office with historically high approval ratings among the GOP faithful. But he has forfeited the right to carry the GOP banner into the future. For millions of Americans, Trump was a reviled character. First, he ripped the GOP from the hands of the establishment figures who had long controlled it, and then derailed the dream of the left — including many in the media — of inaugurating the first female president. As a result, the media often treated Trump unfairly. Many outlets changed long-standing rules of journalism to create special guidelines for reporting on Trump under the excuse that he was so outrageous and dishonest — characteristics that traditional journalism could have covered just fine. Journalism may have helped break Trump, but Trump also broke journalism. But in the end, despite two politically motivated impeachments and a constant drumbeat of negative media coverage, Trump was his own worst enemy. There was nothing wrong with questioning certain aspects of an election that saw unprecedented participation through mail-in balloting under a patchwork of new, untested regulations. But numerous investigations and court challenges yielded no credible evidence of the kind of widespread fraud that would change the results. If he had accepted his defeat and demonstrated even a minimal measure of class, Trump could well have continued wearing the mantle of party leader. Instead, Trump disrespected the will of the electorate, thumbed his nose at our tradition of a peaceful transfer of power and contributed to an unruly mob storming the U.S. Capitol, a disgraceful moment in history that resulted in death and destruction. Trump forfeited the right to ever again be entrusted with the presidency. But while Trump himself cannot be the GOP's leader, the movement he created has clearly become the party's platform — a platform devoted to individual freedom, energy independence, securing the southern border, an “America First” foreign policy and a dedication to free speech and thought that's often at odds with cancel-culture “wokeness.” There will be a skirmish for the “soul of the party” between the pro-Trump faithful versus Never Trump Republicans. The result will be a sort of odd compromise — Trump will rightfully be sidelined, but Trumpism will flourish.

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Discussion Questions

Here are some questions to consider regarding the Republican Party's future:

• Should the GOP continue to embrace former President Donald Trump's leadership? Why or why not?

• The party has won the popular vote in presidential elections only once since 1992. How can it expand its base of support? Is its hostility to immigration and other appeals aimed primarily at white voters smart or is this bad politics?

• Is Trump's brand of populism effective? Or should the GOP return to its traditional values of promoting free trade, balanced budgets and an interventionist foreign policy?

• Do you think Trump's Republican critics, such as the Lincoln Project, have been effective?

• If you were a local GOP leader or activist, would you advocate that the party turn to a new generation of leaders? Why or why not?

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Short Features

Numerous Republicans Eye White House Run

If Donald Trump decides not to seek the presidency in 2024, the Republican field could get crowded — and the hurdles for leading candidates could be many.

The most-talked-about contenders include U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Josh Hawley of Missouri; Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Kristi Noem of South Dakota; and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was Trump's ambassador to the United Nations.

Hawley thrust himself to the forefront of GOP ranks as a fervid Trump supporter and a leading champion of Trump's unsubstantiated claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him. But the Jan. 6 invasion of the Capitol damaged the 41-year-old's image among more mainstream political and financial supporters.

Hawley was the first senator to announce plans to vote against certifying some of Joe Biden's Electoral College ballots. On the day Congress certified the election results, Hawley was photographed raising his fist in solidarity with the crowd that shortly afterward forced its way into the Capitol.1

Former Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo., who had promoted Hawley's fast-rising career, said after the riot that supporting Hawley was “the worst mistake I ever made.”2

Some individual donors stopped contributing. Hallmark Cards, which is headquartered in Missouri, asked Hawley to return its contributions. The editorial board of the Kansas City Star, Missouri's second-largest newspaper, said Hawley had “blood on his hands” for his role in the riot.3

McKenna College politics professor John Pitney Jr. says the criticism may actually strengthen Hawley's standing among Republicans. “If there's one characteristic of Trumpism, it's owning the libs,” and Hawley's actions fit into that category, Pitney says.

Possible 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls include (from left) Ted Cruz of Texas; Josh Hawley of Missouri; Nikki Haley of South Carolina; Ron DeSantis of Florida; and Kristi Noem of South Dakota. (Getty Images/Greg Nash/Bill Clark/John Lamparski/Joe Raedle/Committee on Arrangements for the 2020 Republican National Committee)

Haley is another rising star whose reputation suffered recently, but for a different reason.

She criticized Trump for inciting the crowd before the Capitol invasion, saying: “He went down a path he shouldn't have, and we shouldn't have followed him.” She has tried to walk that comment back and unsuccessfully sought a meeting with Trump in February.4

Geoffrey Kabaservice, who used to work for the Republican Main Street Partnership and is director of political studies at the Niskanen Center think tank, says her reversal makes Haley “a flip-flopper, and flip-floppers don't tend to be seen as front-runners.” Pitney says the flip-flop “probably rules her out.”

Before Haley's comments about the riot, Jason Shepherd, GOP chairman in Cobb County, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta, described Haley as “extremely popular” in his community. The party might do better with a younger nominee, he said of the 49-year-old. “Maybe, to quote George H.W. Bush, a kinder and gentler candidate.”5

Gary Abernathy — a conservative columnist for The Washington Post and a former Republican officeholder — describes Haley and Noem as “fresh faces in terms of presidential politics. Having a woman lead the Republican ticket would not be a bad thing at all. Republicans really need to reach out more to the suburban woman.”

Cotton, who has a solid conservative voting record, opposed challenging the presidential election results and criticized the president and fellow lawmakers for doing so.

“You have some senators, who for political advantage, were giving false hope to their supporters, misleading them into thinking that somehow yesterday's actions in Congress could reverse the results of the election,” he said on Jan. 7. “It's past time for the president to accept the results of the election, quit misleading the American people and repudiate mob violence.”

Trump supporters quickly attacked Cotton's “betrayal,” with Fox News contributors Todd Starnes and Michelle Malkin calling for a primary challenge.6

Likewise, Trump supporters remain angry at former Vice President Mike Pence, who may also run, because he did not help Trump try to overturn the election.7

DeSantis and Noem performed best, except for Trump, in a straw poll during the Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida in February. Trump led with 55 percent support, followed by DeSantis with 21 percent and Noem with 4 percent. Asked their preference for president without Trump on the ballot, the conference attendees gave DeSantis 43 percent and Noem 11 percent. All others were in single digits.8

DeSantis enjoys significant support in the GOP because “he regularly beats up the media and Democrats in a way that makes his supporters think he's a fighter,” Kabaservice says.

The governor has gained national attention as a Trump-like polarizing figure who resisted scientific advice to fight the coronavirus by mandating masks and banning public gatherings in what he called “the free state of Florida.” The state suffered a deadly surge of COVID-19 infections last summer, but now ranks near the middle — 24th of the 50 states in cases per 100,000 and 28th in deaths as of April 25, and DeSantis said he deserves the credit. “Everyone told me I was wrong,” the governor said. “It's clear: Florida got it right.” Critics of DeSantis attribute the state's improved numbers to mayors who imposed mandates that the governor opposed.9

DeSantis has developed a national network of campaign donors and has described his approach to government and politics this way: “We have too many people in this party who don't fight back. You can't be scared of the left, you can't be scared of the media and you can't be scared of Big Tech.”10

Cruz finished second to Trump in delegates to the Republican National Convention in 2016 and has been considered a potential presidential nominee ever since. A strong Trump critic in 2016, he has become an avid supporter and was a leader of the attempt to overturn the 2020 election.11

Cruz stumbled in mid-February, however, when he traveled to tropical Cancun, Mexico, while hundreds of thousands of his constituents lost power, heat and water during a deadly winter storm. His initial explanation — that he went at the behest of his daughters who were out of school because of the storm — was ridiculed. He returned to Texas after less than 24 hours and admitted that the trip was “obviously a mistake.”12

Cruz is notoriously unpopular on Capitol Hill. Former Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota famously quipped: “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.”13

Kabaservice says Cruz also is “an extremely unpopular guy with the general public.” But Cruz enjoyed a 68 percent approval rating among Republicans in a nationwide poll conducted for The Economist and YouGov between Feb. 13 and 16, just before his Cancun trip. Although he suffered a drop after the trip, he still posted 60 percent approval in polling between Feb. 19 and 22.14

Sarah Chamberlain, president and chief executive officer of the Republican Main Street Partnership, says her members, who are generally moderates, would prefer a candidate like U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska or Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan — “people that win across the board.”

“Hogan is interesting to me because maybe he changes the Electoral College and carries Maryland,” she says. “Hawley and Cruz are making the loudest noise, but they're not people my Main Street members would vote for.”

Cheney and Sasse have crossed swords with Trump, however, and many GOP primary voters might not view Hogan, a moderate in a blue state, as conservative enough.

As Marc Thiessen, a former top aide to former President George W. Bush, put it: “It is highly unlikely an anti-Trump Republican will win the GOP nomination.”15

— Tom Price

[1] Jack Suntrup, “Sen. Josh Hawley on defense in Missouri and elsewhere as election challenge fails,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jan. 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yk8r383w.

[2] Tony Messenger, “Messenger: Danforth calls his support of Hawley the ‘worst mistake’ of his life,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jan. 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3rhahhrx.

[3] Suntrup, op. cit.; Dan Zak, “What does Josh Hawley think he's doing?” The Washington Post, Jan. 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/fpummuv7.

[4] Dan Balz, “As Trump reemerges, will the GOP find a way to move on without him?” The Washington Post, Feb. 27, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/jtaap8ud.

[5] Jess Bidgood, “Trump's refusal to concede stalls GOP reckoning over 2020 loss,” The Boston Globe, Dec. 5, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/jscd7ydh.

[6] Suntrup, op. cit.; Aaron Blake, “An insurrection sets an ugly stage for 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls,” The Washington Post, Jan. 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/b5m64zhe; and Igor Derysh, “Trump supporters turn on Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton for breaking with GOP election challenge,” Salon, Jan. 4, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2sfp36fw.

[7] Jill Colvin, “Trump's heir? Pence reemerges, lays groundwork for 2024 run,” The Associated Press, March 30, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/xhrmstut.

[8] Jemima McEvoy, “Trump Wins CPAC Straw Poll, With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis His Closest Contender,” Forbes, Feb. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yvdpamr7.

[9] Jeff Zeleny, “A year into the pandemic, Florida is booming and Republican Gov. DeSantis is taking credit,” CNN, March 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ayphwr4d; “Covid Data Tracker,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, April 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/29eva2e6.

[10] Patricia Mazzei, “Could Ron DeSantis Be Trump's G.O.P. Heir?” The New York Times, April 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/48zddjja; “Covid Data Tracker: United States COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by State,” U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, April 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/hm4b8ubu.

[11] “Republican Party CNN Delegate Estimate,” CNN, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/4p5nvpam.

[12] Will Weissert and Steve Peoples, “Will voters remember? Cruz trip tests durability of scandal,” The Associated Press, Feb. 19, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/mnubp8uj.

[13] Celine Castronuovo, “Ted Cruz mocks Al Franken over ‘I Hate Ted Cruz Pint Glass,’” The Hill, Oct. 8, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/hpusuu29.

[14] Kathy Frankovic, “Ted Cruz favorability rating takes a hit among Republicans after he left Texas for Cancún,” YouGov, Feb. 23, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/wf3f63u.

[15] Marc A. Thiessen, “A lot of Trump supporters want someone else to carry Trumpism's banner into 2024,” The Washington Post, March 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/avc4fepp.

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Trump's GOP Foes Continue the Fight Amid Lincoln Project Controversies

Donald Trump has an army of admirers within the Republican Party — and battalions of critics as well.

The Lincoln Project, with its tens of millions of dollars of pointed video ads, became the best known — and now is under siege itself. But disaffected GOP activists also flocked to Republican Voters Against Trump; 43 Alumni for America (Republican George W. Bush was the 43rd president); Reclaim Our Party; the Bravery Project; the Republican Political Alliance for Integrity and Reform; Christians Against Trumpism & Political Extremism; and others.

Even with Trump out of the White House, the Lincoln Project and 43 Alumni for America are continuing their campaigns against the former president, who continues to enjoy wide support within the GOP. Three-quarters of Republicans want him to play a major role in the party in the future, according to a Quinnipiac University poll in February, for example.16

“Although Donald Trump was defeated [in November], the threat of Trumpism still lingers,” the Lincoln Project said in explaining why it is not disbanding. The organization said it will focus on opposing voter suppression and discouraging corporate contributions to legislators who supported Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.

To defeat Trumpism, the group said, “we must ensure that Republicans lose seats in both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House as well as governorships around the country.”17

Speaking in more general terms, 43 Alumni said it will be “promoting honor, integrity and empathy among our nation's elected officials.”18

People who worked for George W. Bush make up the Alumni group. GOP political operatives who became disenchanted with Trump created and run the Lincoln Project.

Some political observers said the anti-Trump Republicans would have been more effective during the presidential campaign if they had joined forces.

GOP strategist Lucy Caldwell, for example, criticized the “duplicative efforts in areas like digital, paid and earned media, with virtually no significant or coordinated effort in areas like field, or building a killer data set that everyone is making use of and enhancing.”19

But others see value in the variety of approaches. Lincoln Project co-founder Steve Schmidt — a longtime adviser to prominent Republicans such as the late Sen. John McCain of Arizona — said multiple groups were “necessary to show defiance and opposition to a president and political class that's completely enabled him.”

“Having another voice” is worthwhile, argued software billionaire Greg Schott, who created Reclaim Our Party to influence conservative-leaning independents and wavering Republicans. “It's saying, ‘Here's yet another group of Republicans that are saying it's OK to vote against Donald Trump.’ More voices saying it is better.”20

The Lincoln Project reported raising and spending nearly $90 million from late 2019 to early 2021. Much of the money funded videos attacking Trump, many of which went viral.21

The Lincoln Project's 2020 video “Mourning in America,” a play on Ronald Reagan's famous 1984 re-election campaign ad, attacked Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Screenshot)

One of the most talked-about videos was called “Mourning in America,” a play on a famous Ronald Reagan ad titled “Morning in America.” While Reagan's 1984 re-election campaign commercial touted his accomplishments, the Lincoln Project's spot lambasted Trump's handling of the pandemic.

As the Lincoln Project video showed images of empty streets and people in masks, a narrator charged that Trump “bailed out Wall Street, but not Main Street” and made the country “weaker and sicker and poorer.” In response, Trump derided the project as “a group of RINO [Republicans in Name Only] Republicans who failed badly 12 years ago, then again 8 years ago, and then got BADLY beaten by me. They're all LOSERS.”22

Trump's attacks shined a spotlight on the Lincoln Project, and donations soared. Billionaire hedge fund manager Stephen Mandel donated $1 million in June, and thousands of donors sent in small contributions.

The group stumbled early this year, however, when John Weaver, one of the group's founders, was accused of sexually harassing young men. The New York Times revealed one message from Weaver that offered to help them in their careers in exchange for sex.

The problem escalated with reports that some of the project's leaders knew about the allegations last summer.23 Weaver apologized for sending “inappropriate” messages but said he believed the relationships were consensual. He took a medical leave from the group in August but did not sever his ties with other Lincoln Project personnel, then announced in January that he would not return.24

The Lincoln Project was hit by controversies on other fronts as well.

Two of its largest contractors, project co-founders Ron Steslow and Mike Madrid, received seats on the Lincoln Project's board, a violation of governance standards, The Times reported.

The project paid about $27 million to Summit Strategic Communications, a consulting firm run by Reed Galen, another co-founder, The Times said. Galen and Lincoln co-founders Weaver, Rick Wilson and Schmidt received income from the firm, according to The Times. 25

Steslow and Madrid left the project's board in December, and Schmidt took a leave of absence from the board while continuing to work for the project.26

Another former board member, anti-Trump activist George Conway III — who is married to former high-ranking Trump aide Kellyanne Conway — said the organization should disband.27

The organization instead has taken less drastic steps to address the criticisms. It formed a management advisory board and an advisory committee of donors, hired a financial comptroller and published a “stewardship report.”28

Lincoln Project adviser Stuart Stevens, who was chief strategist for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign, described the organization's troubles as “a rough couple of weeks. All you can do is acknowledge, take responsibility and move on.”29

— Tom Price

[16] Alison Durkee, “Poll: Most Americans Want Trump Stopped From Holding Future Office — Except Republicans,” Forbes, Feb 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/6mt2h34z.

[17] “The Lincoln Project 2020 Stewardship Report,” the Lincoln Project, https://tinyurl.com/y68jua4d.

[18] “Frequently Asked Questions,” 43 Alumni for America, https://tinyurl.com/a4s5mwt5.

[19] Annie Karni, “The Crowded, Competitive World of Anti-Trump G.O.P. Groups,” The New York Times, Jan. 21, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/mv35x8cc.

[20] Ibid.

[21] “The Lincoln Project 2020 Stewardship Report,” op. cit.

[22] Simon Dumenco, “‘Mourning in America’: A Conservative Group's Harsh New Political Ad Takes On Trump's Coronavirus Response,” Ad Age, May 4, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/v2htemeb; Danny Hakim, Maggie Astor and Jo Becker, “Inside the Lincoln Project's Secrets, Side Deals and Scandals,” The New York Times, March 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/r4kcpyd5.

[23] Hakim, Astor and Becker, op. cit.; Maggie Astor and Danny Hakim, “21 Men Accuse Lincoln Project Co-Founder of Online Harassment,” The New York Times, Jan. 31, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yxxxzf5j; and Hakim and Astor, op. cit.

[24] Danny Hakim and Maggie Astor, “Lincoln Project Co-Founder Resigns From Board Amid a Deepening Crisis,” The New York Times, Feb. 14, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/45p3z9kw.

[25] Hakim, Astor and Becker, op. cit.

[26] Hakim and Astor, op. cit.; Hakim, Astor and Becker, ibid.

[27] Danny Hakim and Jo Becker, “George Conway, a Lincoln Project founder, backs shuttering the group amid a harassment crisis,” The New York Times, Feb. 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/39jmzajn.

[28] “The Lincoln Project 2020 Stewardship Report,” op. cit.

[29] Hakim, Astor and Becker, op. cit.

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Bibliography

Books

Applebaum, Anne, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism, Doubleday, 2020. A staff writer for The Atlantic describes how the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, became the American vehicle for a worldwide drift of democracies toward authoritarianism.

Coppins, McKay, The Wilderness: Deep Inside the Republican Party's Combative, Contentious, Chaotic Quest to Take Back the White House , Little, Brown and Company, 2015. An Atlantic staff writer offers an inside look at the maneuverings of leading Republican presidential hopefuls in the lead-up to the 2016 campaign.

Pitney, John J. Jr., Un-American: The Fake Patriotism of Donald J. Trump, Rowman & Littlefield, 2020. A former Republican Party official who is a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in California argues that the former president's many professions of patriotism resembled his time on television: a reality show, not reality.

Richardson, Heather Cox, To Make Men Free: A History of the Republican Party, Basic Books, 2014. A political historian traces the history of the GOP from Abraham Lincoln through such disparate party leaders as Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan.

Articles

Bahnsen, David L., “Assessment of the Trump Presidency, and the Path Forward,” National Review, Jan. 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/bpfbx53n. A conservative writer identifies aspects of the Trump administration that were “unambiguously good,” such as the Supreme Court nominations, and aspects that were “abject disaster,” such as President Trump's behavior.

Boburg, Shawn, and Jon Swaine, “A GOP donor gave $2.5 million for a voter fraud investigation. Now he wants his money back,” The Washington Post, Feb. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/waxbn3cc. Post reporters tell the tale of a conservative political donor who gave $2 million to a search for voter fraud, then came to believe the election was not rigged after all.

Cummings, William, Joey Garrison and Jim Sergent, “By the numbers: President Donald Trump's failed efforts to overturn the election,” USA Today, Jan. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/t6vvnp77. Journalists explain how Donald Trump attempted to overturn the election, dissecting the 62 lawsuits he filed and the 61 he lost.

Hakim, Danny, Maggie Astor and Jo Becker, “Inside the Lincoln Project's Secrets, Side Deals and Scandals,” The New York Times, March 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/r4kcpyd5. Times reporters offer a detailed look at the successes and troubles of the organization of disenchanted Republican operatives who created some of the most-talked-about video attacks on Trump.

Siders, David, “The Birthplace of the Republican Party Buckles After Trump Nearly Blew Up the GOP,” Politico, Feb. 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/f46rwbv9. A political correspondent offers a personalized look at the state of the Republican Party through the eyes of the embattled party chairman in Fond du Lac County, Wis., where Whigs, Free-Soilers and anti-slavery Democrats organized the GOP in 1854.

Reports and Studies

“Siena's 6th Presidential Expert Poll 1982-2018,” Siena College Research Institute, Feb. 13, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/5b6p37tp. A survey of 157 scholars during Donald Trump's second year in office ranks him the third-worst president in history, above only James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson.

“Voting Laws Roundup: March 2021,” Brennan Center for Justice, April 1, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/9k36nvnz. A liberal-leaning research organization at New York University describes Republican proposals to restrict voting in 47 states.

Butler, Stuart M., and Timothy Higashi, “Some good news on bipartisanship: The Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress,” Brookings Institution, March 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/28k3sbxv. At a time of high polarization, two Brookings scholars find evidence that Republicans can cooperate with Democrats in the workings of the House Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress.

Reny, Tyler, Loren Collingwood and Ali Valenzuela, “Vote Switching in the 2016 Election: How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2019, https://tinyurl.com/49fpfydr. Three scholars analyze a large voter database and conclude that racial hostility was a major reason voters switched allegiance from Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 to Republican Donald Trump in 2016.

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The Next Step

Former President Trump

Mastrangelo, Dominick, “Trump: Georgia Republicans ‘afraid to be called racist’ before passing voter law,” The Hill, April 20, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/v37ahnhd. Donald Trump said a new Georgia law that tightens voter registration requirements and shortens the period in which a voter can request a mail ballot should have also included rules on signature verification for mail-in ballots.

Orr, Gabby, “Andrew Giuliani to meet with Trump as he preps NY gubernatorial bid,” CNN, April 21, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/k8wtvtmt. Multiple candidates running in next year's Republican primary for New York governor are seeking Trump's endorsement.

Siders, David, “‘It's almost like insanity’: GOP base continues to lash out over Trump's defeat,” Politico, April 20, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4akjyv8n. Republicans in Georgia continue to support local candidates and party chairs who emulate Trump, even as it costs them support in Atlanta's suburbs.

“Never Trumpers”

Hakim, Danny, and Jo Becker, “George Conway, a Lincoln Project founder, backs shuttering the group amid a harassment crisis,” The New York Times, Feb. 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/39jmzajn. A founder of the Lincoln Project says the “Never Trump” group should disband because one of its leaders has been accused of sexual harassment.

Lahut, Jake, “From ‘Infowars GOP’ to ‘Never Trump,’ these 5 factions compose the current Republican Party, according to Trump's former pollster,” Business Insider, March 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3u5ypbr4. A former pollster for ex-President Trump says Republicans fall into five distinct tribes and estimates the Never Trump faction makes up only 15 percent of the party's voters.

Tilove, Jonathan, “An Anti-Trump Republican Dares to Run for Congress in North Texas,” Texas Monthly, April 19, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/hs46eb94. A former Marine running in a crowded Republican primary to represent a Texas congressional district that includes Fort Worth is betting that voters will elect a Trump critic.

Republican Donors

Isenstadt, Alex, “‘A nicer version of Trump’: GOP donors flock to DeSantis,” Politico, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/792aar87. Major Republican donors from across the country are supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' 2022 re-election bid, while some view the Republican as a viable 2024 presidential candidate.

Russonello, Giovanni, “Why the GOP Can't Quit Trump,” The New York Times, April 12, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/dm58p6v4. Small-dollar donors who like Trump continue to be a significant source of funding for the Republican Party.

Schwartz, Brian, “GOP donors, leaders discussed plans to take on Big Tech, corporations during retreat at Trump's Mar-a-Lago,” CNBC, April 13, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/478sdntx. Some Republican donors are considering funding an alternative social media platform to attract conservative users.

Voting Laws and Gerrymandering

Grim, Ryan, “Republicans Are Poised To Gerrymander Their Way Back To A Majority,” The Intercept, April 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/6r2f3y5c. Democrats could lose their slim House majority in 2022 due to gerrymandering in Republican-controlled states.

Schladen, Marty, “Advocates Tout an ‘Incredible Opportunity’ to Tamp Down Gerrymandering in Ohio,” Ohio Capital Journal, March 22, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/wbv5d7n2. A delay in delivering census results due to the COVID-19 pandemic has given community groups time to organize ahead of a fight over gerrymandering this fall in Ohio.

Ura, Alexa, “Here's how Texas elections would change, and become more restrictive, under the bill Texas Republicans are pushing,” Texas Tribune, April 21, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5uy9s9az. Critics of a Texas proposal to change voting regulations say it would create restrictions on early voting and how voters can receive vote-by-mail applications.

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Contacts

American Conservative Union
1199 N. Fairfax St., Suite 500, Alexandria, VA 22314
202-347-9388
conservative.org
Conservative activist organization that sponsors the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which is highly influential in Republican politics.

American Enterprise Institute
1150 17th St., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-862-5800
aei.org
Conservative-leaning think tank whose scholars study and write about politics, public opinion, economics and foreign affairs.

Bipartisan Policy Center
225 I St., N.W., Suite 1000, Washington, D.C. 20005
202-204-2400
bipartisanpolicy.org
Think tank, with members from across the political spectrum, that studies and promotes bipartisanship as the most effective way to get things done in government.

Brennan Center for Justice
120 Broadway, Suite 1750, New York, NY 10271
646-292-8310
brennancenter.org
Liberal-leaning law and policy institute at New York University that studies and reports on, among other topics, voter suppression and gerrymandering.

Heritage Foundation
214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E., Washington, DC 20002
202-546-4400
heritage.org
Conservative think tank and advocacy group.

Lincoln Project
600 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E., #15180, Washington, DC 20003
lincolnproject.us
Leading group of disaffected Republican operatives who opposed President Donald Trump's reelection and continue to fight “Trumpism.”

Main Street Partnership
325 7th St., N.W., Suite 610, Washington, DC 20004
202-393-4353
republicanmainstreet.org
Organization of centrist Republicans, including more than 60 members of Congress, that works on health care and other issues.

Republican Governors Association
1747 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Suite 250, Washington, DC 20006
202-662-4140
rga.org
Organization that supports the election of Republican gubernatorial candidates.

Republican National Committee
310 1st St., S.E., Washington, DC 20003
202-863-8500
gop.com
National governing body of the Republican Party.

Republican State Leadership Committee
1201 F St., N.W., #675, Washington, DC 20004
202-448-5160
rslc.com
Group that works to elect Republicans to state offices.

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Footnotes

[1] Jon Delano, “Western Pa. Republican County Chairs Oppose Sen. Toomey's Vote To Convict Trump But Disagree On Censure Resolutions,” KDKA 2 CBS Pittsburgh, Feb. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2awy5epd; “Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump, Patrick J. Toomey,” FiveThirtyEight, Jan. 13, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yw6saapw.

[2] Maria Arias, “Republican Sen. Sasse slams Nebraska GOP for ‘weird worship’ of Trump after state party rebuke,” Yahoo News, Feb. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/s26njsz2.

[3] Reid J. Epstein, “Adam Kinzinger's Lonely Mission,” The New York Times, Feb. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/f65rnny8.

[4] McKay Coppins, “The Bitter Reality of the Post-Trump GOP,” The Atlantic, Jan. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3zh77fmd.

[5] Jaclyn Peiser, “Trump called McConnell a ‘hack.’ But McConnell says he would ‘absolutely’ back him if he wins 2024 nomination,” The Washington Post, Feb. 26, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/jj48ww; Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin, “Trump Lashes His Enemies Anew as G.O.P. Dances Around His Presence,” The New York Times, April 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2kxymb33.

[6] “The Economist/YouGov Poll,” YouGov, table 67F, 2021, pp. 229-30, https://tinyurl.com/vpwr5rv9.

[7] Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman, “Trump's Future: Tons of Cash and Plenty of Options for Spending It,” The New York Times, Dec. 18, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/j6m5vd87; Marc A. Thiessen, “Opinion: A lot of Trump supporters want someone else to carry Trumpism's banner into 2024,” The Washington Post, March 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/xtc8rwnm.

[8] Karen Yourish, Larry Buchanan and Denise Lu, “The 147 Republicans Who Voted to Overturn Election Results,” The New York Times, Jan. 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/dwwz92yb; Janet Hook and David Lauter, “Divided GOP aims to define its future,” Los Angeles Times, Jan. 5, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3v7r9w59; Nancy Kaffer, “Trump is gone — but not for long,” Detroit Free Press, Jan. 24, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/28j4w8n9; Ellen McCarthy, “Anti-Trump Republican Adam Kinzinger accepts his fate, whatever it is,” The Washington Post, Jan. 27, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/zjjpmvr4; and Coppins, op. cit.

[9] Geoffrey Kabaservice, “The Future of the Republican Party,” Niskanen Center, Nov. 23, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/3cj375se; Michael Hiltzik, “A firm hold on productivity,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 15, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/3u3raajj.

[10] “Presidential Approval Ratings — Donald Trump,” Gallup, https://tinyurl.com/h7dm94xn.

[11] Erin Delmore, “This is how women voters decided the 2020 election,” NBC News, Nov. 13, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/59bpfj6y; Steven Livingston and W. Lance Bennett, “The GOP and the future of democracy in America,” The Boston Globe, Dec. 3, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/djawzn3; and Jelani Cobb, “What Is Happening to the Republicans?” The New Yorker, March 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5bt7jjhx.

[12] Mark Leibovich, “A Political Hurricane Blew Through Georgia. Now It's Bracing for More,” The New York Times, March 13, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4yrwxbaz.

[13] Thomas B. Edsall, “Democrats Are Anxious About 2022 — and 2024,” The New York Times, March 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ct3t6y5z.

[14] Paul Kane, Colby Itkowitz and Aaron Blake, “In new book, John Boehner says today's GOP is unrecognizable to traditional conservatives and dishes on his time in politics,” The Washington Post, April 9, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/46cewytz.

[15] James Downie, “Republicans are stuck with a Trump ball and chain,” The Washington Post, April 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/239358k8.

[16] Nicholas Fandos, “Spurning Calls to Resign, Liz Cheney Says G.O.P. Must Move Past Trump,” The New York Times, Feb. 7, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/e5tmeyb; Melissa Nann Burke, “‘Unforgivable’: Why Rep. Upton voted to expel Georgia's Greene from committees,” Detroit News, Feb. 5, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2hhf8hhs.

[17] Barbara Sprunt, “House Removes Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene From Her Committee Assignments,” NPR, Feb. 4, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2jpafy2b.

[18] Nick Corasaniti, Annie Karni and Isabella Grullón Paz, “‘There's Nothing Left’: Why Thousands of Republicans Are Leaving the Party,” The New York Times, Feb. 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4hrmwvf2; “Party Affiliation,” Gallup, accessed April 21, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4yy88e5x.

[19] David Weigel and Michael Scherer, “Trump rules out third party as he moves to firm up control of GOP,” The Washington Post, Feb. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/uc2wj794; Marc A. Thiessen, “A lot of Trump supporters want someone else to carry Trumpism's banner into 2024,” The Washington Post, March 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/x9a2zmfw; and Eugene Scott, “Trump says ‘most appropriate time’ to announce potential White House run is after next year's midterm elections,” The Washington Post, April 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/t6cpzmx3.

[20] Thiessen, ibid.; Gabby Birenbaum, “Trump wins CPAC straw on the 2024 presidential primary, with 55 percent support,” Vox, March 1, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ybhdkh2t.

[21] Joe Scarborough, “No amount of disaster can shake the GOP loose from Trump,” The Washington Post, Feb. 23, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/32eds8az.

[22] Alison Durkee, “Poll: Most Americans Want Trump Stopped From Holding Future Office — Except Republicans,” Forbes, Feb. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5b4rdjrb.

[23] Jill Colvin, “GOP White House hopefuls wait to see what Trump does next,” The Associated Press, Dec. 6, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/84jrnkat.

[24] Ibid.; Jess Bidgood, “Trump's refusal to concede stalls GOP reckoning over 2020 loss,” The Boston Globe, Dec. 6, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/v62vmu5c.

[25] Thiessen, op. cit.

[26] Ibid.

[27] Bernard Condon, “Trump facing devastating debt load? Experts say not so fast,” The Associated Press, Sept. 29, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/9jdz3cej; Lisa Lerer, “The Pariah Post-Presidency,” The New York Times, Jan. 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/n34n5mxk.

[28] David A. Fahrenthold et al., “Trump faces an onslaught of legal problems, as investigations and dozens of lawsuits trail him from Washington to Florida,” The Washington Post, March 18, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/48jfrhce.

[29] Ibid.; Terry Spencer, “Palm Beach considers options as Trump remains at Mar-a-Lago,” The Associated Press, Yahoo News, Jan. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3k9d5bvu.

[30] Zack Stanton, “The GOP-Big Business Divorce Goes Deeper Than You Think,” Politico, April 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/42w78mt7; Todd C. Frankel, “More than 100 corporate executives hold call to discuss halting donations and investments to fight controversial voting bills,” The Washington Post, April 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/nrfd2yvd.

[31] David Gelles, “‘We Need to Stabilize’: Big Business Breaks With Republicans,” The New York Times, Jan. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/7mm3h8e4; Alexander Coolidge, “Kroger, Cintas halt political contributions,” The (Cincinnati) Enquirer, Jan. 14, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/59wzunju.

[32] Tom Benning, “Texas firms rethink gifts,” Dallas Morning News, Jan. 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5edsnvhd.

[33] Ibid.; Thomas B. Edsall, “The Marriage Between Republicans and Big Business Is on the Rocks,” The New York Times, April 14, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/9mm95pvc.

[34] Richard Cowan, “‘Stay out of politics,’ Republican leader McConnell tells U.S. CEOs, warns of ‘consequences,’” Reuters, April 5, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3wn7tacu; Alexander Bolton, “McConnell backs away from warning businesses to stay out of politics,” The Hill, April 4, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/y4wxameh.

[35] Benning, op. cit.

[36] Chad Day and Ted Mann, “Lawmakers Who Voted Against Certifying Biden's Victory Saw Drop in Business Contributions,” The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/erx3wjtx.

[37] Gelles, op. cit.

[38] Luke Broadwater, Catie Edmonson and Rachel Shorey, “Fund-Raising Surged for Republicans Who Sought to Overturn the Election,” The New York Times, April 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/a72muwkz.

[39] Karl Evers-Hillstrom, “Lawmakers break fundraising records to kick off 2022 cycle,” Center for Responsive Politics, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/36w76ha8.

[40] Ibid.

[41] Karl Evers-Hillstrom and Krystal Hur, “Pro-impeachment Republicans outraise pro-Trump challengers,” Center for Responsive Politics, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3rhrb3ef.

[42] Broadwater, Edmondson and Shorey, op. cit.

[43] Andrea Salcedo, “Dozens of former GOP officials reportedly met last week to discuss mounting a new anti-Trump party,” The Washington Post, Feb. 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/65sxdbvj.

[44] Daniel Newhauser, “Trump voters split from the GOP to launch wannabe ‘Patriot Parties,’” Virginia Mercury, Feb. 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2btawucm; David Weigel and Michael Scherer, “Trump rules out third party as he moves to firm up control of GOP,” The Washington Post, Feb. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/uc2wj794; and Anthony Salvanto et al., “Majority favor conviction as impeachment trial begins, but many Republicans urge loyalty to Trump — CBS News poll,” CBS News, Feb. 9, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4fzz6nuz.

[45] Salcedo, op. cit.

[46] Newhauser, op. cit.; Weigel and Scherer, op. cit.

[47] Kabaservice, op. cit.; Hiltzik, op. cit.

[48] Liz Mair, “If It's Still Trump's Party, Many Republicans Like Me Will Leave,” The New York Times, Jan. 12, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/s5sbfzp.

[49] Eli Yokley, “As 2022 Campaign Begins, GOP Voters Sour on Senate Republicans,” Morning Consult, Feb. 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5xk828db.

[50] Kabaservice, op. cit.

[51] “Republican Party,” History.com, April 4, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/yjxhe29u.

[52] Brooks Jackson, “Blacks and the Democratic Party,” FactCheck.org, April 18, 2008, https://tinyurl.com/zwf2hhxx.

[53] Daphney Daniel, “How Blacks became Blue: The 1936 African American Voting Shift From the Party of Lincoln to the New Deal Coalition,” Salve Regina University, Spring 2012, https://tinyurl.com/2xdhtbsw; Jackson, ibid.; and Kimberly Belser, “The dynamic history of Black voters,” College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Dec. 9, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/49z63nb3.

[54] “The Civil Rights Act of 1964,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, https://tinyurl.com/4eu3ttmz; Taylor Branch, “How Kennedy Won the Black Vote,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 15, 1988, https://tinyurl.com/hxp9hhmw.

[55] Larry J. Sabato, “How Goldwater Changed Campaigns Forever,” Politico, Oct. 27, 2014, https://tinyurl.com/5y44ywu6; Matt Bai, “Working for the Working-Class Vote,” The New York Times, Oct. 15, 2008, https://tinyurl.com/p3rn4fxs.

[56] Chuck McCutcheon, “Future of the GOP: Can Republicans gain more minority support?” CQ Researcher, Oct. 24, 2014, https://tinyurl.com/27bjckuv; Robert G. Kaiser, “Republican Right Molds Platform in Reagan's Image,” The Washington Post, July 11, 1980, https://tinyurl.com/42uzu6ve; and Richard M. Harley, “The Evangelical Vote And The Presidency,” The Christian Science Monitor, June 25, 1980, https://tinyurl.com/vt9wnu4b.

[57] Ibid.; Kane, Itkowitz and Blake, op. cit.

[58] Presidential Elections 1789-2004 (2005), p. 162.

[59] Thomas E. Mann, “Reflections on the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election,” Brookings Institution, Jan. 1, 2001, https://tinyurl.com/rsbm44xc; Gary C. Jacobson, “The Effects of the George W. Bush Presidency on Partisan Attitudes,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, 2009, https://tinyurl.com/a4rnh5h8.

[60] “Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups,” Pew Research, March 20, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/z5accvdh.

[61] Michael Tesler, Post-Racial or Most-Racial? Race and Politics in the Obama Era (2016); Michael Tesler, “The Spillover of Racialization into Health Care: How President Obama Polarized Public Opinion by Racial Attitudes and Race,” American Journal of Political Science, 2012, https://tinyurl.com/nszpme58.

[62] “Tea Party movement,” Britannica, https://tinyurl.com/f29wna3u.

[63] Alana Abramson, “How Donald Trump Perpetuated the ‘Birther’ Movement for Years,” ABC News, Sept. 16, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/edj4jazn.

[64] Tyler Reny, Loren Collingwood and Ali Valenzuela, “Vote Switching in the 2016 Election: How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y9fmxmyf; Zack Beauchamp, “A new study reveals the real reason Obama voters switched to Trump,” Vox, Oct. 16, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/fa2w5zcw.

[65] Barack Obama, A Promised Land (2020), p. 672.

[66] Ella Lee, “Fact check: 12 of 28 comments deemed racist on viral list are Trump's direct speech,” USA Today, Oct. 30, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/pxdu2nhx.

[67] “Election 2016 Calendar: Primaries And Caucuses,” NPR, Feb. 17, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/27kp5k6e; Tom LoBianco, “Trump falsely claims ‘millions of people who voted illegally’ cost him popular vote,” CNN, Nov. 28, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/eua3r68x.

[68] “COVID Data Tracker,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/rp4fr72v; Matthew Brown, “Trump White House COVID-19 coordinator Deborah Birx says most deaths could have been avoided,” USA Today, March 29, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/japaabxr; and “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 16, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/p9fxfdcs.

[69] David L. Bahnsen, “A Final Assessment of the Trump Presidency, and the Path Forward,” National Review, Jan. 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/hxf8teyb.

[70] Glenn Kessler, Salvador Rizzo and Meg Kelly, “Trump's false or misleading claims total 30,573 over 4 years,” The Washington Post, Jan. 24, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ukvtht96.

[71] “Presidential Results,” CNN, March 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/32rsmxyd; William Cummings, Joey Garrison and Jim Sergent, “By the numbers: President Donald Trump's failed efforts to overturn the election,” USA Today, Jan. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2vmr56f7.

[72] Tom Jackman, “Police union says 140 officers injured in Capitol riot,” The Washington Post, Jan. 27, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/f5zbnpdn.

[73] Phil Boas, “Donald Trump has started a Republican civil war,” Detroit Free Press, Jan. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/crb9v4av.

[74] Sarah Lyall, “The Trump Presidency Is Now History. So How Will It Rank?” The New York Times, Jan. 23, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/7533fxvj; “Siena's 6th Presidential Expert Poll 1982-2018,” Siena College Research Institute, Feb. 13, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/3e4aedwn.

[75] Ibid.

[76] Philip Bump, “Trump: ‘Nobody's ever done a better job than I'm doing as president,’” The Washington Post, Sept. 4, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/3dwshj7b.

[77] Stephen Fowler, “Georgia Governor Signs Election Overhaul, Including Changes To Absentee Voting,” Georgia Public Broadcasting, March 26, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/a9bx2rfm.

[78] Emma Hurt, “‘A Really Good Bill’: Gov. Kemp Defends Georgia's Voting Law,” WABE, Atlanta, March 30, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/wzj7r7hu.

[79] Maegan Vazquez and Kate Sullivan, “Biden calls Georgia law ‘Jim Crow in the 21st Century’ and says Justice Department is ‘taking a look,’” CNN, March 26, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3a8uxyya.

[80] Sinéad Baker and Avery Hartmans, “Hundreds of American companies signed a new statement opposing voting-restriction laws — here's who signed and who didn't,” Business Insider, April 14, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5ae2ydt3; Hannah Denham and Jena McGregor, “HP, Dow, Under Armour among nearly 200 companies speaking out against voting law changes in Texas, other states,” The Washington Post, April 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/nym7b62w.

[81] Marianna Sotomayor and Todd C. Frankel, “Republicans ramp up attacks on corporations over Georgia voting law, threaten ‘consequences,’” The Washington Post, April 5, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ykhpw5zu.

[82] “Joint Statement from Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees,” Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Nov. 12, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/yaf3ustp.

[83] “Voting Laws Roundup: March 2021,” Brennan Center for Justice, April 1, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/m45rbyhc.

[84] Hans A. von Spakovsky, “H.R. 1 Is a Threat to American Democracy. Period,” Heritage Foundation, March 12, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4wj74b8z.

[85] Jay Riestenberg, “Should Congress pass the For the People Act or John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act? Answer: They must pass both,” Common Cause, March 26, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/tte4b3cw.

[86] Alexander Burns, “Democrats Beat Trump in 2020. Now They're Asking: What Went Wrong?” The New York Times, Feb. 20, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/samw3464; Jelani Cobb, “What Is Happening to the Republicans?” The New Yorker, March 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/5bt7jjhx; “2020 Stewardship Report,” Lincoln Project, https://tinyurl.com/5a6spsv5; and David Byler, “Republicans now enjoy unmatched power in the states,” The Washington Post, Feb. 18, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/47aw9b5prt.

[87] Michael Scherer, “New census numbers shift political power south to Republican strongholds,” The Washington Post, April 26, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4j5fxcex; Aaron Blake, Adrian Blanco and Kevin Uhrmacher, “How the 2022 Senate map is shaping up,” The Washington Post, March 9, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/47sfy29y.

[88] Mike DeBonis, “Trump inspired Republican Senate candidates create early tensions over direction of the party,” The Washington Post, March 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/7ncbz37m.

[89] “How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?” FiveThirtyEight, April 15, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/a62yywd7; Paul Kane, “The popularity of Congress is at its highest level in more than a decade as stimulus checks hit bank accounts,” The Washington Post, March 27, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/bpzyyd4d.

[90] Alayna Treene, “Exclusive: Bernie ready to roll on roads,” Axios, Feb. 24, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2tey7wec.

[91] Quint Forgey, “Biden dodges on eliminating the Senate filibuster,” Politico, March 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/k9x7x47f.

[92] Colby Itkowitz, “Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman announces he's retiring, creating an open seat in 2022,” The Washington Post, Jan. 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2pkck2jx.

[93] Kabaservice, op. cit.

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About the Author

Tom Price, a contributing writer for CQ Researcher, is a Washington-based freelance journalist who previously was a correspondent in the Cox Newspapers Washington Bureau and chief politics writer for The Dayton Daily News and The (Dayton) Journal Herald. He is author or co-author of five books including, with former U.S. Rep. Tony Hall, D-Ohio, Changing The Face of Hunger: One Man's Story of How Liberals, Conservatives, Democrats, Republicans and People of Faith Are Joining Forces to Help the Hungry, the Poor and the Oppressed. His previous CQ Researcher reports include examinations of the Electoral College, campaign finance, the 2020 census and the state of the news media.

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