Crime in America

Introduction

Police divert traffic around the scene of a May 14 mass shooting in Buffalo, N.Y., one of several in the nation that weekend. Crime rates have spiked since 2020, with some blaming the pandemic and others calling out city prosecutors for not being tough enough. (AP Photo/Los Angeles Times/Kent Nishimura)

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Overview

Even before winning election as mayor of Milwaukee in April, Cavalier Johnson knew public safety was the city's biggest issue.

Milwaukee has seen a record number of homicides over the past year. In one of the city's most recent eruptions of gun violence, 21 people were injured in multiple shootings after a May 13 NBA playoff game. The incident was one of several mass shootings that occurred across the country that weekend — from a supermarket in Buffalo, N.Y., to a church in Laguna Woods, Calif.1

In the United States in 2022, mass shootings — generally defined as four or more people being shot or killed — are a more than daily occurrence. On May 24, at least 19 children and two adults were killed at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, by a teenage gunman. It was the second-worst school shooting in American history and the 27th school shooting in the country this year.2

“It's senseless, it's completely unnecessary,” Johnson said at the scene of an earlier shooting, a triple homicide, in March. “When people lose family members, a piece of them dies, too.”

People demonstrate in Los Angeles in 2020 after a Kentucky grand jury decided not to charge a Louisville police officer in the shooting death of African American Breonna Taylor. Her death and that of George Floyd in Minneapolis sparked nationwide protests and calls to cut police funding, although most police budgets have remained stable or even increased. (Getty Images/Los Angeles Times/Robert Gauthier)

There were 197 homicides in Milwaukee last year, and the city is already on track to surpass that number this year. Other cities have also broken records or are nearing totals last seen decades ago. The U.S. homicide rate increased by 30 percent in 2020 — the biggest single-year increase in more than a century — and continued to rise in 2021. In fact, 12 major U.S. cities hit their all-time highest number of homicides in 2021, including Rochester, N.Y., Baton Rouge, La., and Tucson, Ariz.3

Homicides have also risen in rural areas. Low-income communities of color in cities, however, are experiencing disproportionate numbers of killings. At the same time, distrust between police and these communities has grown, due in part to high-profile events such as the 2020 killings of African Americans George Floyd and Breonna Taylor by police officers in Minneapolis and Louisville, Ky.

“For the first time ever, gun violence was the top cause of death for children in 2020,” says Brandon del Pozo, a former police chief in Burlington, Vt., citing a recent study from the University of Michigan. “That is overwhelmingly driven by deaths in Black and Hispanic communities.”4

Although other types of crime have not increased as much, they are starting to rise as well. “Looking at data for New York City, homicides in mid-April are down by 11 percent, compared to the same period last year,” says Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri, St. Louis. “But robberies are up by 40 percent, burglaries 32 percent and larcenies 57 percent.”

Before 2020, crime had been steadily declining after hitting historic heights during the 1990s. The U.S. per capita murder rate fell by nearly half between 1993 and 2019, while other forms of crime dropped even more. Robberies, for example, dropped by two-thirds.5

But the sudden spike in homicides has made crime a bigger political concern than it has been since the 21st century began. Although many experts point to the COVID-19 pandemic as a major driver of the recent crime hike, many Republicans blame changes in policing and prosecution that have been pushed by Democrats in response to the Black Lives Matter protests that swept the country following Floyd's death.

“A left-wing messaging campaign has spent a year and a half trying to chill law enforcement and policing,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said in December. “A network of liberal district attorneys around the country are matching that rhetoric with incredibly soft-on-crime practices behind the scenes. And the predictable result of all this has been a collapse in public safety.”6

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Republicans are making crime a central talking point for this November's elections. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released in April found that the GOP had a bigger advantage over Democrats in voter trust on the issue than at any time in the last 32 years.7

“It's going to dominate, no doubt, the midterm election cycle this year,” says Nicole D. Porter, senior director of advocacy for the Sentencing Project, which works to reduce mass incarceration. “In 2022, we're seeing an uptick of crime that's going to be reflected in the electoral cycle.”

Democrats this year are worried about being seen as soft on crime. Following Floyd's murder, a number of Democrats responded by pushing policies such as eliminating cash bail and limiting the use of force by police.

On May 25 — the second anniversary of Floyd's death — President Biden issued an executive order seeking to restrict techniques such as chokeholds, while creating a national registry of officers who have been fired for misconduct. The order did not go as far in terms of holding police accountable as a bill stalled in Congress — or a draft order the administration considered earlier this year.8

Some progressives encapsulated their demands for more sweeping reforms with the slogan “defund the police.”

But many Democratic leaders are convinced that the slogan hurt the party in 2020 and could do worse damage this year. “We should all agree: The answer is not to defund the police,” Biden said during his State of the Union address in March. “The answer is to fund the police … with the resources and training they need to protect our communities.”9

President Donald Trump signs the bipartisan First Step Act in 2018 to provide funding for prison rehabilitation programs and soften some federal sentencing guidelines. (Getty Images/The Washington Post/Jabin Botsford)

The shift in rhetoric from both sides of the aisle represents a turnabout from recent years, when criminal justice reform to reduce the rate of incarceration was one of the nation's few bipartisan issues. The two parties sometimes had different priorities, but managed to work together on legislation at both the state and federal levels. In 2018, for example, Republican President Donald Trump signed the First Step Act, a bipartisan measure that provided funding for prison rehabilitation programs and softened some federal sentencing guidelines.10

The current atmosphere has supporters of criminal justice reform efforts nervous about whether policy gains over the past decade might stall or be rolled back. “Criminal justice has enjoyed a 15-year period of détente and cooperation, and that is clearly now under threat or in jeopardy,” says Adam Gelb, president of the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington.

While Republicans sense a great advantage in returning to tough-on-crime messages that have worked in the past, the country is not in the same place that it was during the 1980s and 1990s, Gelb says. He maintains that there is support for policies that are not strictly draconian, some of which have been shown to drive down corrections costs without jeopardizing safety.

Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. (Mayor of Milwaukee Twitter/Screenshot)

Johnson, the new Milwaukee mayor, is one of many local officials navigating this shifting ground. His city is not only experiencing record homicides, but alarming numbers of auto thefts. During his campaign, Johnson repeatedly touted his success in persuading his colleagues on the city's Common Council to accept federal funding to hire 26 more police officers — money that had initially been rejected in the aftermath of Floyd's murder.11

But he also wants the city to find other ways to improve public safety beyond just hiring more cops, including investing in violence prevention, road improvements and other community programs such as having civilians do some of the work now handled by police. “In Milwaukee, we never took up the mantle of defunding the police,” Johnson says.12

As policymakers consider ways of responding to rising crime rates, here are some of the questions politicians, public safety officials, community leaders and citizens are asking:

Did the pandemic cause the crime wave?

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous social indicators have moved in the wrong direction. Suicides, drug overdoses and traffic fatalities have all increased, while school enrollment has plummeted. Many criminologists also believe the pandemic drove up some categories of crime.

The pandemic exacerbated many long-standing societal ills, including social divisions, economic inequality and racism, says Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research & Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York City. “It's not that the whole society fell apart,” he says, “It's just that there are enough people who were already living on the edge, and this pushed them off of it.”

Many of the communities that have been hit hardest by increasing crime — often Black and Hispanic communities in major cities — bore not only high rates of unemployment early in the pandemic but also saw a disproportionate number of cases and deaths from COVID-19.13

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“Obviously, it undermined the economy and security in communities that are most vulnerable,” says Nicholas Turner, president of the Vera Institute of Justice, a nonprofit that advocates policies to combat mass incarceration. “It led to the closing of services and the support systems that are often a bulwark against criminal activity, whether it's after-school programs or violence prevention programs.”

The explosion of gun ownership during the pandemic has not helped matters. Americans bought 4.3 million more guns than usual during the first five months of the pandemic alone, according to a study from the University of California, Davis. The American Medical Association found that there was a 28.4 percent increase in firearm-related deaths, and a 34.3 percent increase in nonfatal gunshot injuries during the first year of the pandemic.14

“With COVID in particular, we saw this run on guns, and we do have a greater supply,” says Charles Katz, director of the Arizona State University Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety. “This is not to take away from anyone's constitutional rights, but when you have an increase in guns in society, we're just going to have greater chances for gun-related violence to take place.”

Although Rosenfeld agrees that the pandemic contributed to the spike in homicides, he says the number of killings really began to rise not at the start of the pandemic in March 2020, but just after Floyd's murder on May 25, 2020, which triggered the nationwide protests. “There's at least a relationship in time between the abrupt rise in violence and the police protests that we saw throughout the summer,” he says.

Those protests led to police officers feeling hamstrung and often demoralized, says Zack Smith, a legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. A number of cities and states pursued policies after the protests that Smith and other critics say have undermined law enforcement.

“Not only have the police been defunded in some places, they've been demonized and face a more difficult environment to do their jobs,” Smith says. “There's a problem of recruiting and retention right now. I think it's a cop-out, no pun intended, to blame COVID for the problems we've seen.”

COVID-19 took its toll on police themselves. Last year, 301 officers died from the virus, making it the leading cause of death for police in what was the deadliest year for law enforcement in nearly a century. Having officers out sick and isolated, lessening the number of officers on duty, and trying to maintain social distancing obviously reduced their effectiveness, Rosenfeld suggests. In addition, numerous states released thousands of prisoners early, in hopes of relieving prison overcrowding and the spread of COVID-19.15

New York City police officers patrol the Times Square subway station in May 2020. COVID-19 was the leading cause of death for police in 2021, the deadliest year for police in nearly a century. (Getty Images/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez)

“Obviously, there have been absences in terms of police departments and courts being closed,” says Marc Levin, chief policy counsel for the Council on Criminal Justice. “In many places, the justice system ground to a halt.”

Gelb, the council president, says a number of factors have converged to make crime worse. The pandemic not only increased isolation and stress but led to the closure of numerous support systems — everything from social services and drug treatment programs to churches and schools. “The guardrails there have been on behavior have somehow started to fall away,” he says.

But he argues the erosion of trust between communities and police is also a key element. “Communities became less trusting, and there was less cooperation with police, while the police who feared being the next person caught on video doing something wrong pulled back from communities,” Gelb says. “It kind of went both directions when it comes to proactive crime prevention and enforcement and the much bigger foundational issue of community trust.”

Do progressive prosecutors make crime worse?

Like other cities, San Francisco has seen crime rates go up. The number of murders has increased over the past couple of years, although not as dramatically as some other major U.S. cities. San Francisco has also suffered from large numbers of auto thefts and high-profile incidents of vandalism and retail theft.16

Anger over rising crime has focused on the city's district attorney, Chesa Boudin, who faces a recall election on June 7. When he took office, Boudin pledged a range of public safety changes, including to prosecute abuses by police more aggressively, not to try juveniles as adults and not prosecute infractions associated with homelessness such as public urination and trespassing. Polls indicate that there is strong voter support to recall Boudin.17

San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, seen here May 10, faces a recall election because of rising crime in that city that many blame on reforms he has championed. However, data show crime also has risen in areas that do not have reform-minded prosecutors. (Getty Images/Justin Sullivan)

Boudin is not the only prosecutor facing public discontent. Signature gathering to recall Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón, who has pursued similar polices, is also well underway. “The crime rate of course is going to increase when you're not doing the basic blocking and tackling of prosecuting crimes,” says Smith of the Heritage Foundation. “It creates a culture of lawlessness in many of these cities, and the result is what we're seeing, an increase in crime.”

Boudin has said that he took office just before the pandemic — keeping him and his employees out of the office for a period. He contends that reducing violence depends on support services for individuals who are homeless, among others, and defends his record on prosecuting serious crimes. “I'm proud of the fact that in my two years in office we've increased our charging rate for sexual assault, we've increased our conviction rate for homicide cases and we filed more than 10,000 new criminal cases,” Boudin told supporters in March.18

Traditionally, U.S. prosecutors tended to have tunnel vision, seeing their job strictly as putting away as many criminals as possible. Things began to shift about a decade ago, when a few district attorneys set up post-conviction integrity units, which looked at old cases to see if defendants had been wrongly tried.

Over the past few years, a large cohort of prosecutors who favor criminal justice reform has won office, looking for policies that might reduce levels of incarceration. Counties that include Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Denver and Philadelphia, among others, have elected prosecutors who have pledged new policies, such as not pursuing the death penalty or not prosecuting low-level drug offenses. (District attorneys and other prosecutors are mostly elected at the county level.) Many were elected with significant financial support from liberal billionaire George Soros, a long-time backer of criminal justice reform.19

Critics say that they act less like prosecutors and more like public defenders. Mark Gonzalez, who was elected district attorney in 2016 in Nueces County, Texas, which includes Corpus Christi, has the words “not guilty” tattooed across his chest.20

“We need to get rid of the foolish notion that you can simply not enforce large portions of the law and not have it affect the community and crime overall,” says Kent Scheidegger, legal director of the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, a conservative public interest law firm in Sacramento, Calif. “You can't tell people we're not going to prosecute you if we have thefts and not have thefts go up.”

Boudin and Gascón were elected in 2019 and 2020, meaning their tenures have indeed coincided with increases in crime. But these increases have also occurred nationwide. Murders are actually more prevalent in states where the majority voted for Donald Trump than in those that supported Joe Biden in 2020. A report from the center-left think tank Third Way found that Trump states had a 40 percent higher per capita murder rate in 2020 than Biden states.21

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Crime has also shot up in cities that are home to prosecutors who take a more traditional tough-on-crime approach, such as Memphis, Tenn., Oakland, Calif., and Sacramento. According to John Pfaff, a law professor at Fordham University, the rise in murder rates between 2019 and 2020 was essentially uniform among 69 large U.S. jurisdictions. “There is no evidence that cities with more progressive prosecutors experienced relatively worse outcomes than those with more conventional district attorneys,” he wrote.22

“I use the examples of Lubbock, Texas, and Anchorage, Alaska, as two places where crime has gone up, and there's no progressive prosecutor and there's no bail reform,” says Vera's Turner. “It's really an attempt by opponents of reform to leverage the increase in crime and the fear that has generated and to blame the wrong thing.”

Boudin's troubles aside, most progressive prosecutors have won re-election after their first terms. That includes Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who has perhaps the highest national profile among them. Krasner has become a lightning rod for criticism, given the city's high murder rate. Caterina Roman, a criminal justice professor at Temple University, notes that Krasner has shifted some of his approaches in response to rising crime, including whether to ask for cash bail.23

“He's been so much under the microscope,” she says. “He's showing the data as much as he can that a lot of things that are happening are not in response to his policies.”

Should some police functions be handled by others?

Just after the murder of George Floyd in 2020, the city of Denver decided to experiment with a program that would have unarmed mental health professionals respond to some 911 calls. The program, known as Support Team Assisted Response, or STAR, began with a two-person team traveling the city in a white van. They have responded to 2,700 calls without once requiring police backup. What began as a $200,000 pilot program now has a nearly $4 million budget, with a planned expansion to six vans.24

“STAR is an example of a program that has worked for those it has had contact with,” said Denver City Council member Robin Kniech. “It is minimizing unnecessary arrests and unnecessary costs — whether that be jail costs or emergency room costs. It has done so for less than 1 percent of the calls coming into the city that it might be eligible for.”25

Other cities have also been experimenting with alternative approaches to public safety, such as having social workers, mental health professionals and drug addiction counselors respond to emergency calls either alongside or instead of uniformed police officers. “It's a significant change to the way we think about emergency response,” says Jeremy Travis, executive vice president of Arnold Ventures, a foundation that funds criminal justice research.

More than 30 years ago, Eugene, Ore., created a crisis intervention program, known as Crisis Assistance Helping Out On The Streets (CAHOOTS), to have mental health professionals respond instead of police to some emergency calls. Many cities have launched similar programs over the past couple of years, including Albuquerque, N.M., Austin, Texas, Indianapolis, Oakland and St. Louis.26 (See Pro/Con.)

Although the slogan “defund the police” has become politically divisive, one of the basic ideas underpinning it — that other types of qualified agencies should respond to certain situations — still has considerable traction. “If you look at what's coming out of the White House, Joe Biden is saying fund the police, but he's also saying fund community-based violence prevention programs,” Turner says. “New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis and Washington have all used [federal] funds to invest in community violence prevention programs.”

Proponents see two main advantages: One is that police, as generalists, are not trained to respond to every type of domestic or mental health crisis. Having others carry part of the load should free officers up to respond when and where they are really needed, such as violent situations, Travis says.

Cherelle Parker, a City Council member in Philadelphia, agrees, saying: “We're not asking police officers to become psychiatrists, psychologists and therapists — we can get those who are experts in those areas to address those issues. When mental and behavioral health is needed, we now have another vehicle that we can use.”

The other purported advantage is that limiting interactions with uniformed personnel reduces the chances for encounters to turn deadly. In 2020, for example, Walter Wallace Jr., a Black man armed with a knife, was fatally shot by two Philadelphia police officers. Wallace had a history of mental illness and received mental health treatment days earlier. Last year, the city paid his family $2.5 million to settle a wrongful death suit.27

Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell is exploring the idea of creating a third public safety department, after fire and police, to address issues such as drug addiction and homelessness. “If somebody was having a heart attack, and you called 911, you wouldn't expect a gun and badge response, right? You would expect them to bring you an EMT,” said Senior Deputy Mayor Monisha Harrell (who is the mayor's niece). “That's the way this additional department would likely work, is, ‘What are those things in which a gun and badge response isn't appropriate?’”28

Police chiefs generally do not object to assistance from professionals in other fields, but they warn against cutting officers out of the equation entirely. When an emergency call comes in, it is often difficult to determine over the phone whether a situation has the potential to turn violent. “If you talk to officers, some of the most dangerous situations involve mental health and domestic disputes,” says Heritage's Smith. “In some instances, it can be very dangerous, not only for community members, but the professionals on the street.”

Critics of the alternative safety approach also note that most of the local efforts are new and generally small-scale. There is not yet evidence that these programs have prevented situations from turning violent if police had been involved, says del Pozo, a former Burlington police chief.

“There's selection bias in a lot of these analyses,” he says. “You assiduously pick calls for service that have no indication for violence and say we never needed the police for those. You're leaving out the calls where there's a threat of violence or uncertainty.”

Del Pozo adds that police have facilities and communications capabilities spread throughout every city — something social service agencies lack. Having those agencies collaborate closely with police would be beneficial, he says, but too often their work is framed politically as a corrective to police abuses.

“The idea that public health needs to be a substitute for policing is a dangerous misconception,” del Pozo says. “If the police felt like this was meant to complement and enhance their work, rather than be taken as a signal to degrade their institutions or attack them, my sense is they would be more supportive.”

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Background

Early Law Enforcement

In the United States, government is solely responsible for punishing crimes such as homicide, assault, rape and robbery. This has not always been the model. For most of human history, from ancient Greece to monarchical Europe, retaliation by wronged parties was the norm. The American colonies were innovators in developing the function of public prosecution.29

Americans borrowed the office of sheriff from the British, whose kings appointed a “shire reeve” as their representative in each shire or county. Today's sheriffs are generally elected independently, providing law enforcement at the county level. At the municipal level, police departments and their top officials typically answer to mayors or other local officials.30

British Home Secretary Robert Peel established London's Metropolitan Police Service, whose officers became known as “bobbies” as a result of Peel's role. In this idealized 1864 illustration, an officer comes to the aid of two children. (Getty Images/Hulton Archive)

In 1829, British Home Secretary Robert Peel established the Metropolitan Police Service in London, creating a recognizable modern police force with uniforms and a chain of command. (British officers are still known as “bobbies” in his honor.) The model was soon adopted by U.S. cities such as Boston, New York and Philadelphia.31

U.S. policing also has its roots in the South's slave patrols that were prevalent during the era when slavery existed. “Members of slave patrols could forcefully enter anyone's home, regardless of their race or ethnicity, based on suspicions that they were sheltering people who had escaped bondage,” wrote Connie Hassett-Walker, a criminal justice professor at Norwich University in Northfield, Vt.32

Incarceration, meanwhile, was reserved for white citizens, while the white majority in turn viewed enslaved Black people as lacking souls that could be improved through such punishment. Instead, enslaved people accused of criminal violations were tortured, mutilated or killed, with few escaping the whip.33

Incarceration rates started to rise, however, after the adoption of the 13th Amendment in 1865, which outlawed slavery. African Americans were frequently imprisoned for newly minted offenses such as breaking curfew or loitering in the Jim Crow South.34

Prohibition — the ban on alcohol manufacture and sales that took effect in 1920 — spurred the growth of organized crime as Americans turned to bootleg suppliers. Still, from the 1920s — when national prison statistics were first collected — into the 1970s, incarceration rates stayed within a relatively narrow range of 79 to 137 individuals out of every 100,000 residents in jail or prison.35

Tough-on-Crime Era

Crime began to rise during the 1960s, a historically turbulent decade, and kept rising for decades afterward:

• From 1960 to 1989, U.S. crime rates rose from 1,887 offenses per 100,000 population nationwide to 5,741.36

• In 1965, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson declared a “war against crime,” introducing legislation that created a federal role in policing, court systems and state prisons for the first time. (The vast majority of incarceration still takes place in local jails and state prisons, not federal penitentiaries.)37

• With passage of the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act in 1968, federal spending on crime began to grow exponentially, from $10 million in 1965 to $850 million by 1993, funding hundreds of local crime control programs.38

Campus protests, urban riots and street crime set the stage for Republican Richard Nixon to run for president in 1968 on the themes of “law and order” and opposition to “Negro socio-economic revolution syndrome,” as one of his campaign memos put it. During his first six months in the White House, Nixon developed 20 law enforcement bills, increasing police patrol and surveillance programs. In 1971, Nixon expanded his public safety focus and declared a “war on drugs,” calling drug abuse “America's public enemy No. 1.”39

John Ehrlichman, who was a top Nixon domestic policy aide, admitted in a 1994 interview that the drug war was at least partially motivated by politics. “We knew we couldn't make it illegal to be either against the war [in Vietnam] or Black, but by getting the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and Blacks with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could disrupt those communities,” Ehrlichman said. “Did we know we were lying about the drugs? Of course we did.”40

Narcotics police arrest people in 1994 in Bridgeport, Conn. President Bill Clinton signed a crime bill that year that encouraged police to make more drug arrests, stiffened drug-related penalties and increased prison sentences. (Getty Images/Corbis News/Andrew Lichtenstein)

Drug use did truly spike, however, in the 1980s and 1990s with the advent of a highly addictive form of cocaine known as crack. Crack dealing and use were associated with a number of social ills, including doubling the homicide rate for young Black men between 1984 and 1994.41

During the 1980s, Republican President Ronald Reagan's administration and Congress responded with a series of policy changes:

• Increasing criminal penalties for crack.

• Authorizing the use of defense agencies in drug control.

• Imposing mandatory prison terms, not only for drug offenses, but use of firearms in commissions of crime.42

• Working with Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill — following the fatal overdose of college basketball star Len Bias in 1985 — to enact the Anti-Drug Abuse Act, which established mandatory minimum sentences for distributing crack cocaine that were 100 times as punitive as those for powder cocaine.43

The desire of Democrats to join Republicans such as Nixon and Reagan in tough-on-crime stances was perhaps most dramatically symbolized by Bill Clinton's decision in 1992, when he was still governor of Arkansas, to leave the presidential campaign trail just a few weeks before the Iowa caucuses to preside over the execution of convicted murderer Ricky Ray Rector. Rector was severely mentally impaired after a self-inflicted gunshot to the head — so much so that he set aside some of his last meal “for later.”44

As president, Clinton signed a massive crime bill in 1994 that, among other things, directed funding to localities so they could put 100,000 new cops on the streets and made 60 additional crimes punishable by the death penalty. The bill also stiffened federal sentences and encouraged local police to make more drug arrests. Its lead sponsor in the Senate was Biden, then a senator from Delaware.45

States also took steps to stiffen penalties, increasing mandatory minimum sentences and passing “truth in sentencing” laws that required prisoners, for example, to serve 85 percent of their original sentences, as opposed to earning time off toward early release. Numerous states adopted three strikes laws, which required lengthy or life sentences for any third offenses, no matter how minor.46

Some police departments adopted the “broken windows” theory of policing — the belief that minor offenses have to be dealt with in order to prevent community decay and escalation toward worse offenses. As a result, misdemeanor arrests rose dramatically in New York City during the 1990s, with the police convinced that individuals were less likely to carry guns if they were likely to interact with law enforcement authorities. The New York Police Department pursued an aggressive “stop and frisk” policy, in which officers stopped pedestrians with minimal pretexts to search them for weapons or illegal possessions. As a result, the number of police encounters rose from 97,296 in 2002 to 685,724 in 2011, with 87 percent of them involving Black and Latino citizens. Of those stops, 12 percent resulted in convictions. The policy was ruled unconstitutional in 2013 by a federal judge.47

Across the country, the number of prosecutors — who have professional and political incentives for charging individuals — increased by 50 percent from 1990 to 2007. “The primary driver of incarceration is increased prosecutorial toughness when it comes to charging people, not longer sentences,” wrote Pfaff, the Fordham law professor.48

Bipartisan Reforms

As Pfaff notes, the number of prosecutors increased as crime was declining. In fact, the national crime rate had already crested by the time Congress passed the 1994 crime bill. The violent crime rate peaked in 1991 at 716 per 100,000 population. By 2015, it was about half that at 366 per 100,000, according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. The decline has been both consistent and dramatic, despite a few blips along the way. Although polls show that public perceptions of crime do not always track the actual numbers exactly, crime began to lose its salience as a political issue.49

The number of inmates rose exponentially, with the prison population increasing 800 percent from 1970 to 2008. The numbers grew especially high for Black and Hispanic men. Many Americans became concerned about the financial and societal costs of mass incarceration. The media frequently reported that the United States had at times the highest incarceration rate in the world — 5 percent of the global population, but 25 percent of the world's prison population.50

Progressives grew concerned about the impact both on individual lives and entire communities. One 1997 study found that Black men faced a 1 in 4 chance of going to prison at some point in their lives, compared with less than 1 in 6 among Hispanics and 1 in 23 among white men. “For certain men — Black men without a high school degree — imprisonment is modal in statistical terms,” wrote Tracey Meares, a Yale University law professor. “In everyday language, it is normal.”51

The Pew Charitable Trusts found in 2008 that “for the first time, more than 1 in every 100 adults is now confined in an American jail or prison.” That number and concept — which appeared on the front pages of newspapers across the country — convinced many Americans that the nation was putting too many people behind bars.52

Some experts argued that the high level of imprisonment was part of a larger systemic problem. The New Jim Crow, a 2010 book by attorney and author Michelle Alexander, laid out an influential case that mass incarceration and the war on drugs were products of a racial caste system.53

Tough sentencing laws and efforts to crack down on drug-related crimes caused prison populations to soar and prompted a scramble by states to spend billions to build more correctional facilities. Many, such as the Nebraska State Penitentiary, seen here in 2020, faced orders to reduce overcrowding. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

But there was another concern, one that drew the attention of conservatives to criminal justice reform. The costs of incarcerating so many individuals had soared. From 1988 to 2009, annual state spending on prisons increased from $12 billion to $52 billion. Some states were spending more on corrections than higher education.54

Texas state Rep. Jerry Madden says that in 2005, Republican Texas House Speaker Tom Craddick told him he would be the chair of the House Corrections Committee and advised him: “Don't build new prisons, they cost too much.”

Like other states, Texas had been on a prison-building spree; its prison population doubled over the past dozen years. In 2007, the Texas Department of Criminal Justice asked legislators for an additional $523 million to build three more prisons. Madden, along with Democratic state Sen. John Whitmire, persuaded colleagues it would be a better investment to spend roughly half that amount, or $241 million, on treatment, mental health and rehabilitation instead.55

The idea of spending money on rehabilitation programs of any kind had become a political nonstarter by the 1990s. However, most prisoners are eventually released, and too many of them return to prison, filling beds and costing money. U.S. recidivism rates — the number of people who commit new offenses or re-offend and get sent back to prison within five years of release — are roughly 50 percent. States can save huge amounts of money by cutting down on that percentage. Since the ultimate goal of drug treatment, employment programs and other social programs is to prevent the same people from committing more crimes, the result is that public safety is enhanced.56

“Certainly, prisoners should be punished for their crimes, but if you reduce recidivism rates, you reduce incarceration rates and, ultimately, make communities safer,” says Ronald J. Lampard, senior director of the criminal justice task force for the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a conservative organization that brings state legislators together with private sector business leaders to craft policy.

Among other things, the Texas legislation expanded an existing drug treatment program, cutting the wait time from a year to four months. That change took two-thirds of the people — or a thousand prisoners — off the program waiting list and into treatment and then released. Simply being able to treat and release prisoners earlier, rather than having them waiting around in prison beds for an opening, saved the state $35,000 a head, Madden says: “We were just as safe as if they waited eight more months.” Two years after the bill passed, Texas added only 529 new prisoners, a tenth of what had been projected. The total prison population in Texas fell, despite continued population growth.57

Texas' success helped convince conservative legislators in other states that providing treatment for prisoners was not some bleeding-heart proposal. Instead, it was a redirection of government funds away from a strictly punitive approach. “It was a tremendous stroke of luck for the country that Texas was the first to step out of the gate,” says Gelb, of the Council on Criminal Justice. “Nobody thinks Texas is going to do something that's soft on crime.”

Dozens of states followed Texas' lead, with some of the most ambitious overhauls taking place in red states such as Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Prison reform was championed by prominent conservatives, such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, who were eager to save money. It was also embraced by some prominent religious conservatives who believe in redemption.58

“While America's justice system is far from perfect, it's among the best in the world,” says Tim Head, executive director of the conservative Faith & Freedom Coalition. “It has the potential to be the model or template for other countries.”

The Federal Response

Success in the states convinced some federal policymakers that criminal justice reform was a cause worth considering. As governor of Texas during the 1990s, Republican George W. Bush had been a classic tough-on-crime politician, but as president he endorsed the idea of giving ex-offenders a fresh start. “America is the land of second chances, and when the gates of the prison open, the path ahead should lead to a better life,” he said during his 2004 State of the Union address.59

Bush later signed the Second Chance Act of 2008, which created a grant program for state and local governments and nonprofits that help offenders re-enter society and avoid further criminality through programs such as mental health counseling, housing assistance and substance abuse treatment.60

Democratic President Barack Obama made some changes to crime and prison practices through executive action, including aggressive investigation of abuses local police departments and a record number of clemencies. Legislation stalled in Congress during his tenure, however, due to opposition from some Republican senators who said Obama's proposals would allow violent criminals out of prison too early. The idea of pursuing prison reform then received a boost from a surprising champion: Donald Trump.61

Trump's public safety rhetoric on the presidential campaign trail was a throwback to the tough-on-crime talk of the 1990s. He vowed in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in 2016, for example, to “liberate our citizens” from “the crime and violence that today afflicts our nation.” In 2019, Trump refused to apologize for running full-page newspaper advertisements 30 years earlier calling for the death penalty for the so-called Central Park Five, a group of Black and Latino teenagers who were convicted in a notorious New York City rape case but later exonerated.62

But Trump proved open to the idea of prison reform, which was pushed heavily by his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, whose father had served time in prison on federal tax and witness tampering charges. Kushner worked closely not just with conservative advocates, but Democrats who were otherwise ideological enemies. The result was the First Step Act of 2018, which authorized the Federal Bureau of Prisons to spend $50 million annually on education, job training and drug treatment programs. It relaxed some mandatory minimum sentences and allowed “three strikes” offenders to receive 25 years rather than life in prison. It also moved crack sentencing guidelines closer to those for powder cocaine.63

Most opposition to the bill came from liberal Democrats who complained it did not go far enough. “To reform America's prisons, we must change the laws that send people to them in the first place,” wrote Eric Holder, who served as attorney general under Obama. “Anything less represents a failure of leadership.”64

The shifting political views on criminal justice were reflected in complaints directed toward Democratic presidential candidates in 2020 for their past positions. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was put on the defensive about his support for stop-and-frisk policies, while California Sen. Kamala Harris was criticized for her career as a state and local prosecutor. During one presidential debate during the general election campaign, Trump criticized Biden for his sponsorship of the 1994 crime bill, “which put tens of thousands of Black men, mostly, in jail.”65

Police Killings Spark Changes

A number of high-profile police killings over the past decade, some caught on video and posted on social media, altered the tone of the criminal justice debate. The killing of Michael Brown, an unarmed Black teenager, by a white officer in Ferguson, Mo., in 2014 triggered nationwide protests and strengthened the nascent Black Lives Matter movement. In 2015 and 2016, 34 states enacted 79 laws addressing policing, according to the Vera Institute of Justice.66

The massive national and global protest movement triggered by the George Floyd murder led to substantive policy changes in a number of states. On the last day of 2020, for example, Republican Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts signed a sweeping bill to ban racial profiling, police chokeholds, the use of tear gas during large demonstrations and no-knock warrants when children or seniors are at the home. (No-knock warrants allow officers to enter into a home or other premises without offering warning or identifying themselves.) The law also put a civilian-led commission in charge of police standards and training. Other states, including California, Colorado and Illinois, embraced similar lists of police policy changes.67

But some measures proved politically unpalatable, such as changes to qualified immunity, a legal doctrine that shields officers from civil liability for their actions in most cases. While there is still bipartisan support for what are sometimes called “back-end policies” — dealing with convicts while they are in prison or leaving the system — changes at the front end to policing and sentencing have been a much tougher sell, particularly given the rise in crime over the past couple of years.

“There's no appetite in the mainstream of the Democratic Party, much less in the Republican Party, for any significant new oversight or accountability measures for policing,” says Alex Vitale, a sociology professor and coordinator of the Policing & Social Justice Project at Brooklyn College. “Those types of reforms have proven to be dead in the water.”

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Current Situation

Rethinking Reforms

Fresh examples of criminals perpetrating serious crimes soon after being released are rarely lacking. One example is Darrell Brooks Jr., who was charged with five counts of homicide after allegedly driving his car intentionally into a parade crowd in Waukesha, Wis., last November. He had just been released on bail after having allegedly run over a woman. The district attorney said in retrospect the $1,000 bond Brooks had posted was “inappropriately low” in light of the later incident.68

“What happens when you release more people onto the streets, and you don't prosecute?” asks Smith of the Heritage Foundation. “It creates a culture of lawlessness in many of these cities, and the result is what we're seeing, an increase in crime.”

In response to the recent crime wave, some states are reconsidering previous criminal justice reform efforts. Last month, the Tennessee General Assembly passed a so-called truth in sentencing bill, which would require prisoners convicted of certain felonies to serve out their full terms, without possibility of parole. Critics of the bill say it would take away incentives for prisoners to earn release through good behavior. Republican Gov. Bill Lee criticized the bill but declined to veto or sign it, which means it automatically becomes law on July 1.69

In April, New York lawmakers toughened bail requirements for some offenders, scaling back a 2019 law that barred judges from considering the potential future dangers defendants posed when determining bail, except for flight risk. Now, judges can weigh factors such as gun ownership, gun crimes and violations of protective orders. In Ohio, voters might consider a ballot measure this November to allow public safety to be taken into account as a factor when setting bail, a change that would reverse a state Supreme Court ruling.70

Opponents of cash bail say the practice is discriminatory: It forces indigent defendants to spend sometimes lengthy amounts of time in jail before being tried because they cannot afford to post bond. They dispute the idea that barring cash bail or blocking judges from considering whether defendants pose a danger leads to increases in crime. Still, they recognize that the pushback against recent changes in bail procedures is indicative of the way the political winds are now blowing.

“Reform is much easier to think about, talk about and vote on when crime is low, or crime is going down,” says Christopher Herrmann, an assistant professor of law and police science at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “Here we are with almost all crime going up for several years now. There have been many high-profile incidents that stoke a lot of fear and anger in the public.”

Public concern about crime is at its highest level since 2016, according to Gallup polling released last month, with 53 percent of Americans saying they worry “a great deal” about U.S. violence and crime.71

A man in Bloomington, Ind., waves a pro-police sign during an August 2020 “Defend the Police” event to counter calls to cut police budgets in the wake of the murder of George Floyd and others killed by law enforcement. (Getty Images/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Jeremy Hogan)

A number of states have also recently passed “back the blue” legislation meant to support the police. A year after signing a bill that banned most chokeholds and included other police accountability measures, Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds signed a bill last year to offer police greater legal protections, while also increasing penalties against protesters. Georgia and Kentucky, meanwhile, are considering legislation this year to exempt law enforcement officers from state income taxes.72

The pressure to hold police more accountable for their actions appears to have lessened since 2020. In April, newly elected Virginia Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares ended the effort to prosecute two officers who shot and killed an unarmed motorist in 2017. Meanwhile, states including Florida, Georgia and Texas have passed legislation to block local governments from cutting police budgets. Running for re-election this year, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott tweeted, “I signed a law that defunds cities that defund police.”73

Federal Action

Momentum has also slowed at the federal level. Chances to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act appear to have died last fall when negotiations in the U.S. Senate fell apart over the issue of qualified immunity for policing. The House had passed a version of the bill in March 2021 that would have banned chokeholds, racial profiling and no-knock warrants in drug cases, limited the transfer of military-grade equipment to police forces and made it easier to prosecute police officers.74

The very name of the First Step Act, signed by Trump in 2018, suggested that it would be followed by further changes to prison and sentencing policy, but that has proven to be a tough sell in today's environment. The GOP's election year messaging on crime has “dampened the interest in doing what we call the Second Step Act, but we're still seeing what can be worked out,” said Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee.75

Still, the most recent appropriations package passed by Congress in April included $409.5 million to fund First Step Act programs, including drug treatment. It also funded other reform-minded proposals, including $115 million for programs authorized by the 2008 Second Chance Act, including job training, education and housing.76

Last September, the House passed the Equal Act, which would end disparities in federal sentencing guidelines between crack and powder cocaine. The bill has bipartisan support in the Senate, although its passage is not assured. The Senate may also consider legislation to require conflict de-escalation training for law enforcement officers.77

There is also potential congressional interest in record-sealing legislation, which would allow records of low-level offenders to be expunged after a certain period. The goal is to make it easier for former convicts to get housing and jobs by not having to check a box on application forms admitting past convictions. “Individuals who have served their time shouldn't have to face barriers when they're trying to rebuild their lives,” said Illinois Republican Rep. Rodney Davis.78

Although so-called Clean Slate bills have been proposed on a bipartisan basis at the federal level, none have passed yet. However, at least 20 states have passed or expanded Clean Slate laws since 2020.79

Advocates for changing approaches to public safety are generally more hopeful about achieving further results in the states, rather than at the federal level. Some note that, along with attempting to pass new legislation, it remains important to guard against rollbacks, as happened in New York with bail. “This work is always twofold, in getting the win and protecting the win,” says DeRay Mckesson, cofounder of Campaign Zero, an advocacy group working to curb police violence. “The rising rate of crime is the biggest thing we face right now.”

Travis, the Arnold Ventures vice president, says: “We have a setback in terms of momentum for criminal justice reform, but having been through the tough-on-crime era, it's nothing like what we saw in the 1980s and 1990s.”

Supplementing the Police

Local governments continue to look for ways to curb potential citizen harassment by police. Last fall, Philadelphia became the first major U.S. city to block police from stopping drivers for minor traffic offenses, such as broken taillights. Police have used what are known as pretextual stops to allow them to search vehicles for illegal drugs or weapons. The Philadelphia measure was intended to curb the frequency of African Americans being targeted for “driving while Black,” with one study finding that Black drivers accounted for 72 percent of traffic stops in the city, compared with 15 percent involving white drivers.80

Pittsburgh has since followed with similar legislation. In addition, prosecutors in Ramsey County, Minn., Ingham County, Mich., and Chittenden County, Vt., have all announced they will not pursue felony cases that grow out of traffic stops for minor violations.81

However, most mayors and other local officials are looking for ways to hire more officers or find other ways to support the police. Cities that cut funding for police departments following Floyd's murder, including Los Angeles and New York, have restored or increased funding in the face of rising homicide rates. The same is true in Minneapolis, where Floyd was killed — and where voters rejected a ballot measure last November that would have closed the police department in favor of a community health-centered public safety department.82

Few cities exemplify the political crosscurrents swirling around public safety more than Austin in Texas. In 2020, voters in Travis County, which includes Austin, elected former public defender José Garza as district attorney on a platform that included abolishing cash bail, holding police accountable for on-duty violence and avoiding prosecution of low-level drug offenses. That year, the Austin City Council cut the police budget by roughly a third, largely by shifting functions to other agencies. In 2021, however, that funding was restored.83

Austin was among the U.S. cities that saw a record number of homicides last year. Still, voters do not appear to have completely given up on the idea of overhauling public safety. On May 7, Austin voters approved a ballot measure to ban no-knock warrants and decriminalize small amounts of marijuana, with 85 percent of the vote in favor.84

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Outlook

A Swinging Pendulum

The U.S. homicide rate grew in 2021, although not as dramatically as in 2020. It appears to have leveled off this year but shows no sign of decreasing. Whatever the causes of the crime spike are, most observers do not expect crime to return quickly to prepandemic lows.

It is hard to unscramble an omelet, says del Pozo, the former Burlington police chief. “When crime and violence reach a certain point, they take on a certain self-perpetuating life of their own,” he says. “Once it becomes easier to get guns, once the incentives for being law-abiding or worrying about being caught are lessened, it becomes not only a long-term problem but requires direct, societal interventions.”

Although property crimes did not grow in parallel with homicides, they could go up now, predicts Rosenfeld, the University of Missouri criminologist. “I do think we're in for a persistent rise in robberies and property crimes, as long as the inflation increase continues,” he says. “As robbery and property crimes go way up, that can have some influence on violent crimes and homicides, because some robberies end in homicide.”

With crime increasing, it will fuel both public concern and political calls for traditional law enforcement techniques, including additional resources for police. “I see public support returning for effective law enforcement, and I hope that it will return fast enough that we don't suffer the kind of major increases we had in crime in the '70s and '80s,” says Scheidegger of the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation. “We succeeded in bringing down crime beyond our wildest dreams. The thought that we could go back to what we had then is horrifying.”

Historically, the pendulum has swung many times between societies growing tougher on crime and then pulling back in light of abuses of power. Both support for police and support for changing their practices are “hardy perennials,” says Franklin Zimring, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. “None of the major contending sentiments are going to go away,” he says. “The only thing that's changed over time is the increase in the relative strength of both sets of sentiments.”

With many conservatives having joined progressives in pushing for changes to prison policies, if not necessarily policing and sentencing, supporters say it is hard to imagine that the criminal justice reform movement of the past 15 years will fade away entirely. It is possible to imagine a form of compromise occurring, with some policies seeking to deter crime and punish offenders severely, while others offer support for convicts getting back on their feet after incarceration. “You're trying to get to the same or similar places, but the path admittedly is quite a bit different for both sides,” says Head of the Faith & Freedom Coalition.

Different jurisdictions may pursue quite different paths. When a progressive district attorney announces she will no longer be prosecuting a particular crime, “the rest of the state actually overinvestigates and prosecutes on crime X, just to be able to say they're doing the opposite,” Head says.

Not all police departments are created equal. About half of the nation's law enforcement agencies have 10 officers or fewer, says Laurie Robinson, a former Justice Department official. That leaves them without enough staff or expertise to hire crime analysts, in-house trainers or grant writers. “Things can work well in one jurisdiction, and then it's difficult to encourage its adoption elsewhere,” she says. “That makes making change across the country uniformly extremely difficult.”

But while the bipartisan coalitions that have pushed various types of reforms in recent years have grown more fragile due to the rise in crime, the policies they have pursued have gained too much traction to be abandoned entirely, suggests Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice. “My sense is we're in a short-term political cycle in which candidates are trying to put rhetorical points on the board, and there will be some policy setbacks,” Gelb says, “but the foundation there is strong enough to come out the other side.”

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Pro/Con

Should some police functions be handled by others?

Pro Tishaura O. Jones Mayor of St. Louis, Missouri.. Written for CQ Researcher, May 2022 When I was growing up, my cousins and I rode our bikes down Delmar Boulevard to get hot dogs or to the library to get books, and our family didn't worry about us. Decades later, the first time my son biked to see his friends, I drove behind him the whole way. I remember what it was like when our communities felt connected and safe, but times have changed, and we need to reimagine our public safety vision to adapt as well. Since 2020, St. Louis' Cops & Clinicians and 911 Diversion programs have connected callers to social workers and mental health professionals. Since these programs began redirecting 911 calls away from police responses to treatment and services, more than 87 percent of calls have been diverted from unnecessary trips to the hospital for individuals, and more than 95 percent from unnecessary arrest. Diversion tools connect the right professional to the right call while helping our officers focus on their main job: solving violent crime. Someone experiencing a mental health crisis doesn't need to come in contact with the police or get thrown in jail. It doesn't make our neighborhoods safer; it just introduces people into our revolving-door incarceration system while tying up police resources on a call they may not be best suited to handle. Addressing root causes of crime — poverty, housing instability and the like — is key to rebuilding a sense of community that makes us feel safe in our neighborhoods. While other cities across the country saw spikes in violent crime, St. Louis saw a drop between 2020 and 2021 — a fall by more than 25 percent in homicides and 23 percent in violent crime overall. We are using data-driven methods to align our deployment strategy and utilizing diversion, intervention and prevention tools to help make neighborhoods safer while working to take the burden off our exhausted officers. Cities across the country are leading the way on this issue. Denver's STAR program provides a person-centric mobile crisis response to those experiencing problems related to mental health, depression, poverty, homelessness and/or substance abuse issues. My administration is working with the Center for Policing Equity to analyze the racial disparities in our policing that prevents trust from being built, while also examining more ways we can deploy civilians to address nonviolent situations. Decades of locking people up after locking them out of opportunities hasn't made us safer. We need a new approach.

Con Rafael A. Mangual Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute.. Written for CQ Researcher, May 2022 In the wake of recent controversial and highly publicized uses of lethal force by police, many reform-minded activists and lawmakers have sought to take police out of the proverbial equation in a greater share of citizen interactions. One popular method has been the “alternative” responder approach for calls involving individuals thought to be suffering from mental health-related problems. But there is simply no way around the reality that police must continue to respond to these incidents. The United States does not have an adequate number of qualified mental health professionals to respond to the high call volume that big city police departments field. In New York City alone, 911 operators handle nearly 180,000 calls annually that involve “emotionally disturbed persons.” The idea that there exists an untapped pool of qualified responders that would allow us to scale up alternative response efforts to the point of replacing police is simply incongruous with reality. Many such calls will ultimately require a police response, either because the individual in question is violent or because more serious criminal conduct is discovered. What my colleague Charles F. Lehman found studying a mobile crisis intervention program in Eugene, Ore., called Crisis Assistance Helping Out On The Streets (CAHOOTS), is illustrative of the limits of this approach: “In 2019, [CAHOOTS] covered just 17% of Eugene 911 calls…. But even in those relatively limited circumstances, CAHOOTS responders still called for [police] backup in roughly 1 in every 67 calls for service in 2019.” Based on the information typically relayed to a 911 operator, it's also often unclear whether a call can be safely diverted to nonpolice responders. A 2021 study in Philadelphia found that “some events eventually determined to be police/crime activity can initially appear to be public health related,” and vice versa, making the nature of 1 in 5 calls unpredictable. In other words, even if we had enough mental health professionals to respond, we can expect a real (and potentially dangerous) inefficiency based on the likelihood that the error rate in determining whether a police response is needed will be significant. While efforts to augment what police do are laudable in their aims, reform efforts must be guided by the realities on the ground. Those realities suggest that while some calls can safely be handled by civilians, we must work to better prepare cops for a job that, for better or worse, they're going to be stuck doing for the foreseeable future.

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Discussion Questions

Here are some issues to consider regarding U.S. crime:

• Homicides increased dramatically across the country in 2020 and are still rising. What do experts say are some of the reasons behind the spike?

• Why are some city officials considering using other trained experts to respond to certain emergency situations instead of police officers? Do you agree with this approach?

• What triggered the high crime rates in the 1980s and 1990s? Who was most affected?

• Criminal justice reform is one of the few bipartisan policy efforts. What drove both parties to work on this issue together?

• Why are some advocates concerned that criminal justice reforms could be rolled back?

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Short Features

Disadvantaged Communities Hit Hardest by Homicide Spike

On April 4, 15-year-old Juan Carlos Robles-Corona was walking home from school in North Philadelphia when he got ambushed. Twenty shots were fired, possibly to settle an argument that started at school, and Robles-Corona was killed.1

Philadelphia set a record for homicides last year (562), and the pace has not slowed. At Temple University Hospital, which is in North Philadelphia, the number of victims of gun violence treated by the emergency department has increased by 90 percent in the last five years. In Philadelphia, as in other U.S. cities, poverty-stricken neighborhoods often experience the most crime, including homicides.2

For decades, Black men have been disproportionately more likely to be homicide victims, and the problem may be getting worse. Nationwide, murders of Black Americans increased by nearly 40 percent between 2019 and 2020. Black men between the ages of 15 and 34 represented 38 percent of gun deaths in 2020, although they account for just 2 percent of the overall U.S. population. In Philadelphia, where Black people make up 44 percent of the total population, more than three-quarters of those shot since 2015 have been Black men.3

Black residents of Philadelphia are more likely than white residents to say that the city is on the wrong track, according to polling released by The Pew Charitable Trusts last year. Nearly a third said they were considering leaving the city, and 59 percent said they felt unsafe outside in their own neighborhoods at night.4

Philadelphia police patrol downtown on bicycles in 2016. The city, like many others, has seen a spike in crime since 2020, and leaders are trying to find the right balance between the amount of police resources, including more foot and bike patrols, and programs to serve disadvantaged communities, such as those to assist at-risk youth. (AFP/Getty Images/Nicholas Kamm)

“Philadelphians from every ZIP code, in every neighborhood, regardless of their race, class or socioeconomic status, deserve to see a proactive law enforcement presence in their community to protect and serve them,” says Cherelle Parker, who represents parts of North Philadelphia on the City Council.

Getting the right resources to the communities most affected by crime is an ongoing policy puzzle. Hiring more police may be necessary, but will not always be an adequate solution. The safest neighborhoods typically see a limited police presence, while crime-ridden areas are heavily patrolled.

“Overpoliced, high-incarceration communities are the same neighborhoods where there's a loss of public resources overall and a window into an inadequate safety net,” says Nicole D. Porter, senior director of advocacy at the Sentencing Project, a social justice group based in Washington.

Sociologists have often asserted that disadvantaged communities are both overpoliced and underpoliced. They are overpoliced in the sense that residents often feel harassed, intimidated, abused or sometimes wrongly arrested by police. But they are underpoliced in that the crimes occurring in lower-income neighborhoods and in communities of color often go unsolved. Drug arrests remain high, while the number of violent crimes that get solved are usually low. Nationally, the clearance rate for murders — meaning cases in which suspects were arrested and charged — reached a new low of 50 percent in 2020, with other types of crime far less likely to be solved.5

“The Black and brown communities that have been beset by crime are often not well protected by law enforcement,” says Nicholas Turner, president of the Vera Institute of Justice, a Brooklyn-based group that advocates against mass incarceration. “There's a long story about law enforcement being slow to respond to calls and Black victims of crime not getting adequate attention.”

Some researchers believe there is a vicious cycle at work, with residents of high-crime areas and police pulling back from each other. Witnesses may choose not to come forward for fear of their lives. Community residents resent and disparage the police as a kind of occupying force.

“The cops don't want to spend a lot of their time, because the community doesn't want to help out,” says Christopher Herrmann, a former NYPD crime analyst and now an assistant professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York. “Even the victim doesn't want to cooperate.” And, Herrmann says, some police conclude, “‘If the community doesn't want to help us, we don't want to help the community.’”

Some policymakers say a host of tactics are needed to bridge the public safety gap in disadvantaged communities. Council member Parker recently released a plan to hire 300 more police officers in Philadelphia, who would largely serve on foot or bike patrol so they can be “part of the fabric of our communities.” She also wants the city to improve services for crime victims, offer more programs for at-risk youth and address quality-of-life issues, such as securing vacant buildings and cleaning up commercial corridors.

“It is not an either/or,” she says. “I'm going to continue championing a holistic approach to address public safety in the city of Philadelphia — a safer, cleaner city that provides access to opportunity for all.”

Another potential solution: Philadelphia, along with numerous other cities, has been experimenting with having drug or mental health counselors respond to emergency calls in lieu of or alongside uniformed police officers. Local governments should create neighborhood dashboards that display information not only about rates of violence but other problems such as abandoned cars and crumbling school infrastructure, as well as assets including libraries and mental health facilities, says Caterina Roman, a criminal justice professor at Temple University.

“All disadvantaged communities need lots of different types of investment and reinvestments,” she says. “What does the neighborhood need to thrive, so we're not sending the signal to kids every day that they don't matter?”

— Alan Greenblatt

[1] Mensah M. Dean, “‘I just need to know why.’ Mother pleads for answers in the slaying of son, 15,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, April 5, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yckn6d87.

[2] Nina Feldman, “Officials unveil ambitious plan to stem gun violence in Philadelphia, but funding is elusive,” WHYY, April 21, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3ct4f7ts.

[3] Roni Caryn Rabin and Tim Arango, “Gun deaths surged during the pandemic's first year, the C.D.C. reports,” The New York Times, May 10, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p8pbpxd; Jason Laughlin, “Violent crime leaves invisible injuries. Philly hospital staffers use their life stories to help heal them,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, April 28, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2vp9p3w7; Scott R. Kegler et al., “Vital Signs: Changes in Firearm Homicide and Suicide Rates — United States, 2019-2020,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, https://tinyurl.com/5mwvnrmj.

[4] “How Black Philadelphians View Their City,” The Pew Charitable Trusts, June 9, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/445bvjjb.

[5] Weihua Li and Jamiles Lartey, “As Murders Spiked, Police Solved About Half in 2020,” The Marshall Project, Jan. 12, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bdh9memn.

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Several States Re-Examine Juvenile Justice Policies

Last month, a shootout in Rock Hill, S.C., ended with three teenagers dead. The person who allegedly drove the shooters' getaway car is just 16 years old, but prosecutors want to try her as an adult. If their request is granted, she could face up to life in prison if convicted.6

Although nationwide data are not yet available, the number of serious crimes perpetrated by juveniles appears to have spiked since the start of the pandemic. In Cleveland and its suburbs, for instance, the number of juveniles charged with murder increased by 69 percent from 2018 to 2021. Meanwhile in Chicago, the number of teenagers arrested for murder went up by 35 percent between 2019 and 2020. And in Louisville, Ky., three teenagers were arrested or charged with murder over the course of just two days this month.7

As is the case with adults, most crimes committed by juveniles are perpetrated by a small percentage of offenders, says Josh Crawford, executive director of the Pegasus Institute, a conservative think tank in Louisville. Some juveniles who offend frequently or commit serious crimes require incarceration, he says, “There are people who prisons are built for.”

Some states, including Kentucky, are now rethinking policies that have made it more difficult to prosecute juveniles as adults in light of more homicides and carjackings perpetrated by minors. In Louisiana, state Attorney General Jeff Landry told legislators that teenagers are driving the state's increase in violent crimes. The state Legislature might repeal a 2016 “raise the age” law that barred prosecution of most minors as adults.8

Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, seen here, says teenagers are driving the state's spike in crime and should be treated as adults, including going to prison for serious crimes — a sentiment shared by leaders in other jurisdictions. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Prosecution of juveniles as adults has diminished over the past couple of decades. Researchers have found that offering young offenders services and letting them serve time closer to home leads to better outcomes and less recidivism — meaning they are less likely to offend again and return to prison — than locking them up in adult facilities. But when it comes to serious crimes, not everyone thinks childhood should be a get-out-of-jail-free card.

“To draw these absolutely bright lines and say we'll never prosecute them in adult court unless they're 18, no matter what they've done or what their actual maturity is, that's a ridiculous thing to say and do,” says Kent Scheidegger, legal director for the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, a conservative public interest group in Sacramento, Calif.

As with adults, criminal activity among minors has increased during the pandemic. More children found themselves at a loss during the pandemic, as schools and support services shut down, says Laurie Robinson, a former Justice Department official. “This has had probably a more substantial impact on younger people than we've yet had the ability to fully understand,” she says.

For example, juveniles are increasingly committing carjackings. Sometimes this is purely for the thrill of it, not any economic gain, with cars frequently abandoned after they are stolen, says Robinson. A University of Chicago study found that more young people arrested in that city for carjacking in 2020 had no prior records than in the past and were “more likely to live in areas with lower internet access and school attendance, especially during the pandemic.”9

Still, Robinson and other criminologists argue it would be a mistake to undo recent changes in juvenile justice. Most people age out of committing crimes, at least by their 30s. “Children think differently and make decisions differently than adults do,” says Laura Cohen, director of the Criminal and Youth Justice Clinic at Rutgers University. “That makes them less culpable and more likely to change as they grow older.”

Scientists have found that people's brains continue developing into their mid-20s. The U.S. Supreme Court has embraced such findings. In a series of rulings between 2005 and 2016, the Supreme Court abolished the death penalty and life sentences with no possibility of parole in cases not involving murder for those under the age of 18. In the 2012 case Miller v. Alabama, the Supreme Court found that “children are constitutionally different from adults for sentencing purposes.”10

Half of U.S. states have banned sentences of life without parole for juveniles even if convicted of murder. Since 2007, 11 states have raised the age for trying most juveniles in court as adults to 18, with only three states — Georgia, Texas and Wisconsin — prosecuting all 17-year-olds as adults.11

“For a solid 15 years, or longer, courts and legislatures have absorbed the advances in developmental science that have really taught us about what works and doesn't work in treating juveniles who break the laws,” Cohen says. “None of that science has changed by crime rates rising up a bit.”

Even as some states rethink raise-the-age policies, others continue to embrace or expand them. In March, the Maryland Senate passed a bill that would abolish prosecution of most children under the age of 13, although those as young as 10 would remain culpable for serious crimes such as murder.12

Several other states have adopted similar policies. Last year, Vermont became the first state to try 18-year-olds as juveniles. This will increase to 19 in July and is scheduled to increase to 20 in 2024. These law changes are part of a broader effort to replace sentencing with counseling and other services for juveniles.13

The number of incarcerated juveniles dropped by 70 percent between 1995 and 2019, but that reduction closely tracked the number of arrests. With the number of serious crimes being perpetrated by minors rising after a long decline, some prosecutors, policymakers and victims believe it is time to rethink the nature of their punishment.14

“When you signal you're not going to prosecute juveniles for certain crimes, you're signaling to gangs that they're the perfect recruits for your organizations, because even if they're caught, they're not going to face consequences for their actions,” says Zack Smith, a legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington. “Taking that off the table is really handicapping cops and prosecutors seeking justice in these cases.”

— Alan Greenblatt

[6] Andrew Dys, “SC prosecutors want juvenile Rock Hill girl tried as adult in shooting where 3 died,” The Herald, May 17, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/msbcy8h9.

[7] Adam Ferrise, “Number of juveniles charged with murder in Cleveland, its suburbs spiked in recent years,” Cleveland.com , March 29, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yat29dte; Lourdes Duarte, “Chicago police see spike in juveniles arrested for murder,” WGN9, Feb. 4, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/k3bmmfwr; Isaiah Kim-Martinez, “‘It has to come to a head at some point’: Community leaders express concern over teen violence,” WHAS11, May 12, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/56vzc8cs.

[8] Mark Ballard, “Senate panel votes to repeal ‘Raise the Age’ law, send 17-year-olds to adult prison,” The Advocate, April 26, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/36w9znfv.

[9] “How the Pandemic is Accelerating Carjackings in Chicago,” Chicago Tribune, Data Points Column, June 20, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/bdf3e59u.

[10] Josh Rovner, “Juvenile Life Without Parole: An Overview,” The Sentencing Project, May 24, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4szwkmy6; Miller v. Alabama, U.S. 9646 — (2012), https://tinyurl.com/ycksp9uy.

[11] Rovner, op. cit.; Marcy Mistrett, “Bringing More Teens Home: Raising the Age Without Expanding Secure Confinement in the Youth Justice System,” The Sentencing Project, June 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yha62y38.

[12] “Maryland Juvenile Justice Reform Bill Passes State Senate,” The Associated Press, U.S. News & World Report, March 21, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yc3ar868.

[13] Alan J. Keays, “Scott administration seeks to slow down Raise the Age initiative,” VTDigger, Oct. 10, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3pv4vetw; Peter Hirschfeld, “Scott administration wants to ‘pause’ plan to send 19-year-olds through the juvenile court system,” Vermont Public Radio, Oct. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4rpbk5es.

[14] “Youth Incarceration in the United States,” The Annie E. Casey Foundation, Dec. 14, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/dyfeb9k9.

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Bibliography

Books

Messenger, Tony, Profit and Punishment: How America Criminalizes the Poor in the Name of Justice, St. Martin's Press, 2021. A journalist writes that low-income Americans are often charged exorbitant fines and fees for minor crimes, entering a cycle of debt they cannot escape once imprisoned.

Pfaff, John F., Locked In: The True Causes of Mass Incarceration and How to Achieve Real Reform, Basic Books, 2017. A Fordham University law professor argues that mass incarceration was caused not by longer sentences or the war on drugs, but an increase in the number of prosecutors.

Articles

“Are progressive prosecutors to blame for an American homicide wave?” The Economist, Feb. 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p9fhf6e. Recent data show that policy changes pursued by progressive prosecutors bear no relation to increases in crime, compared to jurisdictions with prosecutors taking a more traditional approach.

Brownstein, Ronald, “Why California Wants to Recall Its Most Progressive Prosecutors,” The Atlantic, April 28, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/mvzrw34c. The district attorneys of San Francisco and Los Angeles are seeking alternatives to prosecution to keep people out of prison, but voters seeking safety and stability are growing impatient.

Dungca, Nicole, and Jenn Abelson, “No-knock raids have led to fatal encounters and small drug seizures,” The Washington Post, April 15, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/ybzy8vvu. As part of an investigative series, two reporters find that forcible, unannounced entry of homes by police was once rare but now occurs thousands of times annually, with judges rarely questioning assertions by officers about their need for no-knock warrants.

Levine, Marianne, “Criminal justice reform faces political buzzsaw as GOP hones its midterm message,” Politico, April 14, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yuzbpu7x. Some senators want to pursue changes to federal sentencing laws, but political messaging on rising crime rates and being “soft on crime” make success unlikely.

Lopez, German, “A Violent Crisis,” The New York Times, April 17, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/fzrab4de. A reporter looks at how the pandemic, distrust of police and a proliferation of guns have all contributed to a sense of social discord — and with it, a rise in violent crime.

Otterbein, Holly, and David Siders, “Dems retreat on crime and police reform,” Politico, April 13, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bdz5sp7c. Democrats who were sympathetic to the idea of holding police accountable for abuses in 2020 are now facing a backlash amid rising crime rates.

Robertson, Campbell, “‘I Honestly Believe It's a Game’: Why Carjacking Is on the Rise Among Teens,” The New York Times, March 1, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/23bfc88y. The number of carjackings has risen dramatically in cities such as Chicago, New Orleans and Philadelphia. Shortages of cars may be one explanation, but many offenders are juveniles who some say seem to be looking for thrills.

Willick, Jason, “GOP attacks on Jackson miss the real liberal weakness on crime,” The Washington Post, March 25, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3y3vhv3a. A political columnist argues that the real problem behind the growing crime wave is diminished police forces and prosecutors failing to indict, not lenient judges, as some Republicans say.

Reports and Studies

Craigie, Terry-Ann , et al., “Conviction, Imprisonment, and Lost Earnings: How Involvement with the Criminal Justice System Deepens Inequality,” Brennan Center for Justice, Sept. 15, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/2p8fr7kf. A report from a nonpartisan law institute finds that individuals who are incarcerated face hiring discrimination and other economic barriers that lowers their financial prospects, primarily for Black and Hispanic Americans.

Murdock, Kylie, and Jim Kessler, “The Red State Murder Problem,” Third Way, March 15, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bdrrv6mr. A report from a centrist Democratic think tank finds that per capita murder rates are 40 percent higher in states that President Donald Trump won in the 2020 election compared to those won by Biden, while most of the states with the highest murder rates have voted for Republican presidents consistently.

Rose, Evan K., and Yotam Shem-Tov, “How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function,” Journal of Political Economy, December 2021, https://tinyurl.com/44v4k3vt. Two economists say the prospect of incarceration reduces criminal offenses, but longer sentences offer diminishing returns in terms of deterrence.

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The Next Step

City Response

Haines, Matt, “New Orleans Grapples with Surging Crime,” Voice of America, Feb. 5, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/29h8m6nm. New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell held a press conference to share several strategies being considered to fight the city's growing crime wave, including designating a citywide unit to investigate violent crime or 12-hour patrol shifts to shorten 911 response times.

Lowrey, Annie, “The People vs. Chesa Boudin,” The Atlantic, May 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/4daprbv3. As progressive San Francisco prosecutor Chesa Boudin faces a recall election, property crime is rising in residential areas; Boudin says more arrests and policing are not the answer to the growing threat.

Molina, Tara, “Crime and chaos downtown and beyond are keeping tourists away from Chicago, and experts say something has to change,” CBS News, May 18, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/224e9uma. Chicago is setting curfews and encouraging business leaders to hire young people in order to keep them off the streets and stop the surge of crime downtown.

COVID-19 and Crime

Martinez, Christian, “Inflation, crime, COVID: L.A. County quality-of-life scores take a hit across the board,” Los Angeles Times, April 22, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p9cpd8j. Rising crime and other lingering effects of the pandemic have lowered the quality of life in Los Angeles, say area residents in a survey by UCLA.

Pettypiece, Shannon, “Biden urges cities to spend Covid relief money on police, crime prevention,” NBC News, May 13, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5n8pxjv7. President Biden urged states to use unspent money from 2021's economic COVID-19 relief package to fund crime prevention and hire more police officers.

Raskin, Sam, “NYC could face ‘long-term decline’ of workers returning to offices over crime: advocate,” New York Post, May 8, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/8yp4dej6. Some advocates say the low attendance of NYC workers returning to the office is due in larger part to high crime in the city compared to the risk of COVID-19.

Homicide

“America's gun culture — in seven charts,” BBC News, April 22, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3mja2s6t. The number of firearm-related U.S. homicides has increased significantly since 2020; recent data show the nation's complicated relationship with guns.

Abusaid, Shaddi, “Always on call: Atlanta's homicide detectives combat the city's deadly surge,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, May 18, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bde76cwb. Atlanta's homicide detective unit is working long hours and is always on call, as murders rise in the city.

Cline, Sara, “Portland police shift resources to address rising homicides,” Oregon Public Broadcasting, The Associated Press, May 3, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yckp9vym. As homicides rise in Portland, Ore., detectives are being pulled from the cold case squad, which investigates old unsolved murders, to help investigate recent killings.

Policing

Daniels, Keith, “Baltimore city officers to spend more time on patrol, less on ‘minor’ crimes,” Fox45 News, May 18, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p8xemmr. The Baltimore Police Department is short 300 officers and spending a lot of time on false alarms; it is now reorganizing to focus more on day-to-day crime.

Difilippo, Dana, “Lawmakers eye eliminating county constables in N.J.,” New Jersey Monitor, May 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p8h2he2. The New Jersey state Legislature is considering a bill that would abolish county constables, who, according to a state commission report, often misrepresent themselves as sworn law enforcement officers.

Glueck, Katie, and Ashley Southall, “As Adams Toughens on Crime, Some Fear a Return to '90s Era Policing,” The New York Times, March 26, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/uy4hfm5t. The New York City Police Department announced a new initiative to enforce “quality-of-life matters,” such as public drinking and public urination, but some critics are concerned that the city is moving closer to its controversial “stop and frisk” policing tactics of the 1990s.

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Contacts

The Council of State Governments
1776 Avenue of the States, Lexington, KY 40511
859-244-8000
csg.org
The nation's largest nonpartisan organization serving state officials, with a justice center that conducts research and provides technical assistance to state lawmakers on issues such as courts and re-entry.

Council on Criminal Justice
700 Pennsylvania Ave., S.E., Washington, DC 20003
counciloncj.org
A nonpartisan invitational membership think tank that advocates for and conducts research on criminal justice policies and solutions.

The Heritage Foundation
214 Massachusetts Ave., N.E., Washington, DC 20002
202-546-4400
heritage.org
A conservative think tank that generates and promotes policy ideas on a wide variety of public issues, including criminal justice.

Manhattan Institute
52 Vanderbilt Ave., New York, NY 10017
212-599-7000
manhattan-institute.org
A free market think tank that conducts research on domestic policy and urban affairs.

The Pew Charitable Trusts
901 E St., N.W., Washington, DC 20004
202-552-2000
pewtrusts.org
A nonpartisan nonprofit that conducts research on a wide variety of policy issues, including public safety, criminal justice and corrections.

The Sentencing Project
1705 DeSales St., N.W., 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036
202-628-0871
sentencingproject.org
A research and advocacy group that seeks to minimize mass incarceration and tough sentencing.

Urban Institute
500 L'Enfant Plaza, S.W., Washington, DC 20004
202-833-7200
urban.org
The centrist think tank's Justice Policy Center conducts research on criminal justice issues, with a focus on prisoner re-entry.

U.S. Department of Justice
950 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20530
202-514-2000
justice.gov
The federal government department for law enforcement and criminal justice; includes the FBI and Bureau of Justice Statistics, which generate data on crime.

Vera Institute of Justice
34 35th St., Suite 4-2A, Brooklyn, NY 11232
212-334-1300
vera.org
An advocacy group that seeks to improve prison conditions and limit mass incarceration.

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Footnotes

[1] Bill Hutchinson, “From Buffalo to Houston, 8 US cities rocked by violent weekend of shootings,” ABC News, May 16, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5n6c6nm9.

[2] Jaclyn Diaz, “27 school shootings have taken place so far this year,” NPR, May 25, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2duk4c3j.

[3] Bill Miston, “Milwaukee homicides up 100% from record-breaking 2021,” Fox6 News Milwaukee, March 30, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yc78n7rm; Jacqueline Howard, “US records highest increase in nation's homicide rate in modern history, CDC says,” CNN, Oct. 6, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/4ybxurpm; Bill Hutchinson, “‘It's just crazy’: 12 major cities hit all-time homicide records,” ABC News, Dec. 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/mr2k2jpb.

[4] Jason E. Goldstick, Rebecca M. Cunningham and Patrick M. Carter, “Current Causes of Death in Children and Adolescents in the United States,” The New England Journal of Medicine, April 20, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p8hhnp5; Goldstick, Cunningham and Carter, “Current Causes of Death in Children,” Supplemental Appendix, https://tinyurl.com/2rdrx8em.

[5] John Gramlich, “What the data says (and doesn't say) about crime in the United States,” Pew Research Center, Nov. 20, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/bd8wfmkt.

[6] “Democrats Promote Soft-on-Crime Prosecutors as Murders Surge,” Office of Mitch McConnell, Dec. 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/hknbejzb.

[7] Gary Langer, “GOP strong on crime, boosted by trust in inflation: POLL,” ABC News, April 30, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/ycx2b8s8.

[8] Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Charlie Savage, “Biden Set to Issue Policing Order on Anniversary of Floyd Killing,” The New York Times, May 24, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/ymuc86sf; Shannon Pettypiece, “Biden signs police reform executive order on anniversary of George Floyd's death,” NBC News, May 25, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/ykkzxhnc.

[9] “State of the Union Address,” The White House, March 1, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yuxb6fre.

[10] Nathan James, “The First Step Act of 2018: An Overview,” Congressional Research Service, March 4, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/2s3ae52a.

[11] Alan Greenblatt, “‘Getting to Yes’: How a New Mayor Plans to Reshape His City,” Governing, April 6, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yrx34rsv.

[12] Ibid.

[13] Weihua Li and Beth Schwartzappel, “Murders Rose Last Year. Black and Hispanic Neighborhoods Were Hit Hardest,” The Marshall Project, April 8, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/bdhvmchb; Latoya Hill and Samantha Artiga, “COVID-19 Cases and Deaths by Race/Ethnicity: Current Data and Changes Over Time,” Kaiser Family Foundation, Feb. 22, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3c3vm9wm.

[14] Julia P. Schleimer et al., “Firearm purchasing and firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States: a cross-sectional study,” Injury Epidemiology, July 5, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/mszk3csp; Shengzhi Sun et al., “Analysis of Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US,” JAMA Network, April 28, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3tfjp8rf.

[15] Rachel Treisman, “COVID was again the leading cause of death among U.S. law enforcement in 2021,” NPR, Jan. 12, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p9rkx57; “Reducing Jail and Prison Populations During the Covid-19 Pandemic,” Brennan Center for Justice, Jan. 7, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yp85dkzz.

[16] Susie Neilson, “San Francisco crime rates drastically shifted in the pandemic. These charts show what's happening now,” San Francisco Chronicle, April 8, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/mv783s5w.

[17] Ronald Brownstein, “Why California Wants to Recall Its Most Progressive Prosecutors,” The Atlantic, April 28, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/mvzrw34c; John Ferrannini and Camila Barco, “Poll: SF voters back Boudin recall; split on Mayor Breed,” KRON4, May 11, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/4f76269m.

[18] J.R. Stone, “SF DA defends his policies as city makes national headlines with highest property crime rate,” ABC7 News, March 22, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bp6v4axt.

[19] Alan Greenblatt, “Law and the New Order: A Fresh Wave of District Attorneys Is Redefining Justice,” Governing, March 22, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/mrrdcbbc; Paige St. John and Abbie VanSickle, “Here's why George Soros, liberal groups are spending big to help decide who's your next D.A.,” Los Angeles Times, May 23, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/3nbxvbpn; Scott Bland, “George Soros' quiet overhaul of the U.S. justice system,” Politico, Aug. 30, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/2x4ehexw; and Abbie VanSickle and Maurice Chammah, “California Voters Reject Prosecutor ‘Reformers,’” The Marshall Project, June 6, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/2spw6k46.

[20] Justin Jouvenal, “From defendant to top prosecutor, this tattooed Texas DA represents a new wave in criminal justice reform,” The Washington Post, Nov. 19, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/4987rynx.

[21] Kylie Murdock and Jim Kessler, “The Red State Murder Problem,” Third Way, March 15, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/bdrrv6mr.

[22] John Pfaff, “Can Criminal Justice Reform Survive a Wave of Violent Crime?” The New Republic, June 21, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3ese336z.

[23] Katie Meyer, “Philly DA Larry Krasner cruises to reelection victory,” WHYY, Nov. 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yvjybxbu.

[24] Elise Schmelzer, “Thousands of calls later, Denver's acclaimed program that provides an alternative to police response is expanding,” The Denver Post, Feb. 20, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/74m5btry.

[25] Ibid.

[26] Jackson Beck, Melissa Reuland and Leah Pope, “Case Study: Cahoots,” Vera Institute of Justice, November 2020, https://tinyurl.com/yckrt4ek; Greg Walters, “These Cities Replaced Cops With Social Workers, Medics, and People Without Guns,” Vice, June 12, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/45wswkjp.

[27] Johnny Diaz, “Philadelphia Settles Lawsuit in Fatal Police Shooting of Walter Wallace Jr.,” The New York Times, Oct. 29, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/56empr8p.

[28] Sarah Grace Taylor, “100 days as Seattle mayor: Bruce Harrell relying on likability, relationship-building in charting city's course,” The Seattle Times, April 10, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/4r49jc5k.

[29] Danielle S. Allen, The World of Prometheus: The Politics of Punishing in Democratic Athens (1999), p. 3; Joan E. Jacoby, “American Prosecutor in Historical Context,” Prosecutor, May-June 1997, https://tinyurl.com/2fh7cb7b.

[30] Roger Scott, “Roots: A Historical Perspective of the Office of Sheriff,” National Sheriffs' Association, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/dr9j46cf.

[31] Jill Lepore, “The Invention of the Police,” The New Yorker, July 20, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/2vkpttpj.

[32] Connie Hassett-Walker, “The racist roots of American policing: From slave patrols to traffic stops,” The Conversation, June 4, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/bdeyb7nm.

[33] Maya Schenwar and Victoria Law, Prison By Any Other Name (2020), p. 13.

[34] Ibid.

[35] Nora V. Demleitner, “Organized Crime and Prohibition: What Difference Does Legalization Make?” Whittier Law Review, 1994, https://tinyurl.com/4yc7ankp; “Prisoners 1925-1981,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, U.S. Department of Justice, December 1982, https://tinyurl.com/yck3mt5a.

[36] Frank Schmalleger, Criminal Justice: A Brief Introduction, 13th ed. (2020), p. 28.

[37] Elizabeth Hinton, From the War on Poverty to the War on Crime: The Making of Mass Incarceration in America (2016), p. 1.

[38] Ibid., p. 2.

[39] John A. Farrell, Richard Nixon: The Life (2017), p. 330; Hinton, op. cit., p. 163; Benjamin T. Smith, “New Documents Reveal the Bloody Origins of America's Long War on Drugs,” Time, Aug. 24, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3wkm8pav.

[40] Dan Baum, “Legalize It All,” Harper's Magazine, April 2016, https://tinyurl.com/5h5fvwv5.

[41] “How Bad Was Crack Cocaine?” Chicago Booth Review, April 1, 2006, https://tinyurl.com/2p864d76.

[42] Hinton, op. cit., pp. 311-312.

[43] “Cracks in the System: Twenty Years of the Unjust Federal Crack Cocaine Law,” ACLU, October 2006, https://tinyurl.com/34xcmwwh.

[44] Nathan J. Robinson, “The Death of Ricky Ray Rector,” Jacobin, November 2016, https://tinyurl.com/ycyytypp; Adam Janos, “Rickey Ray Rector, The Death Row Inmate Who Lobotomized Himself,” True Crime Blog: Stories & News, A&E, May 12, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/exwrb6xu.

[45] German Lopez, “The controversial 1994 crime law that Joe Biden helped write, explained,” Vox, Sept. 29, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/2pwnw62z.

[46] Paula M. Ditton and Doris James Wilson, “Truth in Sentencing in State Prisons,” U.S. Department of Justice, January 1999, https://tinyurl.com/4kr947n2.

[47] Christopher Dunn and Michelle Shames, “Stop-and-Frisk in the de Blasio Era,” New York Civil Liberties Union, March 2019, https://tinyurl.com/2p8mnn4v; Taahira Thompson, “NYPD's Infamous Stop-and-Frisk Policy Found Unconstitutional,” The Leadership Conference Education Fund, August 21, 2013, https://tinyurl.com/2p83heun.

[48] John F. Pfaff, Locked In: The True Causes of Mass Incarceration and How to Achieve Real Reform (2017), p. 129.

[49] Ames Grawert, Matthew Friedman and James Cullen, “Crime Trends: 1990-2016,” Brennan Center for Justice, April 18, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/2w9yjfa5.

[50] Pfaff, Locked In, p. 1; “Prisoners 1925-1981,” op. cit.; William J. Sabol, Heather C. West and Matthew Cooper, “Prisoners in 2008,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, December 2009, https://tinyurl.com/bdcuy44u.

[51] Thomas J. Bonczar and Allen J. Beck, “Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, March 1997, https://tinyurl.com/3b37aykr; Tracey Meares, “The Legitimacy of Police Among Young African-American Men,” Marquette Law Review, Summer 2009, https://tinyurl.com/y2jsr3a7.

[52] “One in 100: Behind Bars in America 2008,” The Pew Center on the States, The Pew Charitable Trusts, Feb. 28, 2008, https://tinyurl.com/bdtte2e5.

[53] Michelle Alexander, The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness (2010).

[54] “Criminal Justice Reform: Breaking the Cycle of Drug Use and Crime,” Office of National Drug Policy, accessed May 19, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/4y9ymckf; Christopher Ingraham, “The states that spend more money on prisoners than college students,” The Washington Post, July 7, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/93cmcnf8.

[55] “Assessing the Impact of the 2007 Justice Reinvestment Initiative,” The Council of State Governments Justice Center, March 2009, https://tinyurl.com/bdfwthjz.

[56] Nancy LaVigne and Ernesto Lopez, “Recidivism Rates: What You Need to Know,” Council on Criminal Justice, Sept. 1, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/vhn67uec.

[57] Council of State Governments, op. cit.

[58] Shane Bauer, “How Conservatives Learned to Love Prison Reform,” Mother Jones, March/April 2014, https://tinyurl.com/25798s3p.

[59] Joan Petersilia, When Prisoners Come Home: Parole and Prisoner Reentry (2009), p. 253.

[60] “Second Chance Act (Fact Sheet),” Bureau of Justice Assistance, U.S. Department of Justice, April 2018, https://tinyurl.com/2p8p3m8j.

[61] Brinley Hineman, “Fact check: Obama administration implemented several police and prison reforms,” USA Today, Sept. 22, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/zu28b47f.

[62] “Full text: Donald Trump 2016 RNC draft speech transcript,” Politico, July 21, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/38f6yjzc; Jan Ransom, “Trump Will Not Apologize for Calling for Death Penalty Over Central Park Five,” The New York Times, June 18, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/wpc3aruv.

[63] German Lopez, “Congress just passed the most significant criminal justice reform bill in decades,” Vox, Dec. 20, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/mta7c2by.

[64] Eric H. Holder Jr., “There's something huge missing from the White House's prison bill,” The Washington Post, May 21, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/2p952v6r.

[65] “Debate transcript: Trump, Biden final presidential debate moderated by Kristen Welker,” USA Today, Oct. 23, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/ycjwzzsz.

[66] Wesley Lowery, “Black Lives Matter: birth of a movement,” The Guardian, Jan. 17, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/v6wttcwv; Ram Subramanian and Leah Skrzypiec, “To Protect and Serve: New Trends in State-Level Policing Reform, 2015-2016,” Vera Institute of Justice, April 2017, https://tinyurl.com/2p9y3rka.

[67] Colin A. Young, “Baker Signs Landmark Massachusetts Policing Reform Law,” WGBH News, Dec. 31, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/4wvat2s3; Sarah Swann, “How policing has changed in the year since George Floyd's death,” The Fulcrum, May 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/243zezk4.

[68] Deepa Shivaram, “Suspect in Waukesha Christmas parade attack had prior criminal record,” NPR, Nov. 22, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2p8ndck6.

[69] Melissa Brown, “Tennessee General Assembly passes controversial ‘truth in sentencing’ legislation,” Tennessean, April 21, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/38tfxsxb; Jon Styf, “Truth in sentencing becomes Tennessee law without Gov. Bill Lee's signature,” The Center Square, May 6, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3pymrds7.

[70] Joseph Spector and Anna Gronewold, “New York Democrats pare back nation-leading bail reform amid crime wave,” Politico, April 11, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yc3rr3dw; William J. Bratton and Rafael A. Mangual, “‘Bail Reform’ Is Killing New Yorkers as Eric Adams Pushes for Change,” The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p9ff2w7; Olivia Wile, “Bail reform resolution sparks mixed reactions among Ohio lawmakers,” Spectrum News 1, April 6, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/33byvdp2.

[71] Megan Brenan, “Worry About Crime in U.S. at Highest Level Since 2016,” Gallup, April 7, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5n6fnxp9.

[72] Stephen Gruber-Miller and Ian Richardson, “Saying she's ‘grateful to the heroes,’ Gov. Kim Reynolds raises penalties for protest-related crimes, boosts police protections,” Des Moines Register, June 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yckrpyyk; Suzie Ziegler, “Ga. bill would exempt police from paying income taxes,” Police1, Feb. 1, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/36xcpw2p.

[73] Matthew Barakat, “Virginia AG ends effort to prosecute U.S. Park Police officers who shot unarmed motorist,” The Virginian-Pilot, April 23, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5f52xxu8; “Police department budget preemption conflicts between state and local governments,” Ballotpedia, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/3bujdpts; Abbott campaign, Twitter post, Feb. 28, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yj9vfdt6.

[74] Joan E. Greve, “Sweeping George Floyd police reform bill stalls as talks collapse,” The Guardian, Sept. 22, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/yc34huj4; “Fact Sheet: George Floyd Justice in Policing Act of 2021,” House Judiciary Committee, https://tinyurl.com/3jd9xf5w.

[75] Marianne Levine, “Criminal justice reform faces political buzzsaw as GOP hones its midterm message,” Politico, April 14, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/yuzbpu7x.

[76] Jamal Nelson, “Federal Spending Bill Funds Key Criminal Justice Programs,” The Council of State Governments Justice Center, April 4, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/5ftcp8bk.

[77] C.J. Ciaramella, “House Passes EQUAL Act to Erase Sentencing Disparity Between Crack and Powder Cocaine,” Reason, Sept. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/bddjpzs5.

[78] “Van Hollen, Trone Introduce the Bipartisan Fresh Start Act to Remove Barriers for Justice-Impacted Individuals,” Office of Sen. Chris Van Hollen, Oct. 20, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/47wa72u3.

[79] Kristian Hernández, “More States Consider Automatic Criminal Record Expungement,” Stateline, May 25, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2s43cuxs; “After a haul of record relief reforms in 2020, more states launch clean slate campaigns,” Collateral Consequences Resource Center, Feb. 17, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2p854kuw.

[80] Katie Krzaczek, “8 common traffic violations no longer warrant a police stop in Philly,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, March 3, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3wbfwj3p; Ximena Conde, “With hard-won support of Philly's top cop, bill to ban minor traffic stops moves ahead,” WHYY, Sept. 22, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2p8pyj3a.

[81] Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh activists, officials hope legislation will end ‘systemic racism’ in traffic stops,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Feb. 16, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3nspp6et.

[82] Char Adams, “Cities vowed in 2020 to cut police funding — but budgets expanded in 2021,” NBC News, Dec. 28, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/ywftww69; “Minneapolis voters reject plan to overhaul city policing,” MPR News, Nov. 2, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/57h4h5e7.

[83] David Lefler, “How DA José Garza is Transforming Criminal Justice,” Austin Monthly, July 2021, https://tinyurl.com/2zwr2fpf; Meena Venkataramanan, “Austin City Council cuts police department budget by one-third, mainly through reorganizing some duties out from law enforcement oversight,” Texas Tribune, Aug. 13, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/2p8nmdz5; Austin Sanders, “Austin Police Funding Restored; Is It Too Much, or Not Enough?” The Austin Chronicle, July 30, 2021, https://tinyurl.com/43546p2e.

[84] Sally Hernandez, “Austin saw a record number of homicides in 2021. How many did police solve?” KXAN, Jan. 7, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/48hjfn78; Audrey McGlinchy, “Austin votes to ban no-knock warrants and decriminalize small amounts of weed,” KUT 90.5, May 7, 2022, https://tinyurl.com/2p92bxwt.

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About the Author

Alan Greenblatt is a senior staff writer at Governing magazine. Previously he covered politics and government for NPR and CQ Weekly, where he won the National Press Club's Sandy Hume Award for political journalism. He graduated from San Francisco State University in 1986 and received a master's degree in English literature from the University of Virginia in 1988. His most recent CQ Researcher report was on redistricting.

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