Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, seven Republican-dominated Southern states, including Texas and Georgia, are the most likely to engage in gerrymandering — the drawing of congressional maps that favor one political party over the other, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a liberal-leaning policy institute. Nine states, including New York and Virginia, are expected to draw more-balanced maps than they did after the 2010 census, due to procedural overhauls or because the state is no longer under single-party control. California, Illinois and several other states could see fights over how to improve representation for communities of color. Highest risk are states that combine single-party political control of the redistricting process with fast growth and demographic change. They also will not be required to obtain preapproval to use maps under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. High-risk states are slower growing but are under single-party control and are no longer covered by Section 5.
Source: “The Redistricting Landscape, 2021-22,” Brennan Center for Justice, Feb. 11, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/44mtxw25
Data for the graphic are as follows:
| State | Gerrymandering Risk Category |
| Alabama | High risk |
| Alaska | Not applicable |
| Arizona | State to watch |
| Arkansas | Not applicable |
| California | State to watch |
| Colorado | More balanced maps likely |
| Connecticut | Not applicable |
| Delaware | Not applicable |
| District of Columbia | Not applicable |
| Florida | Highest risk |
| Georgia | Highest risk |
| Hawaii | Not applicable |
| Idaho | Not applicable |
| Illinois | State to watch |
| Indiana | Not applicable |
| Iowa | Not applicable |
| Kansas | Not applicable |
| Kentucky | Not applicable |
| Louisiana | More balanced maps likely |
| Maine | Not applicable |
| Maryland | Not applicable |
| Massachusetts | Not applicable |
| Michigan | More balanced maps likely |
| Minnesota | Not applicable |
| Mississippi | High risk |
| Missouri | Not applicable |
| Montana | Not applicable |
| Nebraska | Not applicable |
| Nevada | Not applicable |
| New Hampshire | Not applicable |
| New Jersey | Not applicable |
| New Mexico | Not applicable |
| New York | More balanced maps likely |
| North Carolina | Highest risk |
| North Dakota | Not applicable |
| Ohio | More balanced maps likely |
| Oklahoma | Not applicable |
| Oregon | State to watch |
| Pennsylvania | More balanced maps likely |
| Rhode Island | Not applicable |
| South Carolina | High risk |
| South Dakota | Not applicable |
| Tennessee | Not applicable |
| Texas | Highest risk |
| Utah | More balanced maps likely |
| Vermont | Not applicable |
| Virginia | More balanced maps likely |
| Washington | Not applicable |
| West Virginia | Not applicable |
| Wisconsin | More balanced maps likely |
| Wyoming | Not applicable |