Business Conditions in Presidential Years

Report Outline
Causes of Business Uncertainty in Election Years
Relation of Politics to Business Prosperity

On November 6, 1928 the voters of the United States will choose a President for the term beginning March 4, 1929. According to general business tradition the months leading up to the election are apt to be months of uncertainty, and for the full year business activitiy is apt to run below the normal level

A recent investigation by the National Bureau of Economic Research disclosed that during the period from 1790 to 1925 the United States had experienced three years of prosperity, on an average, for each two years of depression. This is a higher average of prosperous years than has been enjoyed by any other great nation. During the last fifty years the ratio of years of prosperity to years of depression has tended to run somewhat above the three-to-two average.

During the last fifty years there have been twelve presidential elections. A summary statement of the conditions prevailing in each of these presidential years is given in the following table.