New Prospects for Britain

Report Outline
Coming Decision for Electorate
Legacy of Past Economic Disorders
Future Impact of the Next Election
Special Focus

Coming Decision for Electorate

Callaghan's Scramble to Stay in Power

Although most of the British electorate believe their country has passed through the eye of the economic storm of 1974–77, the fate of Prime Minister James Callaghan's Labor government seems to rest on an economic question now in the forefront of British politics. It is whether he can continue to keep wage increases — and inflation — under control in the face of opposing pressure from the trade unions and his own party's left wing.

By adroit political maneuvering, Callaghan can probably stave off attempts to force a national election before next spring. By law the prime minister must call an election by October 1979, or five years after the last one, and he will naturally try to select the most favorable moment for Labor. Callaghan surprised the nation on Sept. 8 by saying there would be no election “at this time” — it had been a foregone conclusion in the British press that an election would be held within a matter of weeks. Political analysts have subsequently said that the prime minister's decision was determined by private polls conducted for Labor that indicated the opposition Conservative Party would probably win enough seats in the House of Commons to control Parliament and thus form a new government.

The months ahead are politically critical for Callaghan. His Labor government in July lost the support of the Liberal Party's 13 M.P.'s — members of Parliament — and was left in a minority status in the House of Commons with 312 assured votes among the body's 631. Presumably the government could be brought down at any time by a vote of no confidence if the 280 Tories in Commons could win enough allies to form a majority.