Prospects for Democracy in South Vietnam

Report Outline
Uncertainties Amid coming Election
Political Development of Viet Nam
Chronology of South Viet Nam Politics, 1963–70
Effect of U.S. Withdrawal on Election
Special Focus

Uncertainties Amid coming Election

Importance of Presidential Election to U.S. Role

The issues are unclear and the electorate is cynical and apathetic. Yet, South Viet Nam's presidential election next October is a topic of concern and comment throughout the world. Much—including the overriding question of peace or a continuation of the war—is believed to be in the balance. Among other things, the vote will test the depth of democratic institutions in a republic proclaimed only 16 years ago. The election could validate or invalidate President Nixon's Vietnamization program. And it will be a test of President Nguyen Van Thieu's policies, including his decision to invade Laos earlier this year.

Less than four months before the election was due to take place on Oct. 3, 1971, Thieu had not said definitely that he would seek a second term. However, most observers did not doubt that he would. The only declared candidate for his office was Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky. Previously a hawk, Ky was making the dovish proposal that direct peace talks be started with the National Liberation Front, the so-called political arm of the Viet Cong. This is also the stand taken by the popular but hesitant Duong Van Minh, a retired four-star general who deposed the autocratic Ngo Dinh Diem in 1963 and ruled Viet Nam for three months before he, too, was ousted in a coup d'état. Minh, known as “Big Minh” because at six feet he towers over most Vietnamese, has already been labeled the peace candidate but has yet to declare himself.

Rightly or wrongly, Thieu is regarded as the “American” candidate. Moreover, the nature of the U.S. involvement in Viet Nam is so deep that most western observers feel that the American candidate must win. Many of them—but not all—regard Thieu's re-election as virtually assured and are expressing regret in advance. They see a Thieu victory as an event likely to perpetuate the war indefinitely because Thieu has consistently rejected any notion of a coalition government in Saigon that would include Communists. They also see a Thieu victory being regarded by the world as evidence of American intervention in the election, despite official U.S. claims of keeping hands off.