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Unlike his father in 1987 and his brother in 1999, Jeb Bush is not leading the Republican presidential field in the middle of the year preceding the election. And it is virtually certain that he will have a far more daunting task in nailing down the Republican nomination in 2016 than either of the earlier Bushes in 1988 and 2000. George H.W. Bush in June 1987 and George W. Bush in June 1999 led their nearest GOP rivals in the Gallup Poll by roughly 20 and 50 percentage points, respectively, en route to dominant showings in the primaries. This time, Jeb Bush draws barely a fraction of the support that his father and brother did in mid-1987 and mid-1999, and trails the late July Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, by 5 points. That margin is based on a recent compilation of polls by Real Clear Politics. This chart does not include George H.W. Bush’s first bid for the Republican presidential nomination in the 1980 election cycle, when he launched his campaign as a long shot and did not register in the Gallup Poll until the late summer of 1979.

Source: The Rhodes Cook Letter, July, 2015 The Rhodes–Cook Letter, July, 2015

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2016 Hillary vs. 2012 Hillary

2016 Hillary vs. 2012 Hillary

Hillary Clinton is starting her second bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in far more commanding position than her first. In her initial campaign in 2007-08, Clinton enjoyed a consistent lead over her rivals for much of the year preceding the primaries. But she was doggedly tailed by Barack Obama, who outlasted Clinton in a long-running primary battle the following year. Thus far this time, Clinton has been lapping the Democratic field and is regarded as the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination in 2016. But that could change in the months ahead. Vice President Joe Biden has not yet indicated whether he will enter the race, and Bernie Sanders has been drawing large crowds across the country while closing the gap with Clinton in polls from the critical early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

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2016 Hillary vs. 2012 Hillary

 
Document Citation
Cook, R. (2015). The polls: Bush vs. Bushes and Clinton vs. Clinton. Retrieved from http://library.cqpress.com/
Document ID: rcookltr-1527-97783-2707663
Document URL: http://library.cqpress.com/elections/rcookltr-1527-97783-2707663