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Iowa positioned itself at the beginning of the presidential nominating calendar in the 1970s. And since then, it has formed a potent one-two tandem with New Hampshire. For the last two decades, the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to win the party’s presidential nomination. But the Republican vote in Iowa has been less of a harbinger, with George W. Bush in 2000 the party’s last Iowa winner to capture the Republican nomination. However, GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 came very close to taking Iowa. He ran ahead by 8 votes on caucus night before the final tally a fortnight later put Rick Santorum ahead by 34 votes. The presidential nominee in each election is highlighted in blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans.

Source: The Rhodes Cook Letter, January 2016

This is the 100th anniversary of the New Hampshire presidential primary. But it was not until Dwight Eisenhower defeated “Mr. Republican,” Robert Taft, in the Granite State’s 1952 Republican primary that the event became a part of the nation’s political lore. Since the 1960s, New Hampshire’s first-in-the nation primary has been a mandatory stop for any serious Democratic or Republican candidate seeking the White House. Over the last half century, the New Hampshire GOP primary has been particularly prescient in predicting the party’s nominee. In all but two elections since 1968-1996 and 2000-the Republican primary winner in New Hampshire has gone on to win the party’s nomination. The presidential nominee in each election is highlighted below in blue for the Democrats and red for the Republicans.

 
Document Citation
Cook, R. (2016). Iowa and New Hampshire presidential contests in historical context. Retrieved from http://library.cqpress.com/
Document ID: rcookltr-1527-98189-2717253
Document URL: http://library.cqpress.com/elections/rcookltr-1527-98189-2717253