Universal Basic Income

Introduction

A robot at an Amazon fulfillment center in Orlando, Fla., helps fill a shipment last April. Proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) point to the importance of providing a secure living for U.S. citizens facing potential job losses from automation. (Getty Images/NurPhoto/Paul Hennessy)

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Overview

In February of last year, nursing student Cassandra Gonzalez of Stockton, Calif., began receiving $500 a month, to use as she wished, part of an 18-month-long program led by her city's mayor and funded by private donations.

Gonzalez was one of 130 people living in low-income areas chosen to receive the money as part of an experiment to see how receiving cash, with no strings attached, affects their lives.

Susie Garza shows a debit card loaded with $500 monthly from the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration, an 18-month program for 130 low-income residents of Stockton, Calif. The experiment analyzes how a guarantee of money can reduce stress and help recipients plan for the future. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

For Gonzalez, 20, a stay-at-home mother who takes online nursing courses while caring for her toddler son, the extra money has helped pay for diapers, unexpected medical bills and college textbooks. Now, instead of constantly worrying about money, “I'm … a happier person,” she said in a video interview provided by organizers of the Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED) experiment. “I can finally focus on me, enjoy my son, enjoy my family.”

The SEED program is one of several “free money” experiments underway in the United States and abroad, with more in the works. They are part of a movement to provide a universal basic income (UBI), popularized recently by some technology industry entrepreneurs as a way to help people survive job losses expected to result from automation. Silicon Valley entrepreneur and former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang trained a national spotlight on the UBI debate by proposing as his campaign's key economic policy to provide a “freedom dividend” of $1,000 a month to every U.S. citizen over 18.

Inspired in part by dire predictions of rising unemployment in the not-too-distant future triggered by technological innovation, lawmakers and policymakers here and abroad are examining and testing ways to guarantee citizens a certain level of income. Besides improving recipients' health and quality of life, a guaranteed income can stimulate the economy, help reduce the widening income gap between the rich and the poor and provide benefits more efficiently than existing social welfare programs, UBI proponents say. But some economists have raised concerns about the high cost and efficacy of UBI proposals, whether they would end up shifting resources from the needy to the well-off and whether they discourage people from working.

A Yang-type UBI would cost “something like 50 percent to 100 percent of the entire federal budget,” says Robert Greenstein, founder and president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank that analyzes budgetary issues affecting low- and moderate-income Americans.

Politicians, economists and philosophers of various ideological stripes have supported the concept of a guaranteed income for centuries, ranging from Renaissance social philosopher Sir Thomas More to Republican President Richard M. Nixon. Some modern economists also have touted the idea: Libertarian Charles Murray has argued that a UBI replace social safety-net programs. And Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes has proposed providing $500 per month for individuals earning less than $50,000 a year.1

Surveys indicate that support for adopting a UBI to offset technology-induced unemployment is growing among voters, especially young ones. Between February and September of last year, overall support for a guaranteed income among registered voters rose from 43 percent to 49 percent. Republicans were least supportive, at 30 percent, and only 26 percent of those over 65 backed a UBI. Meanwhile, 66 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of independents and 72 percent of those ages 18 to 34 favored one, according to a poll conducted by the HarrisX market research firm for The Hill, a Washington news organization.2

Long Description

Besides Yang and Hughes, other Silicon Valley executives such as Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates have warned that millions of blue- and white-collar jobs, from truck drivers to accountants, will be lost because of technological change.3 Some studies back this up, including:

• A 2013 Oxford University study predicted that nearly half of all U.S. jobs would be lost to automation within the next 10 to 20 years.4

• A 2017 report by the global consulting firm McKinsey & Company found that about half of jobs could be automated with current technologies, and that maintaining full employment through 2030 “will be very challenging — matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.”5

• A January 2019 analysis by the Brookings Institution, a centrist Washington think tank, said a quarter of U.S. jobs — affecting 36 million Americans — were “highly exposed to automation” over the next few decades.6

However, some critics dispute these studies' conclusions, citing conflicting evidence about whether a “robot apocalypse” is underway. For example, an analysis led by German economist Melanie Arntz in 2017 found that only 9 percent of U.S. jobs could be completely automated. Other critics point out that the United States has overcome technological changes before, such as the shift from an agricultural to an industrial society.7

“The evidence that we're going to be facing technology-based unemployment is fairly weak,” says Stephen Nuñez, lead basic income researcher at the Jain Family Institute, a New York City nonprofit research organization. Nevertheless, he says, there are other reasons to consider a guaranteed income, such as “the precarity of middle-class households and an insufficient and ineffective social safety net.” In addition, he says, the gap between the rich and poor is widening because “wages have been sluggish for a very long time in the lower half of the income distribution.”

Indeed, that income gap in the United States is wider than it has been since the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking it in 1967. About 44 percent of U.S. workers receive median hourly wages of $10.22 ($18,000 a year), according to a November 2019 Brookings study. A 2019 survey by the Federal Reserve found that 27 percent of participants said if faced with a $400 unexpected expense, they would have to borrow money or sell something to pay for it, and 12 percent said they could not pay it at all.8

A guaranteed basic income could help with such problems, and provide benefits in a simpler, less bureaucratic way than typical social welfare programs, say Yang and other UBI proponents. Yang's proposal also would provide retraining to help displaced workers start businesses, engage in creative pursuits or care for children or aging parents.9

A UBI also could create a “trickle-up” economic boom, Yang has said. However, a 2017 study by the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank in New York City, said the stimulative impact of such proposals would depend on how they are financed.10

Having a guaranteed income can also create health benefits such as less stress, a greater sense of well-being and fewer doctor and hospital visits, researchers have found.11

“There's a real clear link between economic deprivation, scarcity and stress, and the body,” says Stacia Martin-West, a professor in the College of Social Work at the University of Tennessee, one of two investigators for the SEED project. For example, chronic economic stress can trigger high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes at younger-than-expected ages, along with anxiety and depression, she says.

New UBI pilot programs are seeking further data on these and other effects. For instance, this month the Magnolia Mother's Trust in Jackson, Miss., will start giving $1,000 a month for one year to at least 75 African American mothers living in public housing, says executive director Aisha Nyandoro. The privately funded project follows a smaller 2019 trial in which 20 mothers received $1,000 monthly, which was found to reduce their stress, help them pay their bills and finish high school.12

Meanwhile, Y Combinator, which invests in startup companies, is enrolling participants in a new basic income study, after completing two smaller pilot studies in 2018. The organization announced two years ago that it planned to provide $1,000 per month to 1,000 people in two states for up to five years, but details of the new program were not expected until this spring.13

A clinical trial led by the University of California at Irvine, called Baby's First Years, is giving low-income mothers in New York City, New Orleans, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Omaha, Neb., $333 per month ($4,000 annually) for 40 months to see how the money affects the children's neurological and socio-emotional development.14

Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang helped raise awareness of universal basic income (UBI) programs by proposing a $12,000 annual guaranteed income for all U.S. adult citizens. (Getty Images/The Boston Globe/Suzanne Kreiter)

An alternative to providing a guaranteed basic income is to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), a federal program enacted in 1975 to provide tax breaks to lower- and middle-income working parents, with smaller provisions for nonparents. In general, the EITC awards families tax credits ranging from about $3,500 for one child (in 2019) to $6,500 for three or more children, depending on income (with a $56,000 ceiling). It is “refundable,” which means if the amount of the credit is more than what is owed in federal income taxes, the taxpayer receives a check for the difference. (In other words, if the taxpayer qualifies for a $6,500 credit, but only owes $1,000 in taxes, he or she will get $5,500 back.)15

In 2018, the EITC helped 5.6 million Americans — including about 3 million children — rise out of poverty, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. It also cut the severity of poverty for another 16.5 million people.16

Lawmakers and anti-poverty activists, as well as the Economic Security Project, an organization formed in 2016 by Facebook's Hughes and two partners to support UBI programs, have proposed various measures to expand and reform the EITC, such as raising the amount of money going to childless workers, redefining “work” to include nonpaid labor such as caregiving and making payments on a monthly basis.17

Such efforts are seen as a way to provide a guaranteed income, says Natalie Foster, co-chair and co-founder of the Economic Security Project, which has proposed a package of EITC reforms called a cost-of-living refund.18 Indeed, the project has shifted from its initial “broad interest in UBI” to advocating for a guaranteed income such as the EITC, says Foster.

While a UBI would go to everyone, regardless of income, a guaranteed income program typically is limited to people of lower or moderate incomes. It establishes a minimum income level rather than giving everyone a check, Foster says, and provides “a guarantee that in America, there is an income floor you won't fall below, no matter who you are. That's really the big idea.”

Amy Castro Baker, an assistant professor of social policy and practice at the University of Pennsylvania who is helping to investigate the effects of the SEED project, welcomes a mix of approaches to help people struggling to make ends meet. “There is no silver bullet to fix where we're at with the economy and with the safety net,” she says. “We need more than one proposal to … close these gaps and deal with these issues.”

As the presidential candidates continue to highlight issues such as the growing wealth disparity and as basic income pilot projects spread across the country, some of the key questions being asked about a UBI are:

Can the United States afford to provide a universal basic income?

Most experts agree that the affordability of a UBI program depends on which program is under consideration and how it is financed.

Yang's freedom dividend has been much analyzed, with many economists and others raising concerns about the cost of giving every U.S. adult — about 254 million people, according to 2018 estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau — $12,000 a year. That would cost about $3 trillion, not counting administrative expenses.19

Yang proposed paying for the plan in several ways, including imposing a 10-percent value-added tax (similar to a national sales tax); raising taxes on the wealthy; instituting a tax on carbon emissions; bringing in greater tax revenue by boosting the economy and combining some social safety-net programs.

The Roosevelt Institute study found that if Yang's program were financed by increasing the government's debt, it would generate about $2.5 trillion in economic growth by 2025, increase employment by about 2 percent and add 4.5 to 4.7 million jobs. If it were funded through progressive income taxes, the economy would grow by only $515 billion and create about 1.1 million new jobs, the study said.20

Matt Jensen, a researcher for the conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI) think tank, says the United States already has high budget deficits and debt projected to rise in the coming years. So, adding to those with a UBI like Yang's “would seem somewhat foolhardy,” he says. Greenstein, of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, says proposals such as Yang's “would cost $20 trillion, $30 trillion, $40 trillion” over 10 years, making them “clearly dead on arrival unless they can be entirely or mostly financed.”

The Tax Foundation, a nonprofit, libertarian-leaning think tank, said Yang's projections of economic benefit were too rosy and his 10-percent value-added tax too low to cover the cost. The organization estimates the proposal would increase the budget deficit by $1.5 trillion annually.21

S.Y. Lee, Yang's communications director, said the foundation's analysis was based on “flawed assumptions,” particularly about the amount of economic growth that the extra cash in consumers' hands would trigger. Indeed, Steve Fazzari, an economist at Washington University in St. Louis, said Yang's plan would be “a massive stimulus to the economy” but that he preferred a guaranteed jobs program to a UBI. “The American dream is more about earning a decent standard of living than receiving a government grant,” he said.22

Covering everyone — the “universal” part of UBI — rather than targeting the needy adds significantly to the price tag. “I'm not a UBI guy,” said economist Paul Krugman, who added that a UBI is not politically feasible because it would be too expensive or would not adequately address social safety-net needs. He said he prefers targeted programs.23

Hillary Clinton wrote in her recent memoir, What Happened, that she tried to devise a UBI policy to recommend in her 2016 Democratic presidential run. But she abandoned the idea because “unfortunately, we couldn't make the numbers work,” Clinton wrote. “To provide a meaningful dividend each year to every citizen, you'd have to raise enormous sums of money, and that would either mean a lot of new taxes or cannibalizing other important programs.”24

Former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton discusses her book What Happened in Philadelphia in 2017. In the memoir, she wrote that she had looked into recommending a universal basic income during her 2016 presidential run but “couldn't make the numbers work.” (Getty Images/NurPhoto/Bastiaan Slabbers)

Greenstein also worries that some UBI plans would have to cut social safety-net programs to meet budget goals, hurting the poor rather than helping them. Yang has suggested keeping federal programs such as Social Security, Medicaid and Supplemental Security Insurance but eliminating “cash like” programs such as food stamps. But Greenstein says: “If you cut programs targeted on low income people and redistribute the money in equal payment amounts that go all the way up the income scale, you're increasing poverty and inequality.”

A review by economists Hilary W. Hoynes and Jesse Rothstein published by The National Bureau of Economic Research makes a similar point. “UBI would direct much larger shares of [cash] transfers to childless, nonelderly, nondisabled households than existing programs, and much more to middle-income rather than poor households,” they wrote. But creating a UBI large enough to pay higher amounts to low-income families “would be enormously expensive,” they added.25

Rather than a “big UBI,” Greenstein recommends programs that stand a better chance of becoming law in the current political environment, such as expanding the EITC or amending the child tax credit, which provides a partially refundable tax credit of up to $2,000 per eligible child.26 Greenstein says he would make the child tax credit fully refundable and provide an option for monthly payments.

Conservative and libertarian economists such as Murray have tended to favor a budget neutral UBI, which would eliminate Social Security, Medicare and other safety-net programs and use the money to send every adult $1,000 per month. An AEI analysis of such a plan found that “most people except for the very rich and very poor” would be better off, says AEI's Jensen.27

However, people over age 65 would be “in a really tough position when you take away Medicare and Social Security,” Jensen says, unless there were a well-thought-out alternative. A UBI that replaces existing safety-net programs is a massive, unnecessary reform, he says, especially “if you're taking away programs that people are counting on.”

“So, it's not that reform couldn't work and wouldn't be attractive and principled,” Jensen says. “But getting from where we are today to there would require a lot of sophisticated policymakers, and I'm not sure our Congress is capable of doing it, or whether the public has enough trust in Congress to give them the mandate.”

Should a guaranteed income be nonuniversal?

A basic income program has rarely been implemented universally, with everyone in a given population — even the well-off — receiving free money. Instead, almost every UBI trial has targeted the unemployed or those on the lower end of the earning spectrum.

California's SEED project, for example, randomly selected participants in low-income census tracts. A highly publicized 2017-18 experiment in Finland was reserved for the unemployed. Even a large new UBI project in Maricá, Brazil, which distributes a basic income to more than 40,000 people, restricts the awards to the city's poorest.28 And experiments in the late 1960s through the early '80s in Canada and in several U.S. cities only gave cash to people with incomes below a certain threshold.

One example of a truly universal income is in Alaska, where since 1982 every resident has received an annual share of the state's oil revenue. But the money — generally $1,000 to $2,000 per person per year — does not meet basic needs.29

The trans-Alaska pipeline was constructed in the early 1960s, a project that enabled Alaskans to receive annual payments of $1,000 to $2,000 as their share of the proceeds from the sale of oil that the pipeline transported from the North Slope to the southern port of Valdez. (Getty Images/Archive Photos/Harvey Meston)

Researchers also have studied the impact of other universal payments from revenue-producing resources, such as casino profits shared by members of some Native American tribes. But, as in Alaska, the amounts usually do not cover basic needs, and the number of recipients is relatively small. For instance, each member of the Eastern Band of Cherokees receives casino dividends of about $4,000 a year, well below poverty guidelines.30

It is difficult to predict the impact of giving every American adult $12,000 a year, as Yang proposes. Under the plan, higher-earning people who receive the money likely would not actually keep it, but would pay the money back through higher taxes. For example, under his proposed value-added tax, “a wealthy person will likely pay more into the system than he or she gets out of” the UBI, according to Yang's website.31 Yang also recommended funding the plan by raising capital gains taxes, closing the “carried interest” loophole that taxes the income of many private-equity and hedge fund employees at a lower rate and raising the income ceiling for Social Security taxes.

One benefit of universality, Yang and other proponents say, is that giving everyone money is simple and easy to administer — unlike welfare programs that typically have long applications, means tests and other criteria and require ongoing monitoring. Creating a truly universal program also is meant to remove any welfare-related stigma and the “welfare trap,” in which recipients need to keep work income below a certain amount in order to qualify for benefits.32

Yet, giving everyone a check requires that the government first send money and then recoup it through taxes, which is not particularly efficient or simple, some observers say. “I think a lot of basic income supporters may oversell the simplicity in that sense. It's simpler in some ways, but not that way,” says Michael Lewis, a professor of social work at Hunter College in New York and a board member of U.S. Basic Income Guarantee, a network that provides resources for people interested in basic income. (See Pro/Con.)

Another reason to maintain universality is social cohesion, says Irv Garfinkel, a professor of contemporary urban problems at Columbia University. If everyone receives benefits it can reduce resentment and division between beneficiaries and other taxpayers, he says. “Universal programs enforce the notion that we are all in this together.”

Yang's proposal also did not address what happens to noncitizens. The American Enterprise Institute's Jensen notes that 7 percent of the population are noncitizens, including those with green cards and undocumented workers who pay taxes.

“They're going to be essentially a second-class population,” says Jensen, “and what's that going to do to our cohesion?”

Microsoft co-founder Gates said that, for now, benefits should be aimed at the needy, not provided universally.

“Over time, countries will be rich enough” to provide a universal basic income, Gates said. “However, we still have a lot of work that should be done — helping older people, helping kids with special needs, having more adults helping in education.”33

Would a UBI discourage people from working?

One of the most common arguments raised against guaranteed income plans is that they would discourage people from getting a job.

“You never want to pay people not to work,” former Reagan administration economist Art Laffer told Fox Business News. “Otherwise you're going to get a lot of nonworkers, and you're going to get the growth stopped, and you're going to get the economy in the tank.”34

Similarly, Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University in Virginia, argued that it is “common sense” that there would be “a large fall in work effort. People may not immediately quit their jobs, but this provides a great relief from the need to find a job when you don't have one.”35

Oren Cass, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank in New York City, wrote that a guaranteed income would “make work optional and render self-reliance moot. An underclass dependent on government handouts would no longer be one of society's greatest challenges but instead would be recast as one of its proudest achievements.”36

But UBI proponents say research disproves those assumptions, and that traditional welfare programs — not universal basic incomes — discourage work.

Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a nonpartisan anti-poverty think tank based in Washington and London, said studies show that basic income experiments “may not create dependency and may help lift people up and out of poverty.” Recipients of such cash “use it to buy goods and services that improve their lives and increase their future earnings potential.”37

Those who do reduce their work hours during UBI experiments tend to be students or parents of young children, the studies show.

Ioana Marinescu, a labor economist at the University of Pennsylvania who has studied unconditional cash-transfer experiments in North America, has found that if employment drops, it is usually minimal. For example, in negative income tax experiments that ran from 1970 to 1980 in Seattle and Denver, the participants' employment rate dropped just 4 percent, she said.38 (A negative income tax is a type of basic income that uses the federal tax system to subsidize those who fall below a certain income level, such as the poverty line. It operates like a reverse income tax — paying people who earn less than a particular amount, essentially creating a floor below which their income cannot fall.)

However, Marinescu found that people in negative income tax experiments had an incentive to underreport their income, because if they said they made less than the target amount, the government would pay them more. If they made more income, the government paid them less. This skewed some of the studies, because it appeared people were earning — and working — less than they may have been.

“Our fear that people will quit their jobs en masse if provided with cash for free is false and misguided,” wrote Marinescu in a report for the Roosevelt Institute.39

However, people likely will stop working if their income levels are high enough. The 500 members of the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Tribe of Minnesota, which share the profits from their casino and resort, each received $84,000 a month in 2012, resulting in 99.2 percent unemployment, according to a tribal official.40

Basic income programs, of course, do not provide anywhere near that amount.

Castro Baker, the SEED project investigator, argues that even if some people, such as parents of small children, work a little less when given a basic income, that is not necessarily a bad thing, either for the person or society.

“Do we see people reducing the number of hours that they're doing work that's not good for their health and not good for their families? Yes,” she says. “But that's a positive outcome. We don't want moms and dads in our communities working two and three jobs for Uber, Lyft and DoorDash. That's not healthy — that doesn't make you show up as a full partner, parent or community member.”

Welfare-state policies make recipients less likely to hold jobs, not basic income programs, Yang argues. “Many current welfare programs take away benefits when recipients find work, sometimes leaving them financially worse off than before they were employed,” his website said. Anti-poverty advocates describe a “welfare cliff,” in which people on public assistance who get jobs lose more benefits than the income their job provides, causing them to quit those jobs.41

Jim Pugh, co-founder of the Universal Income Project, a nonprofit advocacy group for basic income, said studies have shown that very few people receiving basic income drop out of the workforce.

“Some experiments have even found that basic income increases entrepreneurship, which would ultimately lead to more employment down the road,” said Pugh. “Most people want to contribute to society. If we can provide them with basic financial security, they'll find a way to do it.”42

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Background

Evolving Theories

Sir Thomas More, a Renaissance humanist and social philosopher in England during a time of upheaval in the country's feudal system, was one of the first to call for a guaranteed income. In previous centuries, lords operated open-field systems in which serfs were allowed to live on the land as subsistence farmers. Starting in the late 1400s, however, the gentry began enclosing their land and using it for profit-making ventures, such as raising sheep. Serfs were hired for these tasks, but the money did not support them and their families, and many became vagrants who stole food to survive.43

In response, thieves were hanged — a stark punishment that More protested in his landmark work of philosophical fiction, Utopia. His protagonist criticizes this harsh treatment, saying, “It would be far more to the point to provide everyone with some means of livelihood, so that nobody's under the frightful necessity of becoming first a thief and then a corpse.” More also called for “provisions by which every man might be put in a method how to live.”44

Humanists eventually began viewing aid to the poor as a public duty rather than the responsibility of churches or philanthropists, and the idea of public assistance, in the form of a minimum income, emerged. More's friend, the influential Spanish humanist Juan Luis Vives, worked out a detailed plan for such public assistance in which recipients should be required to work, outlined in a 1526 memoir, On the Subvention of Paupers. 45

Eventually, the Elizabethan poor laws of 1597-1601 required municipalities to tax wealthy parishioners in order to aid the needy, and able-bodied recipients over age 14 were required to work. This included potential forced labor on ships or in prisons. The system continued for the next 200 years and was copied by the North American colonies.46

In 1797, Thomas Paine argued in the pamphlet “Agrarian Justice” that land is a common asset and that landowners should pay “ground rent,” or a portion of their earnings from cultivating the land, as compensation to the community at large. (Getty Images/DeAgostini)

In the United States, political theorist and pamphleteer Thomas Paine was the first to propose a basic income, as people were beginning to leave farms for factory work during the Industrial Revolution. Paine argued in the 1797 pamphlet “Agrarian Justice” that land is a common asset and landowners should pay “ground rent,” or a portion of their earnings from cultivating the land, as compensation to the community at large. From this fund, Paine proposed, 15 pounds (worth about $2,000 in today's dollars) should be paid yearly to every individual at age 21, and 10 pounds ($1,348) annually starting at age 50.47

Shortly before Paine made his argument, a similar poverty-alleviation program was suggested in Europe by Paine's close friend Antoine Caritat, the Marquis of Condorcet. Caritat, a journalist imprisoned and sentenced to death during the French Revolution, called for social insurance to reduce poverty and inequality in a text published posthumously in 1795.48

Also in 1795, a program in the English village of Speenhamland supplemented household incomes that were below the cost of living, so that all could earn a basic income. Over the next 40 years, the village's population nearly doubled, which preacher and economist Thomas Malthus blamed on irresponsible reproduction encouraged by subsidies to the poor. Another economist critical of the project, David Ricardo, said people who saved and worked hard were supporting others who did not, draining prosperity and keeping the poor in a poverty trap. The Speenhamland program was ended in 1834.49

However, modern researchers have found that the critiques of Ricardo, Malthus and others were faulty, and that the program was in fact a success.50

In 1836, French writer Charles Fourier argued that the Earth is a resource owned equally by its inhabitants and said landless citizens should be compensated for “the loss of direct access to natural resources.” The amount of compensation? A “sixth-class hotel room” and three meals daily.51

Fourier's ideas influenced author Joseph Charlier, who wrote in 1848 that every citizen should have the right to periodic payments based on the rental value of all real estate, no matter the citizen's income, and that the amount should be “a short allowance” or minimum subsistence level.52

UBI and the Depression

In 1918, as World War I was winding down, Britain suffered from widespread postwar poverty. Labour Party member and Quaker Dennis Milner pushed for a weekly basic income for all British citizens — a “state bonus” of 20 percent of the per capita GDP. However, Milner's proposal was rejected by his party in 1921.53

Bertrand Russell, a British mathematician and philosopher, also called for a UBI “sufficient for necessaries.” In his book Roads to Freedom, Russell argued that people have a fundamental right to income, regardless of whether they choose to work or not. Economist James Meade, another British advocate for a basic income, proposed a “social dividend” funded from the return on publicly owned assets.54

In the United States, the Great Depression, which followed the stock market crash in the fall of 1929, gave rise to talk of providing a basic income to help the many jobless citizens. President Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933, and within his first 100 days proposed an array of New Deal programs to, among other objectives, shore up the banks, provide jobs and guarantee workers' rights to unionize.55

In 1934, Huey Long, a populist Democratic senator from Louisiana, proposed a “Share Our Wealth” program that would tax the rich and give every “deserving family” an annual income of at least $2,000 (about $39,000 in today's dollars).56 Long was assassinated in 1935, and his plan died with him.

A 1935 poster introduces the Social Security program for U.S. citizens ages 65 and older. Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt initiated the program during the Depression to provide a guaranteed retirement income. (Getty Images/GraphicArts)

Also in 1934, as the country continued to suffer from the effects of the Depression, Frances Everett Townsend, an unemployed 66-year-old physician from Long Beach, Calif., proposed a guaranteed income program. The Townsend Plan would have required the federal government to send $200 a month — about $3,700 today — to Americans age 60 and up who stopped working, which Townsend believed would jump-start the economy and open up jobs for younger people.57

In 1935, Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act, which included, in addition to guaranteed retirement income for those over 65, state grants for old-age assistance, unemployment insurance, medical care and aid to dependent children (intended to help widows stay home with their children).58

Meanwhile, support for the Townsend Plan grew. By early 1936, about 2 million Americans — mostly older people — had joined about 8,000 “Townsend clubs” around the country to lobby for the plan's passage. In 1938, more New Deal reforms were enacted, including the first federal minimum wage — 25 cents an hour — plus overtime pay requirements.59

Roosevelt dismissed the Townsend Plan as a “shortcut to utopia,” and Congress rejected it in June 1939. However, Congress then increased Social Security benefits and sped up payments, so checks could start arriving in 1940, two years ahead of schedule. Benefits were also extended to survivors, including widows.60

In 1953 Oxford economist G.D.H. Cole coined the term “basic income,” when he advocated a “social dividend” along with a planned economy.61

Social Upheaval

The 1960s was an era of disruption on many fronts in the United States, with protesters and reformers fighting against, among other things, poverty, racism and social injustice.

In 1962, libertarian economist Milton Friedman recommended in his book Capitalism and Freedom that the United States adopt a negative income tax as a more efficient and simpler way to provide aid to the needy than Roosevelt's New Deal programs. He suggested that the government give people 50 percent of the difference between their income and the lowest taxable income. For instance, if the lowest taxable annual income was $3,000 and someone made $2,000, the government would give that taxpayer $500 (half of $1,000). If the taxpayer made nothing, he or she would get $1,500.62

Also that year, the Aid to Dependent Children program was expanded to include single mothers as well as widows. Renamed Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), it became the nation's primary welfare program.

Civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. also fought for a basic income. In his 1967 book Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community? King favored cash transfers rather than non-cash programs, such as food stamps or housing vouchers. “I am now convinced that the simplest approach will prove to be the most effective,” he wrote. “The solution to poverty is to abolish it directly by a now widely discussed measure: the guaranteed income.”63

In 1968 more than 1,000 economists, including Harvard University's John Kenneth Galbraith, signed a petition urging Congress to adopt “a system of income guarantees and supplements.”64

In 1969, newly elected Republican President Richard M. Nixon worked with a Democratic adviser, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, to develop a guaranteed income plan that would pay an impoverished family of four $1,600 annually (about $11,600 today). But the day Nixon was to announce his plan, an aide briefed him on the alleged negative effects that the 150-year-old Speenhamland program in Britain reportedly had on workers. Nixon added work incentives to his proposal.

Nixon introduced his amended proposal, the Family Assistance Plan, in August 1969. The House adopted it eight months later, but the Senate defeated it in 1970 and again in 1972.65

President Richard M. Nixon (at left), a Republican, and his adviser Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a Democrat, formulated a guaranteed income plan that would have provided about $11,600 annually in today's dollars to a low-income family of four. The plan, which included work incentives, failed to pass the Senate, twice. (Getty Images/New York Daily News Archive/John Duprey)

Also in 1972, Democratic Sen. George McGovern in his unsuccessful campaign for president proposed a $1,000 “demogrant” to those without any income ($4,000 a year for a family of four); the amount would change, depending on earnings, and phase out completely for families with annual incomes of $12,000. McGovern dropped the idea in August after opposition from political opponents, and switched to a negative income tax proposal.66

Meanwhile, federal experiments with the negative income tax continued from 1968 to 1980 in states such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa and North Carolina, and in cities such as Seattle, Denver and Gary, Ind. Canada also ran a similar experiment, called Mincome, in the town of Dauphin in Manitoba.67

Initial results appeared to indicate that free money — especially in Seattle and Denver — led people to work significantly less and be more likely to divorce. The results alarmed Moynihan, now a senator from New York, and he recanted his support, calling a guaranteed income “calamitous” in a letter to the conservative National Review magazine.68

In 1977, Democratic President Jimmy Carter proposed a negative income tax program for families, but it never made it to Congress, and discussion of a guaranteed income faded away.69

Decades later, researchers such as the University of Pennsylvania's Marinescu would re-examine the data from the negative income tax experiments, questioning the earlier findings and noting that a guaranteed income had created better mental health, less stress and improved family relationships, not higher divorce rates.70

Also in the 1970s, after the trans-Alaska pipeline was built to transport oil from the state's North Slope to the southern port of Valdez, officials set up a program to share part of the state's oil revenues with state residents. The Alaska Permanent Fund began disbursing the money in 1982, with checks averaging $1,000 to $2,000 a year. In 2019, about 631,000 residents received $1,606 each.71

In place of the negative income tax, politicians turned to policies such as the Earned Income Tax Credit to provide additional money to low-income families. Originally proposed as a temporary “work bonus” by Sen. Russell B. Long, a Louisiana Democrat and Huey Long's son, the tax credit was designed to supplement wages of low-income workers, encourage work and address concerns over rising welfare rolls. Long's plan was renamed the EITC and signed into law in 1975 by Republican President Gerald Ford.72

Over the ensuing 40 years, the EITC was expanded in scope and influence, and has been supported by both Republicans and Democrats. Republican President Ronald Reagan, for example, expanded it as part of a tax reform package he signed in 1986.73

“The EITC was really, really tiny through the mid-1980s,” says Greenstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. But in the ensuing decades, it grew into “one of the most important anti-poverty programs in the country today,” and has enjoyed broad bipartisan support.

Share the Wealth

During the Reagan and later the Clinton administrations, welfare reform measures were instituted to address problems perceived as abuse of current programs. Critics feared the AFDC program, for instance, discouraged mothers from getting jobs and promoted out-of-wedlock births because additional benefits could be claimed per child, and benefits supported only single-parent households.74

In 1996, Democratic President Bill Clinton signed a bill imposing work requirements on AFDC recipients and limiting benefits to five years over a lifetime. The program was renamed Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).75 “We switched over to a heavily work-conditioned social safety net with the change from AFDC to TANF,” says Nuñez at the Jain Family Institute.

After this switch, the share of low-income families receiving cash assistance fell from 68 of every 100 poor families in 1996 to 23 by 2016. In at least 16 states, only 10 percent or less of poor families receive assistance, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.76

In 1987, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Native American tribes could operate gambling facilities on reservations without state interference; the following year, Congress allowed tribes to be the “sole owner and primary beneficiary” of gaming activities on tribal lands. Since then, casino profits in some Native American communities have been shared among tribal members, demonstrating what a difference cash can make. In 1997, for instance, North Carolina's Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians began distributing about $4,000 to $6,000 per person annually, resulting in a 50 percent reduction in poverty, declining crime rates, less drug and alcohol abuse among young people and higher high school graduation rates.77

During the 2007-09 recession, when unemployment rose and more people needed social services, libertarian Murray called for a $10,000 UBI per adult over the age of 21 to replace all safety-net services as a way to improve efficiency and effectiveness, but the measure was never adopted.78

In an editorial about Murray's book on the topic, In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State, when it was first published in 2006 (an updated version was released in 2016), The Atlantic magazine noted that even Murray agreed his plan — which would abolish Social Security and require a transition period for seniors to receive benefits — “is politically impossible right now.” The proposal would also leave a budget shortfall of $355 billion per year, plus other transition costs, the editorial argued; a gap that Murray claimed would “disappear on its own in a few years,” but which would be “challenging” for the government to cover.79

As the economy recovered over the past decade, the poverty rate gradually improved, but average wages have been slow to rise and the disparity between the rich and the poor soared. The top 1 percent of U.S. earners averaged more than 39 times more income than the bottom 90 percent in 2018, according to a recent analysis by University of California, Berkeley, economist Emmanuel Saez, and the top 1 percent's share of income doubled from 1968 to 2018, while the percentage of those in poverty stayed the same.80

Alaska, which has no state income or sales tax and is heavily dependent on oil revenue, has faced budget woes due to declining oil prices. Legislators have been forced to cut services, such as education expenditures, and reduced the Permanent Fund dividend payments during 2016-18 — a move so unpopular that it partially led to Gov. Bill Walker declining to run for another term. But his successor, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who campaigned on raising the checks to $4,000, could not convince legislators to raise the 2019 reimbursement. He had sought $3,000, based on a 1982 state law governing dividend amounts, but lawmakers voted for $1,600. Dunleavy is trying again this year to raise the amount to $3,000.81

A 2018 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that the annual oil revenues disbursed to Alaskans had not led to more full-time jobs, but that part-time unemployment rose 17 percent.82

Globally, interest in guaranteed income programs has grown in the past decade, with projects from Namibia to the Netherlands and from Scotland to Spain. Many of the programs have achieved some success, while others have had mixed results. New projects are ongoing in Brazil and Germany.83 (See Short Feature.)

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Current Situation

State and Local Actions

In Massachusetts, 100 residents could get $1,000 per month for three years as part of a universal basic income pilot being studied by a state legislative committee. If the pilot is approved, participants would have to live in one of three economically diverse cities or towns, including at least one rural community.84

In New York, another UBI pilot, introduced by Democratic state Sen. Kevin Parker last September, is pending in committee. Parker's bill would enroll 10,000 people in a two-year program in which they each would receive $7,200 per year, with a study due a year after the program ends.85

Some states are proposing financing a UBI by requiring companies to share the wealth created from mining citizens' digital data. In New York, for instance, the Senate Budget and Revenue Committee is reviewing a “data dividend” bill proposed by Democratic state Sen. David Carlucci. It would levy a 5 percent tax on the gross income of every company that uses New Yorkers' personal data, and the state would issue an annual dividend check to taxpayers with the proceeds.86

Another New Yorker, congressional candidate James Felton Keith, is proposing paying all adults $1,000 per month as a UBI funded through a “corporate productivity dividend,” reflecting his view that citizens should benefit from corporations that earn value from common resources, such as digital data.87

Similarly, California Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2019 announced he was considering requiring tech companies such as Google and Facebook to pay a data dividend and assigned a team of data scientists and legislators to determine how this might work. To date, nothing has been presented to the Legislature.88

A UBI is also on the political agenda in Maine, where an 11-member committee of lawmakers and citizens is studying its feasibility and examining the efficacy of other options, such as a strengthened EITC, a negative income tax and other direct-cash benefit programs. The committee must report its findings by this November, which will be considered by the Legislature in 2021.89

In Hawaii, where the Legislature voted in 2017 to explore UBI options, legislators are focusing on expanding the state version of the federal EITC, says state Rep. Chris Lee, sponsor of the UBI bill. Nearly 30 states and Washington, D.C., have their own EITC programs, which typically award residents benefits that are a percentage of what the recipient would earn from the federal EITC benefit.

In January, Hawaii state legislators introduced a proposal to make the state's EITC refundable, providing recipients who qualify a cash refund of up to $380 annually.90 While the measure is being considered, Hawaii has put the idea of running a UBI pilot on hold, says Lee.

For now, Hawaii — which has the nation's 13th-highest poverty rate — is taking steps to help those in need via the proposed EITC expansion and by searching for solutions for those not covered by the state EITC, says Lee. “We're looking at all kinds of things — not just to fund basic income.”91

Hawaii is just one of several states considering expanding their state EITC benefits. Ten states expanded such programs last year, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. For example, Ohio, Oregon, Minnesota and New Mexico raised EITC payments; California, Maryland, Iowa and Virginia provided funding for EITC outreach and tax preparation help; and Maine provided greater benefits for childless workers.92

This year, other states with EITC bills pending include:

• Rhode Island, which is considering raising its EITC from 15 percent of the federal award to 20 percent;

• Maryland, which is reviewing a measure to expand the state's EITC to provide more benefits to childless workers;

• New Jersey, which is considering lowering the EITC eligibility age from 25 to 18 (as proposed by some lawmakers) or 21 (as proposed in Gov. Phil Murphy's fiscal year 2021 budget);

• West Virginia, which is debating whether to enact a refundable EITC credit; and

• Illinois, which is considering raising its EITC to 19 percent of the federal credit in 2022 and 20 percent in 2023.93

One state is reversing this trend. Utah passed a tax reform bill in December that included a new, refundable EITC, but the law was repealed in January after backlash against another part of the reform package (a grocery tax).94

Some cities also are considering creating municipal EITC programs. Chicago may consider one in 2021. In February 2019, a city task force issued a report calling for an expanded EITC and a UBI pilot program that would pay 1,000 Chicagoans $1,000 per month for 18 months.95

Castro Baker, of the SEED project, finds it “exciting” that cities are getting involved. “We're seeing a ton of interest at the urban level across the country,” she says. “We anticipate there being a range of additional pilots … launched across different metro areas.”

Federal Actions

Several bills pending in Congress address the basic income concept. One of the most prominent is the Building Our Opportunities to Survive and Thrive (Boost) Act, introduced in June 2019 by Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat from Michigan. It calls for a basic income of $3,000 to $6,000 for families making from zero to $99,999, with benefits phasing out as income rises.96

U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., speaks during a June event in Washington to promote her Boost Act, which would pay $3,000 to $6,000 a year, depending on income, to families making less than $99,999 annually. (Getty Images/LightRocket/SOPA Images/Michael Brochstein)

The measure would expand on the Lift the Middle Class Act, introduced by Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., in 2018. Harris' proposal would provide a refundable federal tax credit to supplement other tax credits such as the EITC for those with annual incomes starting at $2,400. The benefit is aimed at families earning less than $100,000 or single filers making under $50,000 annually.97

Sen. Mitt Romney, a Republican from Utah, and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, a former Democratic presidential candidate, co-sponsored a bill in December that would modify the current child income tax credit. The measure would provide parents — regardless of income — $1,500 per year for each child under age 6 and $1,000 for those ages 6 to 17. Parents could also receive another $1,000 per child, depending on income. The additional benefit would be paid for with tax increases on the wealthy.98

Other congressional proposals would reform the EITC. The Economic Mobility Act of 2019, introduced in June of last year, would temporarily (for tax years 2019 and 2020) increase the credit for childless taxpayers from $529 to $1,464, expand eligibility to younger and older workers and make the credit fully refundable, among other provisions. It is pending in the House.99

A similar Senate bill, introduced in April 2019 by Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio with 45 Democratic co-sponsors, is pending in the Senate Finance Committee. However, chances of action are uncertain; in February, Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Senate would not consider 395 House-passed bills sitting on his desk.100

Experts say that if the Democrats win control of Congress in the November elections, it could alter the future of a variety of policies, including basic income, the EITC, child tax credits and other programs.

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Outlook

Double-Edged Sword?

Although he has left the presidential race, Yang said he plans to “keep pushing the ideas of this campaign forward” and will endorse whichever candidate supports a universal basic income. “I don't think this idea is going to go away,” he said.101

Other Democratic presidential contenders have expressed some interest in a UBI. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who dropped out of the race on Feb. 29, said he thought it was “worth taking seriously,” noting that giving families cash can be “the simplest and most cost-effective and efficient way” to help people. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls it an option to consider, but prefers other measures to raise income, such as hiking Social Security benefits.102

Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden have said they oppose a UBI. Sanders said he preferred a federal jobs guarantee. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg — both of whom dropped out of the race in recent days — also opposed a UBI.103

Greenstein, of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, doubts Americans will see a Yang-type universal basic income in place “in the next 20 years” due to the high costs and the risk that it could backfire and “make low income people worse off.”

Lewis, of the U.S. Basic Income Guarantee network, would like to see UBI pilot projects gradually increased in size and scope to determine their effectiveness before the federal government launches into them on a large scale, which he calls “kind of a plunge into the unknown.” Instead, he says, “I would start very small and then see what happened to work incentives and labor supply.”

Some guaranteed income supporters who support modifying the EITC or federal child care credits do not rule out a universal basic income program. “We're responding to the existing economic needs right now,” says Martin-West, of the SEED project. “As we move forward, we're going to see more universality in testing.”

In the meantime, Greenstein worries that efforts to remove the EITC's work requirements could undermine its bipartisan support, turning a popular program that has lifted millions out of poverty into a political football. “My fear is that if we extend the EITC to people without earnings, like students and caregivers, this could lead to strong Republican and conservative opposition,” Greenstein says. “Having been in the trenches for 40 years trying to expand anti-poverty programs, I'm just really nervous about the political fallout.”

Experts say if projections of automation-induced job losses prove true over the next decade, UBI policies could be viewed differently. Support for them could also change as more young people reach voting age, they say.

Some worry that Yang's impact on the UBI movement has been a double-edged sword — enticing people who may not have heard about the concept but turning off those who do not particularly like his version of it. If voters or policymakers equate UBI with Yang's proposal, they may reject UBI altogether, warned the Jain Family Institute's Nuñez.

Such a rejection would be premature, he says, noting: “You can certainly find fault in a particular formulation, but still think the idea itself has promise and that it's worth pursuing.”

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Pro/Con

Should the United States adopt a UBI policy?

Pro Michael Lewis Professor of Social Work, Hunter College, and Co-Founder and Board Member, U.S. Basic Income Guarantee Inc. Written for CQ Researcher, March 2020 As someone who has advocated a universal basic income (UBI) for about two decades, I'm thrilled that it is finally getting attention. However, I often qualify my support by saying it is “support in principle.” The main reason I'm drawn to a universal basic income is its potential to enhance the power of workers in their dealings with employers. When it comes to bargaining over hiring and working conditions, employers have the upper hand, because most workers need a job to survive. Whether a UBI would empower workers, of course, depends on the amount of money provided. If that amount were large enough to ensure survival without one having to work (or work as much), this would shift employer/employee power relations. Potential employees would have more leeway to reject wages or work conditions they didn't like because they wouldn't need a job or two to survive. Of course, people probably want more than mere survival, so this shift in power would be relative. But a shift there would be. Those working for bosses who paid them less than they thought they deserved, or who felt demeaned, sexually exploited or abused in some other way would be able to say, “Take this job and shove it.” I've read that some people oppose a basic income because it would make it easier for employers to exploit workers — the opposite of what I am claiming. They contend that if employers knew workers could survive without jobs, they would have more leeway to lower wages. Because workers wouldn't need wages to survive, lower wages wouldn't bother them that much. There's some truth to this. If people could survive without having to work, some would choose to work in low wage jobs. They would do so out of a belief that such jobs offered nonpecuniary benefits that offset the low wages. Such benefits would include the opportunity to obtain a certain type of work experience, social networking opportunities, the chance to work for an organization fighting for a cause one believes in, etc. But there's a world of difference between 1) choosing a low wage job, once your survival needs are met, in order to obtain nonpecuniary benefits and 2) “choosing” one you don't really want but need to survive. One choice is on your terms, the other on your employer's. A basic income could make that world of difference. That's why I support it.

Con David R. Henderson Professor of Economics, Naval Postgraduate School, and Research Fellow, Hoover Institution. Written for CQ Researcher, March 2020 There are two major problems with a UBI. First, it would dramatically expand the size of the federal government and require a huge increase in taxes. Second, it would dramatically reduce the incentive to work for millions and possibly tens of millions of people not currently on welfare. A UBI of $12,000 for all U.S. citizens over 18, such as former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang proposed, would raise federal spending by at least $2.6 trillion annually. U.S. government spending for fiscal 2019 was about $4.53 trillion. To pay for the UBI without increasing our $1 trillion federal budget deficit would mean raising taxes by 73 percent. Yang proposed paying for it with a value-added or consumption tax, but consumption spending is about $13 trillion annually, so to raise $2.6 trillion, you would need a 20 percent tax rate, not the 10 percent he proposed. However, if taxes were raised people would cut back on consumption, so you would need an even higher tax rate. Plus, the tax would discourage production, reducing the revenue generated by the federal income tax, Social Security and Medicare taxes and the corporate income tax. So, the feds would need to raise all those tax rates, as well. Some libertarian advocates of a UBI would cut the cost by eliminating several welfare programs, such as Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, food stamps, Medicaid and housing subsidies. But even if all means-tested welfare programs were eliminated, funding a Yang-style program would still take another $1.3 trillion in federal spending — which in 2019 would have meant raising tax revenue by at least 36 percent. Higher taxes reduce the incentive to work. So would a UBI, which would create even more of a welfare culture than we have now. Imagine four able-bodied college buddies who each get $12,000 a year from the federal government forever. There are many places where they could rent a three- or four-bedroom house for $1,500 a month ($18,000 a year), leaving $30,000 for food, cable and various amenities. The UBI could easily postpone their becoming responsible adults for five years or more. A UBI is a very bad idea. The government can help people more effectively in other ways, such as by eliminating licensing requirements that make it costly to engage in hundreds of occupations. That alone would help potentially millions of poor and near-poor people climb the ladder to economic success.

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Short Features

Stern: A Contingency Plan for Technology-Induced Job Loss

Andy Stern, a senior fellow at the Economic Security Project, is the former head of the Service Employees International Union and author of the 2016 book, Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream. Former Democratic presidential contender Andrew Yang says he based his “freedom dividend” proposal on the framework Stern laid out. We spoke with Stern recently about the universal basic income (UBI) concept.

Q: How important is the universal aspect, given that almost all of the programs testing basic income today condition participation on being low-income or unemployed?

A: The question is how not to turn it into a welfare program, because once we turn everything into a welfare program, like food stamps or Medicaid, we talk about work requirements, we start to talk about drug testing. I just worry that when we turn things into welfare programs, we all of a sudden begin to treat people who have less power and less standing as undeserving and, therefore, you know, the state needs to intervene and create moral or other tests.

Q: Some people question why you would give wealthy people a UBI payment. Doesn't that make the program more costly?

A: It's always irritating to me that when we finally talk about giving people who need it money, the reason we object is because people who are already getting an excess amount of tax breaks, you know, are going to get it, too — rather than say why don't we just change what they're getting? I agree that Bill Gates doesn't need $12,000. I also agree that Amazon doesn't need to pay zero taxes, or Bill Gates doesn't need to get a break for his real estate or sheltering money or giving it all to philanthropy. So I do think we need to figure out a way to not necessarily raise taxes but rearrange taxes.

Q: What would be a metric for success for UBI? In the Finland pilot that ended, some headlines say it was a failure because employment didn't increase, but there were other benefits to people, such as being less stressed. What are the goals for a UBI?

A: The goal in the end is that Americans are more secure. I think we need an Alaska-type test that's universal, at least in a state, and that's robust enough to measure what people think are the potential negative consequences, like gambling, drinking, drugs, idleness — whatever you're worried about — versus the potential positive consequences of economic security and educational attainment and stability of households and people taking time off to raise their kids and general happiness. So, I think we have lots of indications of what can happen, but somehow we're going to have to figure out how to do a test that's not 1,000 people here or 5,000 people there, but that's big enough to determine answers to some of these questions. And I think peoples' personal economic sense of security and their mental health, their ability to spend time with their kids, are all incredibly important metrics in any society to evaluate a policy by.

Q: In your book, you called for a UBI in large part because of coming job losses due to automation, but some critics have questioned the evidence for this. Have you changed your mind about why a UBI is needed?

A: Here's what I say to people. Our military does scenario planning to the point that if [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un transports a rocket from one part of the country to another, there are various contingency plans of what they're going to do. Same with the coronavirus. The hospitals are preparing themselves because they know the possibilities. I don't understand when there's such a potential possibility of job displacement why we are so averse to setting up some kind of contingency planning like they would for the coronavirus. It's incredibly potentially harmful, and there is a reasonable possibility it will happen. I don't understand why we can't create contingencies that say if the unemployment rate as a result of technological change anywhere reaches a certain level, here are our options.

Andy Stern, a senior fellow at the Economic Security Project and a former president of the Service Employees International Union, says a universal basic income would make Americans more secure. (Getty Images/The Denver Post/Joe Amon)

Q: You refer in your book to the structural problems in the U.S. system that make UBI necessary. Can you explain that further?

A: There have been three ways we've tried to raise standards of living in our country — through the unions, which is an enterprise workplace way to redistribute success within a company; the government, with things like the minimum wage and the earned income tax credit; and the market. The market, after all these years, and now supposedly with the greatest economy of all time, has not really significantly raised workers' wages, and has distributed success to just a handful of people. Unions have been reduced in power dramatically, and the government is actually intervening to increase inequality. So we have these three structural problems, which have been America's answer to how we raise the floor or provide security. Universal basic income at least guarantees that there is a minimum level of redistribution.

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Targeted UBI Projects Span the Globe

Trials of universal basic income (UBI) programs — large and small — have been conducted across the globe in recent years, with mixed results. None was fully universal in nature: Instead of providing money to an entire population, regardless of economic circumstance, they targeted specific communities, such as the poor, unemployed or the young.

Here are some notable examples:

Maricá, Brazil — In one of the largest UBI programs yet, more than 42,000 people — more than a quarter of the population in this Rio de Janeiro suburb — started receiving monthly payments from the government in December, says Halah Ahmad, communications specialist for the Jain Family Institute, a New York social and economic research firm that is studying the program. The money, largely funded from oil royalties, is expected to be awarded indefinitely, rather than as part of a short-term experiment.1

Recipients will receive the equivalent of about $64 a month, which amounts to about three-quarters of the country's poverty income level. Recipients must have lived in Maricá for at least three years and make no more than three times the Brazilian minimum wage. The money, which will be paid in a local digital currency, can be spent as recipients see fit, but they must spend it in Maricá so it benefits the local economy.2

Because of the project's size, it is expected to provide researchers with insight into how a UBI works on a large scale. “Because it's just a huge number of people, we can actually start seeing macroeconomic effects on wages and prices,” says Stephen Nuñez, the lead basic income researcher at Jain.

Gyeonggi Province, South Korea — The Youth Basic Income pilot project in the region that surrounds Seoul provides every 24-year-old — about 170,000 people — the equivalent of $833 a year, split into quarterly payments. One aim of the project, which began last April, is to spark the local economy, since the money can only be used to purchase local goods and services.3

An early recipient, Ahn Hyo-bin, said that although the money is not enough to live on, “it helps me feel more stable emotionally.” He uses most of the funds to buy food.4

The program was started in 2016 in a city in Seongnam province by its mayor, Lee Jae-myung. He later became governor of Gyeonggi province. The program is restricted to 24-year-olds partly because they “are excluded from the social safety net [as they are] in the process of entering the labor force,” said Yoo Young-seong, a senior research fellow at the Gyeonggi Research Institute. “If it turns out to be effective, we would be able to expand the program to other age groups or nationwide.”5

Ontario, Canada — This much-heralded, large-scale guaranteed income program ended abruptly last year, cut short after a conservative provincial administration took office — two years before the project was to end and before its impact could be assessed.

The $150 million project had begun in 2018, making monthly payments to 4,000 lower-income people in three cities — Hamilton, Thunder Bay and Lindsay. Singles received up to $17,000 (just under $13,000 U.S.) a year and couples received up to $24,027 (about $17,900 U.S.). Those with disabilities received up to an additional $6,000 ($4,466 U.S.). Payments were reduced if recipients earned outside income. The program aimed to see how the money affected physical and mental health, food insecurity and other effects of poverty.6

But in July of that year, Ontario's new premier, Doug Ford, a member of the Progressive Conservative Party, pulled the plug on the program, citing cost concerns. His administration estimated that, if expanded provincewide, the program would cost $17 billion a year. “The best way to help people out of poverty is something called a job,” Ford said.7

In October 2018, 120 Ontario business executives wrote an open letter to Ford, pleading that the program be reinstated because it would “replace inefficient welfare programs, encourage work” and give people more money to spend on goods the CEOs sell. Low wages and a shrinking middle class make “left vs. right views on welfare reform and laziness” obsolete, the letter said.8

Meanwhile, four recipients sued over the loss of their income, but in February 2019, an Ontario Superior Court rejected their suit. Some of the plaintiffs then filed a class-action suit against the government, set to be heard this June.9

Preliminary findings from the project released last June found that it had helped 88 percent of recipients feel less stress and anxiety and 73 percent less depression; 32 percent were able to go back to school or upgrade skills; and 45 percent reported fewer health problems, among other findings.10

Those results did not surprise Jessie Golem, a Hamilton resident who participated in the program, and also a photographer who created a photo series showing some of the people who had lost benefits when the program was canceled. “People saw it as a motivation to work,” she says. “I never met anybody who sat on their ass playing video games using free money from the government.”

Finland — A much-publicized basic income experiment, which gave 2,000 unemployed Finns a monthly income equivalent to $634, ran from January 2017 through December 2018. It found that recipients were no more likely than others in a control group to find jobs, leading some to say the program failed.11 However, recipients were happier, less stressed and more trusting of people and social institutions than an unemployed control group who relied on unemployment insurance rather than a guaranteed income.12 Beginning in January 2018, the Finnish government tightened restrictions on unemployment insurance, so people who were considered to not be actively looking for jobs lost their benefits. The system has been criticized as overly bureaucratic compared to the free cash provided by the basic income experiment.13

More results are expected this year, as researchers continue to evaluate the data.

Kenya — The New York-based charity GiveDirectly has been providing unconditional cash to impoverished residents of Kenyan villages for a decade, and in 2016 started a $30 million basic income project. To date, approximately 20,000 people in 197 villages have received funds as part of this project, according to GiveDirectly.14 Studies have shown positive effects on recipients, such as less hunger, greater happiness and the ability to start local businesses.15

A young boy stands outside his house in the Siaya District, Kenya, where villagers have received unconditional cash payments from GiveDirectly. The New York-based charity has been providing cash to impoverished Kenyans for a decade; in 2016, it began a $30 million basic income project which, to date, has provided approximately 20,000 people in 197 villages with funds. (AP Photo/picture-alliance/dpa/Gioia Forster)

A new study also found that recipients spent some of their money in neighboring villages, providing a spillover boost to the regional economy, with no appreciable inflation.16

— Lorna Collier

[1] Dylan Matthews, “More than 50,000 people are set to get a basic income in a Brazilian city,” Vox, Oct. 30, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y42v5j8g. The final enrollment figure was 42,000, according to a Jain Institute spokesperson.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Tim Sandle, “Young Koreans to be given $833 in basic income trial,” Digital Journal, April 22, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/sjoh9xd.

[4] Ock Hyun-ju, “Basic income experiments gain momentum,” The Korea Herald, June 4, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rygvkxf.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Tracey Lindeman, “A lawsuit to save Ontario's basic income program has failed,” Canada's National Observer, Feb. 15, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y54lugwl.

[7] “‘Something called a job’ is the way out of poverty, not basic income, Ford says,” CBC News, Oct. 26, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/r3obdxw.

[8] Jordan Pearson, “Why CEOs Love Basic Income,” Vice, Oct. 18, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/rsjsod3; “Canadian CEOs are deeply worried about the future of the economy. They shared those concerns in a letter to the Ontario Government last October,” CEOs for Basic Income, Oct. 18, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/ua676x3.

[9] Lindeman, op. cit.; Roderick Benns, “Class action law suit on basic income set for June, 2020, say Toronto lawyers,” The Lindsay Advocate, Sept. 10, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/tn6xjdk.

[10] André Coelho, “Canada: Report ‘Signposts to Success’ shows how beneficial the cancelled Ontario basic income experiment was being,” Basic Income Earth Network, June 5, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/w3qr3tm.

[11] Ashitha Nagesh, “Finland basic income trial left people ‘happier but jobless,’” BBC News, Feb. 8, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y2ltqtwa.

[12] Kati Pohjanpalo, “Finland's Basic Income Experiment Shows Recipients Are Happier and More Secure,” Bloomberg News, April 4, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y6lj6v3r.

[13] Antti Jauhiainen and Joona-Hermanni Mäkinen, “Universal Basic Income Didn't Fail in Finland. Finland Failed It,” The New York Times, May 2, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/yaw7uu5h.

[14] “Basic Income,” GiveDirectly, https://tinyurl.com/umm34ys.

[15] David Kestenbaum, “What Happens When You Just Give Money To Poor People?” NPR, Oct. 25, 2013, https://tinyurl.com/sl35pee.

[16] Dylan Matthews, “A charity dropped a massive stimulus package on rural Kenya — and transformed the economy,” Vox, Nov. 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rtvhjb8.

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Bibliography

Books

Cass, Oren , The Once and Future Worker: A Vision for the Renewal of Work in America , Encounter Books, 2018. The former policy director for Mitt Romney's presidential campaign calls a universal basic income (UBI) “disastrous for society.”

Gentilini, Ugo , et al., Exploring Universal Basic Income: A Guide to Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices , World Bank, 2020. The international development bank examines UBI programs, proposals and research findings.

Hughes, Chris , Fair Shot: Rethinking Inequality and How We Earn , St. Martin's, 2018. The Facebook co-founder calls for a guaranteed income for working people to combat income disparity, end poverty and rebuild the middle class.

Lowrey, Annie , Give People Money: How a Universal Basic Income Would End Poverty, Revolutionize Work, and Remake the World , Crown, 2018. An economic journalist examines direct cash transfer programs and concludes that a UBI would benefit the United States.

Stern, Andy , Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream , Public Affairs, 2016. The former labor leader calls for a UBI to protect the lower and middle classes from job losses due to automation.

Yang, Andrew , The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future , Hachette, 2019. The former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate says a UBI would provide income security, economic revitalization and support for uncompensated labor, such as caregiving.

Articles

Amadeo, Kimberley , “Universal Basic Income, Its Pros and Cons With Examples,” The Balance, updated June 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y8srqzuz. A reporter explores the UBI movement in depth.

Cass, Oren , “Why a Universal Basic Income Is a Terrible Idea,” National Review, June 15, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/veg82gn. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, examines UBI implementation challenges and concludes that it should not be adopted.

Durana, Alieza , “Three New Findings Show Us How a Universal Basic Income Might Work,” Slate, May 10, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/y7r425uo. A reporter reviews findings from UBI programs in Canada, New York and Colombia and discovers health benefits to participants.

Floyd, David , “The Long, Weird History of Basic Income — And Why It's Back,” Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/svg4qlg. A financial writer reviews the history and status of UBI policies.

Jarvis, James , “Universal basic income advocates warn Yang's ‘Freedom Dividend’ would harm low-income Americans,” The Hill, Oct. 15, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/u8xkawa. Economists and organizations that promote a UBI express concerns that the version proposed by Yang could deprive poor people of financial support by cutting some safety-net programs.

Reports and Studies

“Basic income in cities: A guide to city experiments and pilot projects,” National League of Cities and the Stanford Basic Income Lab, November 2018, https://tinyurl.com/sv8evvv. Researchers examine why and how cities are instituting basic income projects and provide a policy guide for officials considering such programs.

Hoynes, Hillary W., and Jesse Rothstein , “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2019, https://tinyurl.com/wevcahq. Economists find that UBIs in countries with existing safety nets would direct more money to middle-income households than to lower-income households.

Muro, Mark, Robert Maxim and Jacob Whiton, with contributions from Ian Hathaway , “Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How machines are affecting people and places,” Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institute, January 2019, https://tinyurl.com/yzxoe7sq. Researchers estimate that 25 percent of U.S. jobs (36 million in 2016) face “high exposure to automation in the coming decades.”

Nikiforos, Michalis, Marshall Steinbaum and Gennaro Zezza , “Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of a Universal Basic Income,” The Roosevelt Institute, August 2017, https://tinyurl.com/tcqznld. Researchers estimate the economic effects of three types of UBI programs over eight years and find that the impact of such systems depends on how the program is financed.

Ruckert, Arne; Chau Huynh and Ronald Labonté , “Reducing health inequities; Is universal basic income the way forward?” Journal of Public Health, March 2018, https://tinyurl.com/upy2fjz. Canadian epidemiology researchers find that universal basic income programs have helped improve health outcomes for participants.

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The Next Step

Alternatives to UBI

Bonn, Tess , “Sanders criticizes Yang's universal basic income proposal: ‘People want to work,’” The Hill, Aug. 27, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y4hhnsvd. Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders said a universal jobs guarantee would better address unemployment caused by automation than a universal basic income (UBI).

Frost, Amber A'Lee , “Andrew Yang and the Failson Mystique,” Jacobin, Sept. 18, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/yya7xcpe. A feminist author argues for a job guarantee and unfavorably compares the possibility of a life without work and a universal basic income to the life of a housewife in the 1950s.

Matthews, Dylan , “Rashida Tlaib wants to give low-income adults $3,000 a year each, no questions asked,” Vox, June 12, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/yyzcc5cd. Rep. Rashid Tlaib, a Democrat from Michigan, has introduced a bill that would provide a basic income for the working poor and those with no income.

Earned Income Tax Credit

“Do I Qualify for the EITC?” Internal Revenue Service, Feb. 4, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/jmbvhle. The Internal Revenue Service explains who qualifies for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), an alternative to the UBI that provides tax credits for low-wage workers.

Bittle, Matt , “Bill would expand Earned Income Tax Credit,” Delaware State News, Jan, 29, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/v6nm5k3. The Delaware Legislature is considering adding a refundable option to the state's EITC and making another 17,000 residents eligible for the program.

Soliel, Camille , “Oregon Continues to Lag in the Number of Families Claiming Their Earned Income Tax Credit,” Willamette Week, Jan. 30, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/ryn73mr. According to a recent study, eligible Oregon households collectively lost $137 million in unclaimed EITC benefits in 2016, possibly due to confusion about tax processes and a lack of awareness of the program's existence.

UBI Abroad

Coelho, Andrew , “Estonia: Governmental officials are convinced basic income is not even worth a feasibility study,” Basic Income Earth Network, Oct. 9, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/temttlu. An organization dedicated to researching universal basic income urged Estonia to study UBI, but the government responded that there was no evidence the existing social system “could be replaced with something more efficient.”

Matthews, Dylan , “A charity dropped a massive stimulus package on rural Kenya — and transformed the economy,” Vox, Nov. 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rtvhjb8. Researchers found that after a charity provided a basic income for some 20,000 rural Kenyan residents, nearby villages benefited as the recipients spent their money.

Reinhart, R.J. , “Universal Basic Income Favored in Canada, U.K. but Not in U.S.,” Gallup, Sept. 30, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y36df6us. Three-quarters of the adult population in the United Kingdom and Canada support UBI, but less than half of the U.S. population does, according to a Gallup Poll.

UBI Experiments

Bean, Adam , “$500 a month for free: Data shows how people spent the money,” The Associated Press, Oct. 3, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y44s7jcr. In an ongoing UBI experiment in Stockton, Calif., most people are spending the money on food, clothing and utility bills.

Hotz, Julia , “What happens when people win this basic income raffle? They have time to find meaning in their lives,” Fast Company, Dec. 2, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/yx2nplyd. A journalist at a business magazine describes a German nonprofit that for five years has funded a raffle to give a year's worth of basic income to lucky winners around the globe.

Samuel, Sigal , “Everywhere basic income has been tried in one map,” Vox, Feb. 19, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/sz9c6u7. More nations are experimenting with UBI experiments as the idea moves into the mainstream, according to a journalist.

Widerquist, Karl , “Big Pilot Project in Namibia Has Positive Impact (from 2008),” Basic Income Earth Network, Feb. 14, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/wglhx7y. In its first six months, a basic income project in Namibia saw marked improvements in child malnutrition, school attendance and economic growth and decreases in poverty-related crime, such as theft, a study shows.

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Contacts

American Enterprise Institute
1789 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20036
202-862-5800
aei.org
Conservative-leaning public policy think tank that analyzes economics, poverty and other issues, including universal income.

Basic Income Earth Network
c/o Chaire Hoover d'éthique économique et sociale, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Montesquieu, 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
basicincome.org
International network of academics and activists interested in basic income; publishes news updates, maintains archive of books and reports on basic income and arranges conferences every other year.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
1275 First St., N.E., Suite 1200, Washington, DC 20002
202-408-1080
cbpp.org
Nonpartisan think tank that researches and advocates for progressive policies to reduce poverty and inequality; has written critically about universal basic income's potential impact.

Economic Security Project
economicsecurityproject.org
Organization that provides grants, research, consulting services and other support for guaranteed income pilots and programs.

GiveDirectly
PO Box 3221, New York, NY 10008
givedirectly.org
Charitable organization that provides direct cash assistance to people living in poverty; in 2017 it launched 12-year universal basic income experiment in Kenya.

Jain Family Institute
jainfamilyinstitute.org
Social science research organization founded in 2014 that researches and analyzes universal basic income projects; publishes weekly newsletter.

Stanford Basic Income Lab
Stanford Law School, Crown Building, 3rd floor, Stanford, CA 94305
650-498-1733
basicincome.stanford.edu
Central resource for research into universal basic income; created in 2017, it features a list of ongoing basic income experiments, a toolkit for cities wishing to set up their own pilot projects, information about UBI-related courses, fellowship opportunities and news updates.

U.S. Basic Income Guarantee Network
usbig.net
Nonprofit founded in 1999 to promote discussion of basic income in the U.S.; provides news updates and other resources and co-hosts an annual conference.

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Footnotes

[1] Matthew J. Belvedere, “Facebook co-founder Hughes: The digital economy is ‘going to continue to destroy’ jobs in America,” CNBC, Feb. 20, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/yd9klcue.

[2] Tess Bonn, “Voter support for universal basic income grows: poll,” The Hill, Sept. 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y44sz942.

[3] Quentin Fottrell, “When Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerburg sound the same dire warning about jobs, it's time to listen,” MarketWatch, July 7, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/tcbptw4.

[4] “A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation,” The Economist, April 24, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/y5ebv7f6.

[5] James Manyika et al., “Jobs lost, jobs gained: What the future of work will mean for jobs, skills, and wages,” McKinsey & Company, November 2017, https://tinyurl.com/y62qktu8.

[6] Annie Nova and John W. Schoen, “Automation threatening 25% of jobs in the US, especially the ‘boring and repetitive’ ones: Brookings study,” CNBC, Jan. 27, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/ycr2j63s; Robert Maxim and Mark Muro, “Automation and AI will disrupt the American labor force. Here's how we can protect workers,” Brookings Institution, Feb. 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y2scmty3.

[7] Lawrence Mishel and Josh Bivens, “The zombie robot argument lurches on,” Economic Policy Institute, May 24, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/yazbbb9r; Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, “Revisiting the risk of automation,” Economics Letters, Vol. 159, October 2017, pp. 157-160, https://tinyurl.com/sxex3na.

[8] Taylor Telford, “Income inequality in America is the highest it's been since Census Bureau started tracking it, data shows,” The Washington Post, Sept. 26, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y5ugcdsd; Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman, “Low-wage work is more pervasive than you think, and there aren't enough ‘good jobs’ to go around,” Brookings Institution, Nov. 21, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/uff3sxj; and “Report on the Economic Well-being of U.S. Households in 2018,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2019 (revised Jan. 30, 2020), https://tinyurl.com/y2snjdkw.

[9] “The Freedom Dividend,” Yang2020, https://tinyurl.com/ulqctpf.

[10] Meera Jagannathan, “Andrew Yang says $1,000 a month for every American will create a ‘trickle-up economy’ — here's what 2020 Democrats say about universal basic income,” MarketWatch, Oct. 16, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/u5vrjsz; Dylan Matthews, “Study: a universal basic income would grow the economy,” Vox, Aug. 30, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/y9let5q7.

[11] “Preliminary results of the basic income experiment: self-perceived wellbeing improved, during the first year no effects on employment,” press release, Kela and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, Feb. 8, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y9vzhuae; Evelyn L. Forget, “The Town with No Poverty: The Health Effects of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment,” Canadian Public Policy, Oct. 1, 2011, https://tinyurl.com/rbmaz9d; and Louise Haagh and Barbara Rohregger, “Universal basic income policies and their potential for addressing health inequities,” World Health Organization, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/wva8bb7.

[12] “The Magnolia Mother's Trust,” Initial Pilot Report, Springboard to Opportunities, https://tinyurl.com/sepaz87.

[13] Elizabeth Rhodes, “Basic Income Research Proposal,” Y Combinator Research blog, Sept. 20, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/w3gfd6p.

[14] “Baby's First Years,” ClinicalTrials.gov, https://tinyurl.com/rggyy6b.

[15] “Earned Income Tax Credit Income Limits and Maximum Credit Amounts,” Internal Revenue Service, https://tinyurl.com/u5hfgtu; “Policy Basics: The Earned Income Tax Credit,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Dec. 10, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/vkbz9wt.

[16] “Policy Basics: The Earned Income Tax Credit,” ibid.

[17] Catherine Clifford, “Facebook co-founder's $10 million initiative to test if cash handouts will help America,” CNBC, Dec. 9, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/rzg43es.

[18] “The Cost-of-Living Refund fights inequality and the rising cost of living,” Economic Security Project, https://tinyurl.com/veshcw8.

[19] “Total population by child and adult populations in the United States,” The Annie E. Casey Foundation Kids Count Data Center, https://tinyurl.com/yxbxaqeo.

[20] Matthews, op. cit.

[21] Kyle Pomerleau, “Does Andrew Yang's ‘Freedom Dividend’ Proposal Add Up?” Tax Foundation, July 24, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rgmrd4y.

[22] Catherine Clifford, “This free cash plan would pay you $1,320 per month and wouldn't cost the government a cent,” CNBC Money, Jan. 14, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/stnfmdc; Louis Jacobson, “Andrew Yang's universal basic income proposal, explained,” Politifact, Aug. 12, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/ruxpa5d.

[23] Jordan Malter, “‘I'm not a UBI guy’: Paul Krugman says money could be better spent on more targeted programs,” CNBC, April 23, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y3ek5k5e.

[24] Dylan Matthews, “Hillary Clinton almost ran for president on a universal basic income,” Vox, Sept. 12, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/r37j4f3.

[25] Hilary W. Hoynes and Jesse Rothstein, “Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries,” National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2019, https://tinyurl.com/wevcahq.

[26] “Policy Basics: The Child Tax Credit,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Dec. 10, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/unaq3oq.

[27] Matt Jensen, “Exploring a budget-neutral UBI,” American Enterprise Institute, Jan. 6, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/twkdwlr.

[28] Dylan Matthews, “More than 50,000 people are set to get a basic income in a Brazilian city,” Vox, Oct. 30, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y42v5j8g. The final enrollment figure was 42,000, according to a spokesperson.

[29] Kimberly Amadeo, “Federal Poverty Level Guidelines and Chart,” The Balance, Feb. 7, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/jsznyxm. For the contiguous 48 states and Washington, D.C., the poverty level is $12,760; and $14,680 for Hawaii.

[30] Ioana Marinescu, “No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs,” The Roosevelt Institute, May 2017, https://tinyurl.com/y6wekz2j.

[31] “The Freedom Dividend, Defined,” Yang2020, https://tinyurl.com/y5uzzatb.

[32] Ibid.

[33] June Javelosa, “Bill Gates: The World Isn't Ready for Universal Basic Income Now, But We Will be Soon,” Futurism, Feb. 28, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/takz2zd.

[34] “Universal basic income is a silly idea: Art Laffer,” Fox Business News, July 3, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/wufqeur.

[35] Jacobson, op. cit.

[36] Oren Cass, “Why a Universal Basic Income Is a Terrible Idea,” National Review, June 15, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/veg82gn.

[37] Tom Kertscher, “‘Baby's First Years’ Offers First U.S. Study to Assess Impact of Poverty Reduction on Infant and Toddler Development,” Early Learning Nation, May 18, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/v5mk4df.

[38] Marinescu, op. cit.

[39] Ibid.; Annie Lowrey, Give People Money (2018), p. 66.

[40] Timothy Williams, “$1 Million Each Year for All, as Long as Tribe's Luck Holds,” The New York Times, Aug. 9, 2012, https://tinyurl.com/v2t7xfq.

[41] “What are the benefits of a Freedom Dividend,” Yang2020, https://tinyurl.com/tsjdwfm; Dan Human, “Advocacy group waging war against welfare ‘cliff effect,’” Indianapolis Business Journal, Jan. 17, 2013, https://tinyurl.com/u7ceefz.

[42] Matthew Keegan, “Benefit or burden? The cities trying out universal basic income,” The Guardian, June 27, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/y8r8dfyb.

[43] Lowrey, op. cit., pp. 29-30.

[44] Simon Birnbaum and Karl Widerquist, “History of Basic Income,” Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN), https://tinyurl.com/y75ttfwe; Lowrey, ibid., p. 30.

[45] Philippe Van Parijs and Yannick Vanderborght, Basic Income: A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy (2017), p. 52.

[46] Ibid., pp. 56-57.

[47] Andy Stern, Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream (2016), p. 172; Birnbaum and Widerquist, op. cit.; David Floyd, “The Long, Weird History of Basic Income — And Why It's Back,” Investopedia, June 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/svg4qlg; and Eric Nye, “Pounds Sterling to Dollars: Historical Conversion of Currency,” University of Wyoming, https://tinyurl.com/ycfoqydc.

[48] Birnbaum and Widerquist, op. cit.

[49] Nathan Heller, “Who Really Stands to Win From Universal Basic Income?” The New Yorker, July 2, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/y9ssr9ew.

[50] Rutger Bregman, “The bizarre tale of President Nixon and his basic income bill,” The Correspondent, May 17, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/ya7h5dxb.

[51] Birnbaum and Widerquist, op. cit.

[52] Ibid.

[53] Ibid.

[54] Ibid.; Stern, op. cit., p. 172.

[55] “New Deal,” History.com , Nov. 27, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/up9g4fb.

[56] Floyd, op. cit.; “Share Our Wealth,” Long Legacy Site, https://tinyurl.com/y3qf4ehz; “Huey Long's Senate Speeches,” Social Security History, Social Security Administration, https://tinyurl.com/th9j6ht; and CPI Inflation Calculator, https://tinyurl.com/rp8hk2b.

[57] Edwin Amenta, “What history tells us about Andrew Yang's universal basic income plan,” PBS News Hour, Oct 16, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/qtrz45y.

[58] “Historical Background and Development of Social Security,” Social Security Administration, https://tinyurl.com/h2m7wps.

[59] Amenta, op. cit.; Linda Gordon and Felice Batlan, “Aid to Dependent Children: The Legal History,” Virginia Commonwealth University Social Welfare History Project, https://tinyurl.com/vme3swc; “Policy Basics: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Feb. 6, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/swk3utw; and “What is the history of the minimum wage?” Center for Poverty Research, University of California, Davis, https://tinyurl.com/yargtj28.

[60] Amenta, op. cit.; Martha A. McSteen, “Fifty Years of Social Security,” Social Security History, Social Security Administration, https://tinyurl.com/y5uf8xsj.

[61] Floyd, op. cit.

[62] Birnbaum and Widerquist, op. cit.; Chris Weller, “Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, and Jamie Dimon all agree on a little-known tax that pays poor people,” Business Insider, Jan. 29, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/wfa7vlq.

[63] Stern, op. cit., p. 174; Floyd, op. cit.

[64] Stern, ibid., pp. 174-175.

[65] Daniel P. Moynihan, The Politics of a Guaranteed Income (1973), p. 50; Birnbaum and Widerquist, op. cit.

[66] Birnbaum and Widerquist, ibid.; Jeremy S. Bluhm, “Are you kidding, George? $1,000 a person?” The Harvard Crimson, June 14, 1973, https://tinyurl.com/uhfcrsd.

[67] Karl Widerquist, “The Basic Income Guarantee Experiments of the 1970s: a quick summary of results,” Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN), Dec. 3, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/sh7md7g.

[68] Karl Widerquist, “A Failure to Communicate: What (if Anything) Can we Learn from the Negative Income Tax Experiments?” Journal of Socio-Economics, January 2005, pp. 49-81, https://tinyurl.com/ybn9rsve.

[69] “Moynihan Says Recent Studies Raise Doubts about ‘Negative Income Tax’ Proposals,” The New York Times, Nov. 16, 1978, https://tinyurl.com/w4h2kmd.

[70] Forget, op. cit.

[71] Alex DeMarban, “This year's Alaska Permanent Fund dividend: $1,606,” Anchorage Daily News, Sept. 28, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/t6amqhw.

[72] Margot L. Crandall-Hollick, “The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC): A Brief Legislative History,” Congressional Research Service, March 20, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/y4cslw2e.

[73] Chuck Marr, “Reagan's Actions Made Him a True EITC Champion,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities blog, Aug. 1, 2014, https://tinyurl.com/tce9e3t.

[74] Dylan Matthews, “‘If the goal was to get rid of poverty, we failed’: the legacy of the 1996 welfare reform,” Vox, June 20, 2016, https://tinyurl.com/qo6c9q7.

[75] “About TANF,” Office of Family Assistance, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, July 19, 2019, http://tinyurl.com/ybdzd8yf; AFDC and TANF Overview, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Nov. 30, 2009, https://tinyurl.com/ragrb3x.

[76] Greg Kaufmann, “How a Guaranteed Income Could Relieve the ‘Pressure Cooker’ of Poverty,” The Nation, Oct. 1, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/u697vj8; Ife Floyd, Ashley Burnside and Liz Schott, “TANF Reaching Few Poor Families,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Nov. 28, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/wezso9h.

[77] “History of Indian Gaming,” Minnesota Indian Gaming Association, https://tinyurl.com/tyy9dh8; Marinescu, op. cit.; and Moises Velasquez-Manoff, “What happens when the poor receive a stipend?” The New York Times, Jan. 18, 2014, https://tinyurl.com/ydbhrztk.

[78] Charles Murray, In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State (2006; updated June 2016).

[79] “Why Murray's Big Idea Won't Work,” The Atlantic, April 2006, https://tinyurl.com/u7s65p9.

[80] “Income Inequality in the United States,” Inequality.org, https://tinyurl.com/yarsyog5.

[81] Richard Feloni, “Alaska's Republican governor wants to give every resident more than $4,000 for the next 3 years, but not everyone is happy,” Business Insider, Feb. 20, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y2hrrc75; Jennifer Williams, “Registration is Open For The 2020 Permanent Fund Dividend,” KSRM, Jan. 13, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/t84jkl9.

[82] Damon Jones and Ioana Marinescu, “The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund,” The National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2018 (revised January 2020), https://tinyurl.com/tdsqotp.

[83] Karl Widerquist, “Current UBI Experiments: An Update for July 2018,” Basic Income Earth Network, July 1, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/rff7e2u; Sigal Samuel, “Everywhere basic income has been tried, in one map,” Vox, Feb. 19, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/sz9c6u7.

[84] “Bill S. 84: An Act Relative to Universal Basic Income,” The 191st General Court of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/todoc26.

[85] “Senate Bill S6696,” The New York State Senate, https://tinyurl.com/s4to4rq.

[86] “Sen. Carlucci introduces bill to tax online companies for using people's personal data,” News12 Long Island, Dec. 5, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/qup78yd; “New York Senate Bill 6102,” LegiScan, https://tinyurl.com/uh6apbb.

[87] “21st Century Policies,” James Felton Keith campaign, https://tinyurl.com/thtjnst.

[88] Jazmine Ulloa, “Newsom wants companies collecting personal data to share the wealth with Californians,” Los Angeles Times, May 5, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/y6d374gw.

[89] Scott Thistle, “Money for all: Panel to explore idea of basic income payments for Mainers,” Portland Press Herald, Nov. 22, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/t77mqor; “S.P. 412/LD 1324,” State of Maine, text of bill approved by Gov. Janet Mills on June 19, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/u3jp2uy.

[90] “Hawaii Lawmakers Propose Package to Reduce Income Inequality,” Big Island Video News, Jan. 15, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/yxxh4v8h.

[91] Olivia Peterkin, “Hawaii has one of the lowest poverty rates in the U.S. — until you factor in the cost of living,” Pacific Business News, Sept. 12, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/uazldku.

[92] Rich Williams, “State, Federal Governments Getting Behind Earned Income Tax Credits,” NCSL blog, National Conference of State Legislatures, Jan. 22, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/sf99lxs.

[93] See LegiScan search for each state at https://tinyurl.com/tmdqhr8; Daniel J. Munoz, “Murphy admin proposes ramping up tax credit for NJ's lowest-earning residents,” NJBiz, Feb. 25, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/r9l9ng5.

[94] Benjamin Wood, “Utah Legislature repeals tax reform in a pair of overwhelming votes,” The Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 29, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/ucapsw5; Jared Walczak, “Utah Passes Tax Reform Bill in Special Session,” Tax Foundation, Dec. 12, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rtnz5cs.

[95] Helen Smith, “Chicago Resilient Task Force Recommends Guaranteed Income Pilot Program,” Harris Public Policy, University of Chicago, Feb. 25, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/vspwpu3.

[96] Steve Wamhoff, “Rep. Tlaib's Tax Credit Proposal Is Most Expansive to Date,” Just Taxes, Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, June 26, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/rt27wuf.

[97] Matt Stevens, “Kamala Harris on the LIFT Act,” The New York Times, June 27, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/yx9tvrpw; Sam Adler-Bell, “Democrats Want to be Economic Populists. Why Are They Clinging to a Flawed Reagan-Era Tax Credit?” The Intercept, Oct. 19, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/vhmge9y.

[98] Dylan Matthews, “Mitt Romney and Michael Bennet just unveiled a basic income plan for kids,” Vox, Dec. 16, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/wz7gglw.

[99] Richard Williams, “Expanding Earned Income Tax Credits for Childless Workers,” National Conference of State Legislatures, Dec. 9, 2019, https://tinyurl.com/uzyzdq4; “H.R. 3300: Economic Mobility Act of 2019,” GovTrack, https://tinyurl.com/qua45cn.

[100] “S.1138 — A bill to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to expand the earned income and child tax credits, and for other purposes,” Congress.gov, https://tinyurl.com/syqwjw4; James Crowley, ‘Grim Reaper’ Mitch McConnell Admits There Are 395 House Bills Sitting In The Senate: ‘We're Not Going To Pass Those,’” Newsweek, Feb. 14, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/s4be47a.

[101] Meera Jagannathan, “As Andrew Yang drops out, here's what other 2020 Democrats say about universal basic income,” MarketWatch, Feb. 13, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/yxgszdsz; Clio Chang, “Yang Is Gone But We Should Still Talk About Giving People Free Money,” Vice, Feb. 12, 2020, https://tinyurl.com/ruyjtco.

[102] Ibid.

[103] Ibid.; “Jobs and an Economy for All,” Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign website, https://tinyurl.com/qsvu8d6.

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About the Author

Lorna Collier has written about education and technology for the Chicago Tribune, U.S. News & World Report, AARP Bulletin, KQED Mindshift, GetEducated.com and many others. She has written on school safety for CQ Researcher.

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